Weekend BO Prediction: Forget Infinity Stones – Thanos Aims For The Opening Record

Written by Dapo Olowu

What this weekend lacks in new releases, it more than makes up for in pure spectacle. ‘Avengers: Infinity War’, the culmination of a decade’s-worth of MCU films, opens in the U.S. this Friday, leaving the rest of the Box Office in its wake. The big question is, of course, what records will this break?

So, what’s opening this weekend?

Opening in almost 4,500 cinemas in the U.S. (nearly a record in itself), the Russo brothers flick is looking to break all sorts of records, both in the States and abroad. From Vietnam and India, to Australia and America, it seems as if ‘Infinity War’ is breathing down the neck of various opening weekend records across the globe. Just a couple of weeks ago, its U.S. pre-sales (according to Fandango) were already outpacing the last 7 MCU films combined. Here’s a reminder of the records it may actually achieve this weekend:

  • Sixth film to make over $200m in its opening weekend (after ‘The Force Awakens’, ‘The Last Jedi’, ‘Jurassic World’, ‘The Avengers’, and ‘Black Panther’)
  • Biggest MCU opening (beating ‘The Avengers’ $207.4m in 2012)
  • Biggest pre-summer opening (beating ‘Black Panther’s $202m in 2018)
  • Biggest opening of 2018 so far (beating ‘Black Panther’s $202m in 2018)
  • Biggest April opening (beating ‘Furious 7’s $147.2m in 2015)
  • Biggest Spring opening (beating ‘Beauty and the Beast’s $174.8m in 2017)
  • Biggest worldwide opening (beating ‘Fate of the Furious’ $541.9m in 2017)

What ‘Infinity War’ is really aiming for, is the final jewel in the gauntlet: the domestic opening record. It’s currently held by the biggest film in the U.S. of all time, ‘The Force Awakens’, at $248m, but Marvel will hope to take the crown from their Disney-counterparts over at LucasFilm. We at Jumpcut think it’ll be a tight race, but ‘Infinity War’ may just fall short and reach $240m. With some sites predicting a high of $275m, however, nobody can say for definite where this film will land.

What else is on?

After last week’s close encounter, ‘A Quiet Place’ will put more distance between itself and ‘Rampage’ this weekend. The counter-programming element to ‘AQP’ sets it apart from the rest of the pack, meaning that it won’t drop as much this week as the others will. But, the same can’t be said for ‘Rampage’, which is looking like the first casualty of ‘Infinity War’s introduction. We’re expecting to see close to a 60% drop, as Thanos takes no prisoners in his quest for top spot.

For ‘I Feel Pretty’, which opened to a decent $16m last week, we’re comparing it to ‘Paul Blart: Mall Cop 2’, which dropped by around 60% in its 3rd week in 2015 – after the release of ‘Age of Ultron’ that is. There are multiple differences between the 2 films, but around $7.5m (thus a similar 53% drop) is probable.

The biggest surprise of last weekend, ‘Super Troopers 2’, isn’t looking to replicate the astonishing achievements of its opening. Its daily grosses haven’t been encouraging; its heavy 4/20 Friday promotion and fan-base popularity imply a front-loaded box office run, a point bolstered by the fact that 52% of its opening weekend gross was made on Friday (including Thursday previews). So, we’re predicting a drop between 60-65%, fairing slightly worse than another cult sequel, ‘Harold and Kumar Escape from Guantanamo Bay’ (2008).

Now, here’s a strange one to predict: ‘Black Panther’. Back in 2012 when ‘The Avengers’ was released, we saw quite a large consolation boost to Disney’s flop, ‘John Carter’ at the same time. As it turns out, many cinemas across the U.S. played a Disney-double bill, allowing viewers to watch both at a discount. A similar scenario may play out this weekend with ‘Infinity War’, and we’ve already seen ‘Black Panther’s latest Tuesday and Wednesday grosses improve upon last week’s totals. It can go either way, but we’re thinking it could maybe surprise the rest and get a good boost from ‘Infinity War’. Maybe.

Truth or Dare’ will continue its steep drop by pulling in just over $3m this weekend, as its been unable to establish itself in an already crowded market after an $18.7m opening. Once ‘Ready Player One’ was surprisingly hit hard by ‘Rampage’ a couple of weeks back, I suspect ‘Infinity War’ to turn the screw, with ‘Ready Player One’ pulling in a similar amount to ‘Truth or Dare’. ‘Blockers’ may be insulated, though, and leave this weekend with a decent 50% drop. Finally, its ‘Isle of Dogs’ that rounds off the top 10 again, closely battling ‘Traffik’, but only just prevailing with a $2.1m gross.

What do you think? Will Infinity War break the box office opening record in the US? Will Black Panther get a IW boost? Let us know on Twitter at @JUMPCUT_ONLINE.

Rank Last Week’s Rank Film US Gross so far Budget Jumpcut’s prediction Weekend drop Week no. BoxOfficeMojo’s prediction
1 Avengers: Infinity War $300m+ $240m 1 $230m
2 1 A Quiet Place $136.3m $17m $11.7m -44% 4 $10.2m
3 2 Rampage $70m $120m $8.2m -59% 3 $9m
4 3 I Feel Pretty $20.3m $32m $7.5m -53% 2 $8.9m
5 4 Super Troopers 2 $17.9m $4.4m $5.7m -62.5% 2 $5.9m
6 8 Black Panther $683.1m $200m $5.6m +15% 11 $2.9m
7 7 Blockers $49.9m $21m $3.4m -50% 4 $3.4m
8 5 Truth or Dare $31.8m $3.5m $3.2m -59% 3 $3.7m
9 6 Ready Player One $127.9m $175m $3.2m -57% 5 $3.4m
10 9 Isle of Dogs $4.9m $2m -42% 2 $1.7m
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