Weekend BO Predictions: ‘Deadpool 2’ Looks To Break Its Own Record As ‘Infinity War’ Grabs 4th on All-Time List
It’s exciting times in the Box Office this weekend, with ‘Deadpool 2’ looking to break its own opening record, as well as ‘Infinity War’s recent dominance, to truly usher in the summer movie season. If that wasn’t enough, two more films (‘Book Club’ and ‘Show Dogs’) enter the running on a weekend looking to be as close as ever.
What’s opening this weekend?
It’s safe to say that 2016’s ‘Deadpool’ was a phenomenon; there’s even an entire Wikipedia page solely dedicated to the Box Office records it broke upon its release. The R-rated, $58m, action comedy, by a first-time director, not only became the biggest X-Men film ever, but also had the biggest February opening in the U.S. of all time at $132.4m (before ‘Black Panther’ made $202m this year). So, a sequel was always to be hotly anticipated, but with the release just weeks after ‘Infinity War’, you’d be quickly forgiven to say that excitement for ‘D2’ has been relatively muted.
The fears are justified; long-range tracking had the film opening way below the heights ‘Deadpool’ reached 2 years ago. However, ‘Deadpool 2’ soon began to break pre-sale records, coupled with Ryan Reynolds & Co.’s viral marketing campaigns, and an ever-so-slightly better 84% on Rotten Tomatoes, it quickly established itself as the next big film to see. The sequel aspect is important here too, as it doesn’t need to build an audience like its predecessor did: it already has one. From this (alongside its R-rated record $18.6m from Thursday previews), we’re predicting a stronger opening of over $140m — breaking its own R-rated domestic opening records in the process, and even aiming for the global opening crown too.
Whilst the ‘Deadpool’ franchise thrives on is its edginess and meta-jokes (that are as divisive as they are appealing), this weekend also sees a more traditional release: the romantic comedy ‘Book Club’. Its middling 64% on Rotten Tomatoes shouldn’t deter the older, female audience that it’s primarily intended for, as Hollywood haven’t been fruitful with their options recently. The film, starring Diane Keaton, Jane Fonda, Mary Steenburgen, and Andy Garcia, could well be looking to emulate ‘My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2’, which opened to $17.9m alongside the superhero epic ‘Batman v Superman’ back in March 2016. However, ‘Book Club’ doesn’t have the privilege of being the sequel to the biggest ever romantic comedy of all time, and therefore may only open to around $12m-$13m.
Finally, we have ‘Show Dogs’, which boasts possibly the most ridiculous cast of the year so far, with Ludacris, Will Arnett, Natasha Lyonne, Stanley Tucci, Alan Cumming, RuPaul, and Shaquille O’Neal starring in the child-friendly comedy. The 33% on Rotten Tomatoes and lack of IP ensures this won’t open as large as anthromorpic-darling, ‘Peter Rabbit’ did in February, and instead hopes to emulate Will Arnett’s last feature, ’The Nut Job 2’, with around $8m.
What else is on?
Interestingly, ‘Infinity War’ has performed similarly to another MCU movie, ‘Guardians of the Galaxy 2’. Both had exactly 55.5% drops during their second weekends, and while ‘Infinity War’ dropped 45.9% the next weekend, ‘Guardians’ nearly matched this with 46.9%. Its 4th weekend drop of 40% won’t be matched by ‘Infinity War’ this time around, however, with ‘Deadpool 2’ proving worthy competition. A gross of around $30m is expected, which doesn’t cause too much worry — as we speak, ‘Infinity War’ has taken another scalp in its quest for the $2bn mark, in the form of ‘Jurassic World’s 4th spot on the all-time global list.
We’ve seen comedies like ‘Overboard’ and ‘I Feel Pretty’ exceed expectations, by holding firm against competition and blockbusters, regardless of critical reception. ‘Life of the Party’ looks to continue this trend with a gross of $10m this weekend, just a 40% drop from a week ago. The same can’t be said for ‘Breaking In’, which is performing very similarly to other female-led thrillers that are usually characterised by 50%-ish second weekend drops. From this, an $8m weekend is expected, similar to Halle Berry’s 2013 hit, ‘The Call’.
The introduction of rom-com ‘Book Club’ should, in theory, mean strong competition (and thus a larger fall) for ‘Overboard’, as both seem to cater for a similar market. But, if the last few weeks have taught us anything, its that comedies are not to be messed with. ‘Overboard’ should gross a solid $5.5m in its 3rd weekend, to set it towards reaching $40m domestically next week. Even better news comes from Paramount, as ‘A Quiet Place’ looks to finally overtake ‘Split’s global gross of $278.4m gross soon, with a near-20% drop this weekend. We round off this weekend’s predictions with ‘I Feel Pretty’ and ‘Rampage’ taking 9th and 10th place, with around $2.2m each.
What do you guys think? Will ‘Deadpool 2’ break its own Box Office records, or will it fall at the final hurdle? Let us know on Twitter or Instagram – we’re at @JUMPCUT_ONLINE.
|Rank||Last Week’s Rank||Film||US Gross so far||Budget||Jumpcut’s prediction||Weekend drop||Week no.||BoxOfficeMojo’s prediction||Deadline’s Prediction||Variety’s Prediction|
|2||1||Avengers: Infinity War||$562.9m||$300m+||$29.8m||-52%||4||$29.2m||$32m||$30m|
|4||2||Life of the Party||$22.3m||$30m||$10m||-44%||2||$9.5m||–||–|
|8||5||A Quiet Place||$171.7m||$17m||$5m||-23%||7||$4m||–||–|
|9||6||I Feel Pretty||$45.1m||$32m||$2.2m||-42%||5||–||–||–|