Box Office

Weekend BO Predictions: ‘Infinity War’ Continues To Conquer While New Openers Battle For A Top 10 Finish

Written by Dapo Olowu

While ‘Infinity War’ gets ready to enjoy another weekend at the top of the table, three new openers (‘Overboard’, ‘Bad Samaritan’, and ‘Tully’) look to establish themselves in a Box Office weekend that’s as close as ever. The question is, what will drop out of the top ten?

So, what’s opening this weekend?

Firstly, we have ‘Overboard’ starring Anna Faris and Eugenio Derbez, in a gender-swapped remake of the 1987 cult-classic, which featured couple Kurt Russell and Goldie Hawn. What’s interesting here, is its similarities to 2017’s ‘How to Be a Latin Lover’: the producers, production company, lead actor, release date, genre, age-rating, and even the reviews are mirroring the comedy that opened to $12.2m last year. ‘Overboard’ is hoping to emulate Latin Lover’s success with the Hispanic community, and opening in 500 more cinemas could give it that needed boost in the Box Office totals. Diminishing returns from the extra seats may set in, but we predict a solid $14m start nonetheless.

Opening in around 1,350 cinemas is Charlize Theron’s ‘Tully’, a difficult one to predict, as we’d usually expect such a highly rated comedy-drama to have a limited (under 600 cinemas) release at first. From this, we’ve done a bit more maths than we’d have wanted and predicted an opening of around $4.5m, based mainly on the per-cinema averages of similar films, like 2017’s ‘Lady Bird’. Its 90% on Rotten Tomatoes, as well as director Jason Reitman’s previous successes (‘Juno’, ‘Up in the Air’), gives us reason to be optimistic — but this is a poor opening regardless.

Finally, ‘Bad Samaritan’ looks to be the lowest earner from the newbies this weekend, even though it’s the only new release entering at least 2,000 cinemas. ‘Bad Samaritan’ doesn’t even have the luxury of being potential counter-programming to ‘Infinity War’, as direct competitor ‘A Quiet Place’ continues to hold strong in week 5 of its release. We’re using last year’s ‘A Cure for Wellness’s $4.4m opening as a measure: both had middling reviews, both opened during a competitor’s 5th week (‘Split’ had been out for over a month by then), and both had no true star power in the lead roles. ‘Bad Samaritan’, however, also has the looming figure of ‘Infinity War’ clouding its horizon, so we estimate around a gross around $3m.

What else is on?

Infinity War’ will comfortably top the charts by a good $100m+ margin in its second weekend, but will fall short of ‘The Force Awakens’ record of $149.2m, with an estimated $116m (a 55% drop). This is not an issue, as ‘Infinity War’ aims to reach $1bn worldwide by Sunday (without China) and could be the quickest to do this (beating ‘The Force Awakens’ record of 12 days). Even if somehow it doesn’t manage this, it’ll always have the record of out-grossing the entirety of ‘Justice League’ in 3.5 days — a lovely plaque to have on the shelf.

Next, we have ‘A Quiet Place’, which has continued to perform strongly going into its 5th weekend of release. It’ll hope to reach the coveted quarter-of-a-billion dollars mark worldwide by the end of the weekend, with still enough gas in the tank to potentially land in the $270m region. Taking into account ‘Split’s 41% average weekend drop (in wide release) and ‘A Quiet Place’s 39.4% average so far, a 40% fall is a safe bet.

After the release of ‘Overboard’, it isn’t absurd to wonder if this would have a large effect on ‘I Feel Pretty’, which suffers from poorer reviews than the comedy starring Anna Faris. However, being available to watch in 1,500 more cinemas gives it a locational advantage, which should lead to just a 50% drop this week. A similar fall is in store for ‘Rampage’, which could bounce back from the major hit it took during ‘Infinity War’s opening last week.

Black Panther’s resurgence in the wake of ‘Infinity War’ means its sights are firmly on the $700m domestic goal, a feat only two films (‘The Force Awakens’, and ‘Avatar’) have ever achieved. A 30% drop is expected this week as normal service resumes, but I won’t be surprised if it ends in a much lower drop, with filmgoers continuing their MCU double-bills.

The horror ‘Truth or Dare’ has been consistent with its 58% weekend drops, so there’s little reason to deviate from the average here, and it should pull in around $1.3m going into its 4th weekend. Finally, ‘Super Troopers 2’ shouldn’t plunge to the 75%+ depths that it did last weekend, but it won’t be impressing anybody with a $1.3m haul to round off the top 10.

What do you think ‘Infinity War’ will make in its 2nd weekend? Will the new releases impress, or will the older films prevail? Let us know on Twitter – we’re @JUMPCUT_ONLINE.

Rank Last Week’s Rank Film US Gross so far Budget Jumpcut’s prediction Weekend drop Week no. BoxOfficeMojo’s prediction Deadline’s Prediction Variety’s Prediction
1 1 Avengers: Infinity War $322.8m $300m+ $116m -55% 2 $116m $100m-$125m $100m-$130m
2 Overboard $15m $14m 1 $15.2m ~$12.2m $10m-$12m
3 2 A Quiet Place $151.4m $17m $6.6m -40% 5 $6.8m
4 Tully $4.5m $4.1m $3m-$4m $4m
5 3 I Feel Pretty $32.1m $32m $4.1m -50% 3 $4.3m
6 4 Rampage $3.6m -52% 4 $4m
7 5 Black Panther $689.6m $200m $3.3m -30% 12 $3.3m
8 Bad Samaritan $3m $2m $2m
9 7 Truth or Dare $36.2m $3.5m $1.3m -59% 4
10 6 Super Troopers 2 $23.3m $13.5m* $1.3m -66% 3 $1.8m

*I wrongly suggested ‘Super Troopers 2’s budget to be $4.4m in previous posts. Oops.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s