Weekend BO Predictions: ‘Oceans 8’ To Steal Top Spot From ‘Solo’, Which May Not Even Finish Second

 

Written by Dapo Olowu

What’s new?

Ocean’s 8’ hit the screens of over 4,000 U.S. cinemas on Friday, 11 years to the day since the last of the original trilogy opened to moviegoers. The gender-swapped crime caper joins a prestigious family of films boasting over $1bn worldwide, and with the average opening weekend gross being $38m, ‘Ocean’s 8’ looks to become the first to open above the $40m mark. Similarly, 2016s ‘Ghostbusters’, which famously swapped out an all-male cast for women, got off to a $46m start, but ultimately failed to get going at the Box Office with just $229.1m from a $144m budget. ‘Ocean’s 8’s more stream-lined $70m production cost means that a similar opening (and gross) would be solid return and has the added benefit of not being plagued with pre and post-release negativity. Regardless it’ll fall just short of the target, with an opening closer to around $41m.

Indie studio A24 release original horror ‘Hereditary’ this weekend, and its 94% on Rotten Tomatoes suggests they’ve yet again struck critical gold. However, it’s when attempting to reach the same heights commercially that A24 seem to falter, with their biggest domestic hit so far being last year’s Oscar-nominated ‘Lady Bird’, with only $49m. ‘Hereditary’ wants to buck the trend, and although it contains a cast not as star-studded as ‘Lady Bird’, it does include rising star Alex Wolff (‘My Friend Dahmer’, ‘Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle’) and Golden Globe winner Toni Collette. Another plus is its release size; ‘Hereditary’ looks to scare in a record number of theatres for A24 with a shade under 3,000, and from this should break A24’s opening weekend gross record of $8.8m, made by ‘The Witch’ in February 2016. Using that horror’s per-cinema average (and then some) gives ‘Hereditary’ a strong 3-day total of $13m, for the third biggest horror opening of the year, behind ‘A Quiet Place’ and ‘Insidious: The Last Key’.

Finally, we have ‘Hotel Artemis’ which, like the other new releases, also boasts an A-List cast, with Jodie Foster, Sterling K. Brown, Sofia Boutella, Jeff Goldblum, and Dave Bautista just some of the names gracing the film. Unlike the other new releases however, ‘Hotel Artemis’ is the only one housing a rotten rating on the Tomatometer (currently 57%), and its these middling reviews that’ll inevitably hurt its Box Office run in the midst of heavy blockbuster and audience competition. It’s a real shame, as ‘Hotel Artemis’ perhaps should’ve opened on a weekend where most of its audience wouldn’t be drawn to watching ‘Hereditary’, and when behemoths ‘The Incredibles 2’ and ‘Jurassic World 2’ wouldn’t open within days of its release. From all of this, it’s clear that ‘Hotel Artemis’, with dreams of opening with numbers similar to ‘John Wick’ and ‘Atomic Blonde’s grosses, will unfortunately flop like ‘Sin City: A Dame to Kill For’, which opened to $6.3m in August 2014. Using a similar per-cinema average gives ‘Hotel Artemis’ an underwhelming start of around $5m.

What else is on?

This weekend sees ‘Solo’ close in on the $300m global mark, with a third domestic weekend total of $13.8m enough for it to drop to only second place. ‘Jurassic World’s recent international release means ‘Solo’ will drop like a stone outside the U.S., meaning its final gross most likely won’t even see $350m. Comparing this with ‘Deadpool 2’ makes for even sorrier reading, as a $12.8m gross this weekend will leave the merc with the mouth just $20m short of reaching that same $300m mark domestically. Currently the 2018s 3rd biggest film both in the U.S. and globally, I wouldn’t bet against ‘Deadpool 2’ doubling ‘Solo’s final gross.

The weekend drops for ‘Infinity War’ have lessened every weekend and this trend is set to continue. We’re predicting a gross of $6.8m, enough for the film to leapfrog ‘Jurassic World’ into 5th spot on the all-time domestic list, with $655m. ‘Adrift’ will follow closely behind, dropping by around 50% for a $6m gross. The hope here is that ‘Ocean’s 8’ doesn’t eat into its audience members, which also goes for the evergreen ‘Book Club’, that will continue its great run by only dropping 35% for a $4.7m total. BH Tilt’s horror ‘Upgrade’ won’t avoid its studio’s front-loaded trend and, coupled with ‘Hereditary’ being a director competitor, will see a pretty big drop to gross $2m, the same amount as our number 10, ‘Life of the Party’.

What do you think? Will ‘Ocean’s 8’ sink or swim this weekend? Will ‘Deadpool 2’ beat ‘Solo’? Let us know your thoughts and opinions – we’re on Twitter and Instagram at @JUMPCUT_ONLINE.

 

Rank Last Week’s Rank Film US Gross so far Budget Jumpcut’s prediction Weekend drop Week no. BoxOfficeMojo’s prediction Deadline’s Prediction Variety’s Prediction
1 Ocean’s 8 $70m $41m 1 $45m $40m $33m-$40m
2 1 Solo: A Star Wars Story $161m $300m+ $13.8m -53% 3 $14.5m $13m $11m-$15m
3 Hereditary $10m $13m 1 $12m $5m-$9m $5m-$9m
4 2 Deadpool 2 $265m $110m $12.8m -45% 4 $13m
5 4 Avengers: Infinity War $647.9m $300m $6.8m -35% 7 $6m
6 3 Adrift $16.7m $35m $6m -48% 2 $7.3m
7 Hotel Artemis $5m 1 $5m $5m-$9m $5m-$9m
8 5 Book Club $52.7m $10m $4.7m -33% 4 $4.6m
9 6 Upgrade $7m $3m-$5m $2m -57% 2 $2.5m
10 7 Life of the Party $48.2m $30m $2m -43% 5 $1.9m

 

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