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Weekend BO Predictions: ‘Rampage’ Aims For The Numer One Spot

Written by Dapo Olowu

The top ten films in the US box office will have four new wide releases to contend with this weekend, including The Rock’s new action movie ‘Rampage’. After ‘A Quiet Place’s ‘ huge $50m opening last week, will it manage to keep the top spot for a second weekend in a row, or will Dwayne Johnson’s monkey madness run riot?

So, what’s opening this weekend?

After ‘Jumanji’ was officially confirmed as Sony’s biggest ever domestic hit (beating Raimi’s Spider-Man’s total of $403.71m with $403.74m and counting), Dwayne Johnson: the man, the legend, The Rock crashes into 4,000 cinemas with the $120m, ‘Rampage’. The loose adaptation of the video game of the same name also stars Jeffrey Dean Morgan and Jake Lacy, as well as Oscar-nominee, Naomie Harris.

When it comes to giant monkeys, ‘Kong: Skull Island’ immediately springs to mind as the type of movie to base ‘Rampage’ predictions around. Kong’s $61m opening, however, is way beyond what The Rock’s newest film is looking to make – so, we’re predicting a much meeker Friday-to-Sunday start for the Gorilla-flick with around $36m, similar to 2016’s ‘Tarzan’. This should be enough for number one though, unless ‘A Quiet Place’ springs in with a loud (heh) surprise. Star power is the name of the game here, so with DJ arguably being the most bankable actor in the world at the moment, we expect to see much bigger numbers overseas.

Next on the list of newbies is Blumhouse’s (‘Get Out’, ‘Insidious, Split’) horror film, ‘Truth or Dare’. With 18% on Rotten Tomatoes, ‘Truth or Dare’ comes out just a week after ‘A Quiet Place’, which’ll most probably hurt the former over the latter. Though, a nice little selling point for them is the cast; with young talent like ‘Pretty Little Liars’ Lucy Hale, and ‘Teen Wolf’s’ Tyler Posey, Truth or Dare will look to draw in the under-25 crowd this weekend and, honestly, we reckon it’ll play similar to 2017’s ‘The Bye Bye Man’ with around $12.5m. It was only made for $3.5M anyway, so with its cliff-side drop-off next week, it’ll at least break-even.

Although not technically a new release, ‘Isle of Dogs’ opens wide (anything over 600 cinemas) at 1,939 movie theatres, and looks to cement a place in the top 5. Will it? Not too sure, it’s a difficult one to predict. This’ll probably make around $10m this weekend but, it could go in any direction, so don’t quote us on that.

‘Sgt. Stubby: An American Hero’, the animated adventure film based on the WW1 hero-dog (nope, never heard of him either) rounds up this weekend’s new releases. Fun fact: this is the first time we’ve had 2 wide-release dog-centric movies in 12 years, since ‘Doogal’ opened a week after ‘Eight Below’ in February 2006. But, since it’s only opening in around 1,700 cinemas, we’re looking at 2016’s ‘Ratchet & Clank’ and 2017’s ‘Rock Dog’ for guidance, so, an opening of around $4m is likely.

What else is on?

‘A Quiet Place’ looks to dampen ‘Rampage’s’ #1 ambitions in its second week of showings. John Krasinski’s lauded horror should be immune to ‘Truth or Dare’ this weekend, so don’t be surprised if this continues to mirror the run of 2017’s ‘Split’ – whose 35.9% second-weekend drop would give ‘A Quiet Place’ a second-weekend total of $32.2m, more than enough for a number 2 spot.

‘Ready Player One’s biggest competition is ‘Rampage’, with both films combining sci-fi & adventure genres unlike typical horror, ‘Truth or Dare’. From this, we’re looking at a third weekend drop a little higher than last week’s 41%, for a total of $13.5m, just beating ‘Truth or Dare’ for third.

R-rated comedy, ‘Blockers’, is much safer in this aspect, so I’m looking at a second weekend total of $10.8m (a 48% drop). Our full predictions for the top ten films in the Box Office this weekend is below – we don’t check the estimates of experts before we do ours, so let’s hope it’s us that wins this round.

Rank Last Week Rank Film Budget Jumpcut prediction Weekend drop Week no. Deadline prediction BoxOfficeMojo prediction Variety prediction
1 Rampage $120m $36m 1 $35m-$40m $34m $37m-$40m
2 1 A Quiet Place $17m $32.2m -35.9% 2 $32.5m-$35m $30m-$32.5m $28m-$30m
3 2 Ready Player One $175m $13.5m -45% 3 $14m $12m-$15m
4 Truth or Dare $3.5m $12.5m 1 $14m-$16m $15m-$17m $16m
5 3 Blockers $21m $10.8m -47.6% 2 $12m-$14m $12m $12m-$15m
6 10 Isle of Dogs $10m +119.2% 4 $5m
7 4 Black Panther $200m $6.1m -30% 9 $6m
8 6 I Can Only Imagine $7m $5.7m -27% 5 $5.1m
9 Sgt. Stubby $25m $4.2m 1 $2m $1m-$3m <$5m
10 5 Tyler Perry’s Acrimony $20m $3.8m -55% 3 $3.6m
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