Weekend BO Predictions: ‘Rampage’ vs. ‘A Quiet Place’ 2: Electric Booglaoo

Written by Dapo Olowu

Three new films are released wide this weekend in the US, led by Amy Schumer’s feel-good comedy, ‘I Feel Pretty’. Not forgetting, it’s also another Box Office title-fight between ‘Rampage’ and ‘A Quiet Place’, mirroring last week’s close encounter. Will The Rock deliver the knockout again, or will ‘A Quiet Place’ finally prevail?

So, what’s opening this weekend?

Opening in 3,000 cinemas is ‘I Feel Pretty’, the PG-13 comedy that cost a pricey $32m and completes the trilogy of Amy Schumer-led films in recent years. After the success of 2015’s ‘Trainwreck’, and the disappointment of 2017’s ‘Snatched’ (both R-rated), it’s safe to say that STXfilms (of ‘Bad Moms’ fame) will be hoping ‘I Feel Pretty’ continues where ‘Trainwreck’ left off, and lands big.

However, it’s a hard one to predict. Its poor 35% on Rotten Tomatoes won’t allow for the greatest word-of-mouth, and Amy Schumer’s waning popularity means that she isn’t as big of a draw as she was 3 years ago (all-in-all, making for a weak opening). But, on the other hand, being rated PG-13 opens it up to a wider audience and we should never underestimate the allure of original comedic content, especially in the aftermath of ‘Game Night’ and ‘Blockers’. Our prediction? The young, female audience that ‘I Feel Pretty’ is aiming for might have already had their fill in the last couple of weeks, and the critics aren’t pulling their punches with this one, so we’re thinking an opening of $13.5m.

What do you get when you make an R-rated sequel to a 2002 cult classic, that made under $20m domestically, and is opening in only 2,000 cinemas? Well, you get Jay Chandrasekhar’s ‘Super Troopers 2’, the police-comedy that’s even harder to predict than ‘I Feel Pretty’. Seriously, we’ve been left scratching our heads at the comparable obscurity; ‘Zoolander 2’ is too popular, ‘Johnny English: Reborn’ isn’t popular enough. The only thing I was left with, was comparing this to 2016’s unfortunate flop ‘Popstar: Never Stop Never Stopping’, which opened to $4.7m in early July. The lack of ST2’s summer release is offset by its cult following, so we’re set on roughly the $5m mark in its release.

Finally, this weekend gives us ‘Traffik’, starring Omar Epps and Paula Patton. By opening in only 1,000 cinemas, its gross is severely limited, especially as it doesn’t even have the luxury of being based on a book, like 2014’s ‘Addicted’ that opened with an impressive $7.5m from just 850 cinemas. With ‘Traffik’, I’m using the per-cinema average of another recent small release thriller that heavily featured African-Americans: ‘Til Death To Us Part’ (2017). From 560 cinemas, it made on average $2,700 in its first week, which will give ‘Traffik’ a very respectable (and possibly optimistic) $2.7m in its opening weekend.

What else is on?

It’s round 2 of ‘A Quiet Place’ vs. ‘Rampage’ for the number one spot again – both have been near-identical in their daily grosses since last weekend. While many expect the child-friendly ‘Rampage’ to have made more money over the weekend, when kids aren’t in school, ‘A Quiet Place’ has held its own very well, even against competition from ‘Truth or Dare’. After all considerations, we’re going with ‘A Quiet Place’ to win this contest in a close affair.

After ‘Truth or Dare’ surprised us last weekend, with a brilliant gross of $18.7m, normal service should resume with the horror looking to run similarly to ‘Happy Death Day’ and ‘Unfriended’, giving it a pretty big second-weekend drop of over 60%. These ‘teenage’ horror movies are usually front-loaded, so don’t be surprised if it struggles to even hit a 2x domestic gross/opening weekend multiplier – ‘Happy Death Day’ (2.14x) and ‘Unfriended’ (2.05x) barely did.

Ready Player One’ continues to haemorrhage cinemas and could even lose another 200-400 this week, leading to a potential 50% drop in grossing. Meanwhile, ‘Black Panther’ continues its majestic run and will remain firmly in the top 10 this week, continuing its trend of small weekend drops. The latter can’t be said for ‘Blockers’, which will face big competition for viewers with the release of ‘I Feel Pretty’, and may see an even larger weekend drop than last week’s 48%.

Finally, Wes Anderson’s ‘Isle of Dogs’ will look to at least remain stable after a poor showing last week. The number of cinemas it showed in rose by 350%, but its weekend grossing only increased by 20%, a poor number whichever way you look at it. We’re thinking it’ll play more like Fantastic Mr. Fox did in 2009, after its wide release, and will have a pretty substantial drop.

Check out our full predictions below. Do you agree or disagree? Let us know on Twitter by @’ing our handle @JUMPCUT_ONLINE.

Rank Last Week’s Rank Film US Gross so far Budget Jumpcut’s prediction Weekend drop Week no. Deadline’s prediction BoxOfficeMojo’s prediction Variety’s prediction
1 2 A Quiet Place $108m $17m $22.4m -32% 3 $20m-$21m $21m $20m-$25m
2 1 Rampage $43.7m $120m $21.1m -41% 2 $20m-$21m $17m $18m-$20m
3 I Feel Pretty $32m $13.5m 1 $15m $13m-$15m $15m
4 3 Truth or Dare $21.7m $3.5m $7.1m -62% 2 $7.5m
5 4 Ready Player One $117.8m $175m $5.8m -50% 4 $7m
6 5 Blockers $40.4m $21m $5.1m -53% 3 $6.5m
7 Super Troopers 2 $4.4m $5m 1 $6m $6m-$7m $6m
8 6 Black Panther $675.9m $200m $3.9m -33% 10 $3.8m
9 Traffik $2.7m 1 $3m-$4m $3.5m $3m-$4m
10 7 Isle of Dogs $20.5m $2.5m -55% 5 $3.6m
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Weekend BO Results: ‘Rampage’ Triumphs In A Tight Race For First Place

Written by Dapo Olowu

There’s something about a mid-April release that really proves Dwayne Johnson’s box office prowess. Exactly a year ago, he was leading the way with $98m, alongside Vin Diesel and others, in ‘Fate of the Furious’ –  a film which had the biggest worldwide opening weekend of all time with $541.9m. Two years before that, he was again topping the charts in the US with ‘Fast 7′. This year, it was a little more reserved, with ‘Rampage ‘ making (as predicted by yours truly) the solid start of $35.8m to claim top spot.

With an A- on Cinemascore, and an 81% audience score on Rotten Tomatoes (although 50% by critics), Warner Bros will be confident in the positive word-of-mouth surrounding the film in upcoming weeks; it’ll need this if it wants to remain in cinemas, and possibly reach the $100m domestic mark. It’s very optimistic, especially as ‘Infinity War’ opens in a week, but a 2.78x domestic total/opening weekend multiple isn’t impossible – just look at another of The Rock’s flicks, ‘San Andreas’.

Coming in at a close second was ‘A Quiet Place’. Its $33m gross (don’t forget, in its second weekend) was just a shade below the opening of another much-heralded horror from last year, ‘Get Out’ ($33.4m). With $100m now in the bank from the US, and $151.7m worldwide, ‘A Quiet Place’ is looking to become a hugely profitable film after just 2 weeks of release, especially with the budget only being between $17m-$21m (depending on where you look). The real question, then, is how much can ‘A Quiet Place’ make? My unofficial prediction, based on how similar it’s performing to 2017’s ‘Split’, is around $170m. Nothing quiet (heh) about that.

Another horror is next, and it’s ‘Truth or Dare’, raking in an impressive $18.7m. The moral of the story here is pretty obvious: never write-off Blumhouse. The 15% on Rotten Tomatoes had us fooled into thinking an opening of around $12m was in play, but the under-25 target audience really ate this up. A different type of horror to ‘A Quiet Place’, this is a good example of 2 same-genre films not necessarily cannibalising each other. But, its B- on Cinemascore may indicate that it won’t stick around to cannibalise anything else either.

‘Ready Player One’ saw a 53.2% drop from last weekend (for an $11.5m weekend), much more substantial than the 41% drop in its first weekend. Although, we can attribute this to ‘Rampage’s opening, as well as Spielberg’s fantasy movie losing nearly 600 cinemas this weekend, so, this isn’t the big news. What’s really interesting here, is how ‘Ready Player One’ has nearly hit $500m worldwide, a massive figure, bolstered by its incredible popularity in China; according to Deadline, it’s now just shy of $200m over there. Wow.

Rounding off the top 5 is ‘Blockers‘, the comedy that’s starting to get a bit crowded amongst the general blockbuster noise. Its $10.8m this weekend isn’t at all bad, but you just get the feeling that more could’ve been made if Universal didn’t release ‘Truth or Dare’, a film targeted at the same young, female audience, only a week after. To make matters worse, Amy Schumer’s comedy ‘I Feel Pretty’ opens next weekend – so, let’s just hope its PG-13 rating means less of an audience overlap, for ‘Blockers’ sake.

‘Black Panther’ drops out of the top 5 for the first time since it came onto our screens 9 weeks ago. It only fell by 33.9%, giving it a current domestic total of $674.2m and a worldwide cume of $1.309bn. We’re hoping that ‘Infinity War’ may give the film the boost it needs, to not only creep past $700m in the US but also past ‘The Last Jedi’s $1.33bn worldwide number, to become the 9th biggest film of all time.

‘Isle of Dogs’ grossed a very disappointing $5.5m this weekend, just a 20% increase from last weekend even though it opened in 1,400 more cinemas. The Christian drama ‘I Can Only Imagine’ finally saw a major drop of near 50% after losing over 300 cinemas, but with $75m in the bank, it’s been a more than satisfying run. Tyler Perry’s ‘Acrimony’s $3.7m weekend gives it a total of $37.8m, and will probably end up just short of his 2017 effort, ‘Boo 2! A Madea Halloween’, which raked in a $47.3m domestic total. Finally, period-drama ‘Chappaquidick’, originally meant for a late 2017 ‘for the awards’ release, came in at number 10, with $3.1m in its second weekend.

The top 10 box office report for the weekend is below. Next weekend sees ‘I Feel Pretty’ starring Amy Schumer, ‘Super Troopers 2′ (the sequel to the 2001 cult classic), and ‘Traffik’ starring Paula Patton and Omar Epps, all opening in the US. What do you think will challenge ‘Rampage‘ for the top spot?

Rank Last Week Rank Film Weekend Gross Total Gross Weekend drop Jumpcut’s prediction Difference Week number
1 Rampage $35.8m $35.8m $36m $0.2m 1
2 1 A Quiet Place $33.0m $100m -34.3% $32.2m $0.8m 2
3 Truth or Dare $18.7m $18.7m $12.5m $6.2m 1
4 2 Ready Player One $11.5m $114.9m -53.2% $13.5m $2m 3
5 3 Blockers $10.8m $37.4m -47.6% $10.8m $0 2
6 4 Black Panther $5.8m $674.2m -33.6% $6.1m $0.3m 9
7 10 Isle of Dogs $5.5m $18.9m +20% $10m $4.5m 4
8 6 I Can Only Imagine $4.1m $75.3m -46.9% $5.7m $1.6m 5
9 5 Tyler Perry’s Acrimony $3.7m $37.8m -56.4% $3.8m $0.1m 3
10 7 Chappaquiddick $3.1m $11m -46.9% 2

Weekend BO Predictions: ‘Rampage’ Aims For The Numer One Spot

Written by Dapo Olowu

The top ten films in the US box office will have four new wide releases to contend with this weekend, including The Rock’s new action movie ‘Rampage’. After ‘A Quiet Place’s ‘ huge $50m opening last week, will it manage to keep the top spot for a second weekend in a row, or will Dwayne Johnson’s monkey madness run riot?

So, what’s opening this weekend?

After ‘Jumanji’ was officially confirmed as Sony’s biggest ever domestic hit (beating Raimi’s Spider-Man’s total of $403.71m with $403.74m and counting), Dwayne Johnson: the man, the legend, The Rock crashes into 4,000 cinemas with the $120m, ‘Rampage’. The loose adaptation of the video game of the same name also stars Jeffrey Dean Morgan and Jake Lacy, as well as Oscar-nominee, Naomie Harris.

When it comes to giant monkeys, ‘Kong: Skull Island’ immediately springs to mind as the type of movie to base ‘Rampage’ predictions around. Kong’s $61m opening, however, is way beyond what The Rock’s newest film is looking to make – so, we’re predicting a much meeker Friday-to-Sunday start for the Gorilla-flick with around $36m, similar to 2016’s ‘Tarzan’. This should be enough for number one though, unless ‘A Quiet Place’ springs in with a loud (heh) surprise. Star power is the name of the game here, so with DJ arguably being the most bankable actor in the world at the moment, we expect to see much bigger numbers overseas.

Next on the list of newbies is Blumhouse’s (‘Get Out’, ‘Insidious, Split’) horror film, ‘Truth or Dare’. With 18% on Rotten Tomatoes, ‘Truth or Dare’ comes out just a week after ‘A Quiet Place’, which’ll most probably hurt the former over the latter. Though, a nice little selling point for them is the cast; with young talent like ‘Pretty Little Liars’ Lucy Hale, and ‘Teen Wolf’s’ Tyler Posey, Truth or Dare will look to draw in the under-25 crowd this weekend and, honestly, we reckon it’ll play similar to 2017’s ‘The Bye Bye Man’ with around $12.5m. It was only made for $3.5M anyway, so with its cliff-side drop-off next week, it’ll at least break-even.

Although not technically a new release, ‘Isle of Dogs’ opens wide (anything over 600 cinemas) at 1,939 movie theatres, and looks to cement a place in the top 5. Will it? Not too sure, it’s a difficult one to predict. This’ll probably make around $10m this weekend but, it could go in any direction, so don’t quote us on that.

‘Sgt. Stubby: An American Hero’, the animated adventure film based on the WW1 hero-dog (nope, never heard of him either) rounds up this weekend’s new releases. Fun fact: this is the first time we’ve had 2 wide-release dog-centric movies in 12 years, since ‘Doogal’ opened a week after ‘Eight Below’ in February 2006. But, since it’s only opening in around 1,700 cinemas, we’re looking at 2016’s ‘Ratchet & Clank’ and 2017’s ‘Rock Dog’ for guidance, so, an opening of around $4m is likely.

What else is on?

‘A Quiet Place’ looks to dampen ‘Rampage’s’ #1 ambitions in its second week of showings. John Krasinski’s lauded horror should be immune to ‘Truth or Dare’ this weekend, so don’t be surprised if this continues to mirror the run of 2017’s ‘Split’ – whose 35.9% second-weekend drop would give ‘A Quiet Place’ a second-weekend total of $32.2m, more than enough for a number 2 spot.

‘Ready Player One’s biggest competition is ‘Rampage’, with both films combining sci-fi & adventure genres unlike typical horror, ‘Truth or Dare’. From this, we’re looking at a third weekend drop a little higher than last week’s 41%, for a total of $13.5m, just beating ‘Truth or Dare’ for third.

R-rated comedy, ‘Blockers’, is much safer in this aspect, so I’m looking at a second weekend total of $10.8m (a 48% drop). Our full predictions for the top ten films in the Box Office this weekend is below – we don’t check the estimates of experts before we do ours, so let’s hope it’s us that wins this round.

Rank Last Week Rank Film Budget Jumpcut prediction Weekend drop Week no. Deadline prediction BoxOfficeMojo prediction Variety prediction
1 Rampage $120m $36m 1 $35m-$40m $34m $37m-$40m
2 1 A Quiet Place $17m $32.2m -35.9% 2 $32.5m-$35m $30m-$32.5m $28m-$30m
3 2 Ready Player One $175m $13.5m -45% 3 $14m $12m-$15m
4 Truth or Dare $3.5m $12.5m 1 $14m-$16m $15m-$17m $16m
5 3 Blockers $21m $10.8m -47.6% 2 $12m-$14m $12m $12m-$15m
6 10 Isle of Dogs $10m +119.2% 4 $5m
7 4 Black Panther $200m $6.1m -30% 9 $6m
8 6 I Can Only Imagine $7m $5.7m -27% 5 $5.1m
9 Sgt. Stubby $25m $4.2m 1 $2m $1m-$3m <$5m
10 5 Tyler Perry’s Acrimony $20m $3.8m -55% 3 $3.6m