Weekend BO Predictions: ‘Rampage’ vs. ‘A Quiet Place’ 2: Electric Booglaoo

Written by Dapo Olowu

Three new films are released wide this weekend in the US, led by Amy Schumer’s feel-good comedy, ‘I Feel Pretty’. Not forgetting, it’s also another Box Office title-fight between ‘Rampage’ and ‘A Quiet Place’, mirroring last week’s close encounter. Will The Rock deliver the knockout again, or will ‘A Quiet Place’ finally prevail?

So, what’s opening this weekend?

Opening in 3,000 cinemas is ‘I Feel Pretty’, the PG-13 comedy that cost a pricey $32m and completes the trilogy of Amy Schumer-led films in recent years. After the success of 2015’s ‘Trainwreck’, and the disappointment of 2017’s ‘Snatched’ (both R-rated), it’s safe to say that STXfilms (of ‘Bad Moms’ fame) will be hoping ‘I Feel Pretty’ continues where ‘Trainwreck’ left off, and lands big.

However, it’s a hard one to predict. Its poor 35% on Rotten Tomatoes won’t allow for the greatest word-of-mouth, and Amy Schumer’s waning popularity means that she isn’t as big of a draw as she was 3 years ago (all-in-all, making for a weak opening). But, on the other hand, being rated PG-13 opens it up to a wider audience and we should never underestimate the allure of original comedic content, especially in the aftermath of ‘Game Night’ and ‘Blockers’. Our prediction? The young, female audience that ‘I Feel Pretty’ is aiming for might have already had their fill in the last couple of weeks, and the critics aren’t pulling their punches with this one, so we’re thinking an opening of $13.5m.

What do you get when you make an R-rated sequel to a 2002 cult classic, that made under $20m domestically, and is opening in only 2,000 cinemas? Well, you get Jay Chandrasekhar’s ‘Super Troopers 2’, the police-comedy that’s even harder to predict than ‘I Feel Pretty’. Seriously, we’ve been left scratching our heads at the comparable obscurity; ‘Zoolander 2’ is too popular, ‘Johnny English: Reborn’ isn’t popular enough. The only thing I was left with, was comparing this to 2016’s unfortunate flop ‘Popstar: Never Stop Never Stopping’, which opened to $4.7m in early July. The lack of ST2’s summer release is offset by its cult following, so we’re set on roughly the $5m mark in its release.

Finally, this weekend gives us ‘Traffik’, starring Omar Epps and Paula Patton. By opening in only 1,000 cinemas, its gross is severely limited, especially as it doesn’t even have the luxury of being based on a book, like 2014’s ‘Addicted’ that opened with an impressive $7.5m from just 850 cinemas. With ‘Traffik’, I’m using the per-cinema average of another recent small release thriller that heavily featured African-Americans: ‘Til Death To Us Part’ (2017). From 560 cinemas, it made on average $2,700 in its first week, which will give ‘Traffik’ a very respectable (and possibly optimistic) $2.7m in its opening weekend.

What else is on?

It’s round 2 of ‘A Quiet Place’ vs. ‘Rampage’ for the number one spot again – both have been near-identical in their daily grosses since last weekend. While many expect the child-friendly ‘Rampage’ to have made more money over the weekend, when kids aren’t in school, ‘A Quiet Place’ has held its own very well, even against competition from ‘Truth or Dare’. After all considerations, we’re going with ‘A Quiet Place’ to win this contest in a close affair.

After ‘Truth or Dare’ surprised us last weekend, with a brilliant gross of $18.7m, normal service should resume with the horror looking to run similarly to ‘Happy Death Day’ and ‘Unfriended’, giving it a pretty big second-weekend drop of over 60%. These ‘teenage’ horror movies are usually front-loaded, so don’t be surprised if it struggles to even hit a 2x domestic gross/opening weekend multiplier – ‘Happy Death Day’ (2.14x) and ‘Unfriended’ (2.05x) barely did.

Ready Player One’ continues to haemorrhage cinemas and could even lose another 200-400 this week, leading to a potential 50% drop in grossing. Meanwhile, ‘Black Panther’ continues its majestic run and will remain firmly in the top 10 this week, continuing its trend of small weekend drops. The latter can’t be said for ‘Blockers’, which will face big competition for viewers with the release of ‘I Feel Pretty’, and may see an even larger weekend drop than last week’s 48%.

Finally, Wes Anderson’s ‘Isle of Dogs’ will look to at least remain stable after a poor showing last week. The number of cinemas it showed in rose by 350%, but its weekend grossing only increased by 20%, a poor number whichever way you look at it. We’re thinking it’ll play more like Fantastic Mr. Fox did in 2009, after its wide release, and will have a pretty substantial drop.

Check out our full predictions below. Do you agree or disagree? Let us know on Twitter by @’ing our handle @JUMPCUT_ONLINE.

Rank Last Week’s Rank Film US Gross so far Budget Jumpcut’s prediction Weekend drop Week no. Deadline’s prediction BoxOfficeMojo’s prediction Variety’s prediction
1 2 A Quiet Place $108m $17m $22.4m -32% 3 $20m-$21m $21m $20m-$25m
2 1 Rampage $43.7m $120m $21.1m -41% 2 $20m-$21m $17m $18m-$20m
3 I Feel Pretty $32m $13.5m 1 $15m $13m-$15m $15m
4 3 Truth or Dare $21.7m $3.5m $7.1m -62% 2 $7.5m
5 4 Ready Player One $117.8m $175m $5.8m -50% 4 $7m
6 5 Blockers $40.4m $21m $5.1m -53% 3 $6.5m
7 Super Troopers 2 $4.4m $5m 1 $6m $6m-$7m $6m
8 6 Black Panther $675.9m $200m $3.9m -33% 10 $3.8m
9 Traffik $2.7m 1 $3m-$4m $3.5m $3m-$4m
10 7 Isle of Dogs $20.5m $2.5m -55% 5 $3.6m
Advertisements

One thought on “Weekend BO Predictions: ‘Rampage’ vs. ‘A Quiet Place’ 2: Electric Booglaoo

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

w

Connecting to %s