The New Releases
Leading the pack of new releases in the U.S. this weekend is romantic drama ‘Adrift’, based on the true story of a couple stranded in the Pacific Ocean in 1983. The film, starring Shailene Woodley and Sam Claflin, is looking to emulate the latter’s summer 2016 effort ‘Me Before You’, which opened to $18.7m before ending on a respectable $56.2m domestically and a whopping $208.3m worldwide. We’re dampening our estimates this time around as ‘Adrift’ just doesn’t have the luxury of being based on a book or starring a lead from ‘Game of Thrones’ in Emilia Clarke.
What it does have, however, is Golden Globe nominee Woodley in her first film since ‘Divergent: Allegiant’, as well Claflin coming off of a lead role in the JUMPCUT darling ‘Journey’s End’. Fun fact: Sam Claflin’s role was originally meant for Miles Teller, which would’ve marked his 5th collab with Shailene. Trivia aside, we’re using the opening of last September’s ‘The Mountain Between Us’ to predict ‘Adrift’, which not only had the same production budget but similarly saw a stranded Idris Elba and Kate Winslet find love. We’re therefore looking at an opening of around $12.5m, just $1m short of rom-com ‘Book Club’s start 2 weekends ago.
Johnny Knoxville’s ‘Action Point’ opens in a little over 2,000 cinemas, and with not even a Rotten Tomatoes critic score (never a good sign) to provide a general consensus, whose to know what this’ll gross? Knoxville’s last comedy, 2013s ‘Bad Grandpa’, made $32.1m in its first 3 days. No chance ‘Action Point’ will open to similar numbers; it’s in 1,300 less cinemas & has no tie-ins to ‘Jackass’, meaning we’re looking at a much lower gross. Last year’s R-rated ‘Baywatch’, which saw a $5,000 per-cinema average, had the benefit of being based on a popular TV show and starred Box Office gold ‘The Rock’, although ‘Action Point’s RT audience score of 83% gives it a major critical advantage. Taking into this account, a $4,500 cinema average would give the comedy a respectable opening of around $9m.
Finally we have Sci-fi horror ‘Upgrade’ from BH Tilt, production company Blumhouse’s multi-platform subsidiary. This division has a knack for smaller releases, with their biggest release being 2016s ‘The Darkness’ in 1,769 cinemas. ‘Upgrade’, which enters 1,460 theatres this weekend, is by far the most critically acclaimed out of BH Tilt’s films, with a Rotten Tomatoes score of 86% besting BH Tilt’s current leader ‘Sleight’s 74%. It’s difficult to see where ‘Upgrade’ will land, but by using ‘Sleight’s per-cinema average as a rough guide, an opening close to $4m is in play.
What else is on?
‘Solo’s 2nd weekend is looking to be as horrendous as its first, as its daily fluctuations have almost mirrored those of ‘X-Men: Days of Future Past’, which ended up dropping by 64%. Although ‘X-Men’ films are notoriously front-loaded, its likely that a similar drop (~60%) is in store for ‘Solo’, especially when taking into account we’re coming off a holiday weekend. A stronger showing is expected from ‘Deadpool 2’, which looks to bounce back with a gross of around $22m this weekend to take its domestic gross to over $250m and its global cume closer to the $600m mark.
‘Infinity War’ continues to mirror ‘Guardians of the Galaxy 2’s performance last year in terms of their weekend drops, and has the benefit of not having direct competition in ‘Wonder Woman’ taking crucial Box Office gross away from it in its pursuit of a $2bn total. Its gross of $9.4m is closely followed not only by ‘Action Point’, but also by ‘Book Club’ which faces competition from ‘Adrift’ for an audience. A gross close to $7m will be in store for the film, just a 30% drop from last weekend. Melissa McCarthy’s comedy ‘Life of the Party’ will continue to hold strong, with a drop of under 40% from a week ago to close in on a global gross of $60m. ‘Breaking In’ and ‘Show Dogs’ round off the top ten, with $2.5m and $2m respectively.
What do you think? Will ‘Solo’ drop like a stone, and will ‘Action Point’ impress the crowd? Let us know your thoughts on Twitter and Instagram – we’re at @JUMPCUT_ONLINE.
|Rank||Last Week’s Rank||Film||US Gross so far||Budget||Jumpcut’s prediction||Weekend drop||Week no.||BoxOfficeMojo’s prediction||Deadline’s Prediction||Variety’s Prediction|
|1||1||Solo: A Star Wars Story||$115.2m||$300m+||$33m||-61%||2||$30m||$30m-$33m||$50m-$60m|
|4||3||Avengers: Infinity War||$631.1m||$300m||$9.4m||-46%||6||$11.2m||–||–|
|8||5||Life of the Party||$42.3m||$30m||$3.6m||-35%||4||$2.8m||–||–|