Weekend BO Predictions: ‘Crazy Rich Asians’ To Splash The Cash With An Opening Above $20m

Written by Dapo Olowu

As the summer comes to an end and the blockbusters become few and far between, herein lies the opportunity for a breakout film to end the season strongly, compared to this time year, when ‘The Hitman’s Bodyguard’ spent the last 3 weekends of August atop the charts with a combined gross of just $42.3m.

This year feels different, however, as ‘Crazy Rich Asians’, ‘Mile 22’, and ‘Alpha’ all aim to land big in the U.S. this weekend. It’ll be a 3 days to remember for Warner Bros especially, as their surprise hit ‘The Meg’ looks to bring in around $22m this weekend, just ahead of the $30m-budgeted ‘Crazy Rich Asians’, to give the studio a 1-2 finish.

The latter film, based on a novel and directed by Jon M. Chu (Now You See Me 2, G.I. Joe: Retaliation) looked to cash in early, opening on Wednesday to a solid $5m. It marks a great first day for the romantic-comedy that becomes the first Hollywood film since 1993 (Disney’s ‘The Joy Luck Club’) to star an almost-entirely Asian cast, a feat that will (hopefully) continue a trend of greater diversity on our screens.

The film stars Constance Wu as Rachel Chu, who discovers on a trip to Singapore that her boyfriend, Nick Young, is part of a one of the country’s richest families. We also see Ken Jeong, Gemma Chan, and ‘Ocean’s 8’ star Awkwafina. The ‘fish out of water’ story is one that’s well-known in the comedy circles, but it hasn’t stopped the film from a 92% on Rotten Tomatoes and an A on Cinemascore.

Ticketing site Fandango have apparently reported the film’s pre-sales to be above that of ‘Girls Trip’ at the same time of release, although the early release may throw a spanner in the works. The aforementioned film opened to a magnificent $31.2m last summer, on its way to earning $115.2m domestically. Although such an opening is likely for ‘Crazy Rich Asians’ first five days, we’re predicting a modest $21.6m for its Friday-Monday.

Trailing in its wake is the fourth Mark Wahlberg-Peter Berg collab, ‘Mile 22’. Coming after biopics such as ‘Lone Survivor’, Deepwater Horizon’, and ‘Patriots Day’ (which opened to an ever-decreasing $37.8m, $20.2m, and $11.6m alike), ‘Mile 22’ marks the first time the duo have made a film not made a film based on real life, with Wahlberg reportedly saying that they ‘wanted to do something less intense’. With each previous film being positively rated on the Tomatometer, all carry some goodwill into this latest action-thriller, that cost around $35m to produce.

The goodwill can only carry them so far, however, as ‘Mile 22’ carries a rotten 21% on the Tomatometer. The film stars Mark Wahlberg and John Malkovich as CIA operatives, and are joined by Ronda Roussey, Lauren Cohan, and ‘The Raid’s Iko Uwais. Although ‘Mile 22’s audience will differ massively from ‘Crazy Rich Asians’, its opening will still be on the lower side of the Wahl-Berg (ha) group, with around $14m. This’ll be enough to become STX Entertainment’s third biggest opening of the year, below ‘I Feel Pretty’s $16m and ‘Den of Thieves$15.2m, so at least there’s decent news for some.

Paramount’s ‘Mission: Impossible – Fallout’ should earn just under $12m to close in on the $200m domestic total, a mark only 2 ‘M:I’ films (‘M:I2’ and ‘Ghost Protocol’) have ever reached. Following this is ‘Christopher Robin’ which, like Disney’s ‘Pete’s Dragon’ 2 years ago, should see a drop in the mid-30s to gross $8.4m. The final new release of the week is Albert Hughes’ ‘Alpha’, starring Kodi Smit-McPhee. The pre-historic adventure film has a good 80% on the Tomatometer, and looks to make an (albeit small) impression from around 2,700 cinemas. The film shares similarities with 2008s ’10,000 B.C.’, but its $35m+ opening offers no help, so we’re looking at this year’s ‘Early Man’ as comparison. A $7m-ish gross looks likely for the Sony Pictures film, which has suffered from animal abuse investigations, and multiple release delays.

Spike Lee’s ‘BlacKkKlansman’ looks to continue its solid start with a $6.7m gross, while ‘Slender Man’ is expected to fall by the wayside, with just over $4m to be made. ‘Mamma Mia 2’ and ‘The Spy Who Dumped Me’ round off the weekend’s top ten, with close to $4m from both.

In a tight weekend, who will prevail as the victor? Will ‘The Meg’ hold out, or will ‘Crazy Rich Asians’ take first place? Let us know your thoughts on Twitter and Instagram – we’re at @JUMPCUT_ONLINE.

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Weekend BO Report: ‘The Meg’ Lands With A Splash To Finish First

Written by Dapo Olowu

It was a mega weekend for some in the U.S. Box Office, as Jason Statham-led shark horror, ‘The Meg’, blew all prior estimates and predictions out the water, delivering a meaty $45.4m from its first 3 days. With most industry trackers forecasting an opening in the low-20s, it ended up being a timely reminder of just the sheer popularity of sharks among cinemagoers; Sony’s ‘The Shallows’ made a whopping $119.1m worldwide in 2016, and last year’s ’47 Meters Down’ impressed with a $61.7m global total, off just a $5.5m budget.

The Meg’ is now Warner Bros. biggest domestic opening of the year, beating out the $41.8m earned by Spielberg’s ‘Ready Player One’ in March – which had the added benefit of being based of a book that wasn’t 21 years old. Add in the fact that the film also earned roughly $101.5m from 42 countries for a global opening of $146.9m, and it’s a truly staggering start for the joint-Chinese production.

The film, that marks Jason Statham’s biggest non-franchise (‘The Fast and Furious’ films) opening, now aims to keep up its run in the coming weeks. An opening weekend multiplier like ‘Rampage’s of 2.78x has ‘The Meg’ finishing in the region of $126m, truly a remarkable total.

The Meg’s over-performance meant that last weekend’s leading movie, ‘Mission: Impossible – Fallout’, was hit harder than expected, dropping by 45% to earn $19.4m – tracking $3m above the franchise’s biggest domestic hit, ‘Mission: Impossible 2’, at the same stage of its run, with $161.3m. Although it doesn’t open in China until the end of the month, ‘Fallout’s already on $436.9m worldwide, with more than enough in the tank to near ‘Rogue Nation’s $682.7m total.

Next is ‘Disney’s Christopher Robin’, which brought in a disappointing $13m, a 47% fall from its opening last weekend. This was a shade above ‘Slender Man’s impressive $11.3m, even in the wake of its D- on Cinemascore (the 2nd-lowest grade to get). It’s a solid opening from a $10m budget, but it’s expected to fall off a cliff in coming weeks with such a poor critical reception, alongside the lingering effects of the tragic events in 2014 (where two friends stabbed a 12-year-old girl in an attempt to impress the eponymous title character) that continues to provide negative PR.

Still, it marginally beat Spike Lee’s ‘BlacKkKlansman’, that saw $10.8m grossed by an audience made up of mainly over-25s (77%) and males (56%). From just 1,500 cinemas, the film was Lee’s biggest opening in 12 years, since 2006s ‘Inside Man’ made $29m. The A- on Cinemascore should see the crime drama leg out for the rest of August. The same can’t be said for ‘The Spy Who Loved Me’, starring Mila Kunis and Kate McKinnon, which earned just $6.5m in its second weekend for a domestic total of $24.4m thus far. Its inflated $40m budget means this is a guaranteed flop, along with other comedy misfires of the year, ‘Life of the Party’ and ‘I Feel Pretty’.

Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again’ saw the smallest drop of the weekend, with 35%, to earn $5.9m. Its domestic total now stands at an impressive $103.9m, and its global gross at $282m. This was closely followed by ‘The Equalizer 2’ with $5.4m, ‘Hotel Transylvania 3’ with $5.2m, and finally ‘Ant-Man and The Wasp’ with $4.1m.

With ‘The Meg’ surprising everybody this weekend in the Box Office, has this been the biggest shock of the summer so far? Let us know your thoughts on Instagram and Twitter – we’re at @JUMPCUT_ONLINE.

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Weekend BO Predictions: ‘The Meg’ Swims To First Place Ahead Of ‘M:I Fallout’

Written by Dapo Olowu

Giant sharks, supernatural creepypasta, and the Ku Klux Klan. It’s a weird and wonderful weekend of film for U.S. audiences, and the Box Office shouldn’t disappoint either, as four wide releases look to enter the top ten biggest grossers. The hunt will be led by ‘The Meg’, the sci-fi-horror, action, adventure, thriller(?) about the endeavors to stop a Megalodon shark from causing chaos on a beach. The film stars Jason Statham, Li Bingbing, Rainn Wilson, and Ruby Rose.

The joint-Chinese production was originally meant to be Disney’s, who bought the rights to the 1997 book ‘Meg: A Novel of Deep Terror’, but by 2015 it was owned by Warner Bros, who will benefit from a higher financial return from its Chinese gross.

This is especially welcomed news; the film should make a huge splash with international audiences, and like monster film ‘Rampage’ from April, its middling reviews (48% on the Tomatometer) won’t give it much bite in the U.S. Unlike ‘Rampage’, it doesn’t have the star power of Dwayne ‘The Rock’ Johnson, and with more competition, it won’t emulate ‘Rampage’s $35.8m either, but will likely open at around $25m.

Still, this’ll be enough to top the charts and swim above ‘Mission: Impossible – Fallout’, which continues to hold impressively as the days go by. In its third weekend, the Tom Cruise-fronted spy-thriller looks to earn just under $24m, and aims to reach close to $170m by day 17 of its release – around $15m more than its nearest franchise competitor, ‘Mission: Impossible II’.

Disney’s Christopher Robin’ is next, and it should benefit from having limited Box Office competition, to gross close to $15m. Trailing in its wake is horror, ‘Slenderman’, based on a near-decade old meme about the ‘Slender Man’, a supernatural being characterized by incredibly long, slim limbs, and lack of facial features.

Why Sony Pictures are releasing the film now is a mystery; like last week’s ‘The Darkest Minds’, its popularity peaked years ago, and there’s a sense of missed opportunity with this late entrance. A 13% on Rotten Tomatoes could mean the writing’s already on the wall, but as with a lot of youth-aimed recent horrors, poor ratings doesn’t always equal a poor Box Office showing.

Lead actress Joey King’s (‘The Kissing Booth’) last horror, ‘Wish Upon’, opened in a similar number of cinemas with $5.5m and a similar gross could be in store, but we’re placing our bets on it making something like 2017s ‘The Bye Bye Man’s $13.5m, with a $10m opening.

Now here’s a tricky one: Spike Lee’s first wide release ‘joint’ in 10 years, ‘BlacKkKlansman’. Opening in just 1,500 cinemas but with 98% on the Tomatometer, it’s one of the best reviewed films of the year, but it’s tiny theatre account offsets a potential breakout opening. Its unflinching subject matter – a black policeman infiltrating the KKK – is both controversial and appealing, and we just can’t tell what this’ll do.

The film stars John David Washington as the aforementioned detective Ron Stallworth, as well as Topher Grace, Adam Driver, and ‘Spider-Man: Homecoming’s Laura Harrier. Per-cinema-averages on other biographical crime dramas, like ‘Black Mass’ ($7,100) and ‘Molly’s Game’ ($4,264), leave the film earning anywhere between $6.4m and $10.7m. An average gives us around $8.5m, but the hype train could push this to potentially over $10m, so who knows?

In its second weekend, ‘The Spy Who Dumped Me’ will earn roughly $6m, just above ‘Mamma Mia! Here We Go Again’ with $5.7m, and ‘Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation’ with $5.5m. Antoine Fuqua’s ‘The Equalizer 2’ should hit the $90m domestic total, with a $5m take.

Coming in at number 10 is ‘Dog Days’, the romantic family comedy directed by Ken Marino. It includes a pretty packed cast, with Eva Longoria, Nina Dobrev, Vanessa Hudgens, and Finn Wolfhard starring in the film that was released on Wednesday. Its Wednesday gross of $635k drastically reduced my original 3-day weekend estimates, as this should just manage to scrape in over ‘Ant-Man and The Wasp’ with $4.5m.

In a tight weekend across the chart, will we see ‘The Meg’ top the list, or will it be a weekend hattrick at number one for ‘Mission: Impossible – Fallout’? Let us know your thoughts, we’re on Instagram and Twitter at @JUMPCUT_ONLINE.

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First Trailer For Spike Lee’s ‘BlacKkKlansman’ Has Arrived!

“From visionary filmmaker Spike Lee comes the incredible true story of an American hero. It’s the early 1970s, and Ron Stallworth (John David Washington) is the first African-American detective to serve in the Colorado Springs Police Department. Determined to make a name for himself, Stallworth bravely sets out on a dangerous mission: infiltrate and expose the Ku Klux Klan. The young detective soon recruits a more seasoned colleague, Flip Zimmerman (Adam Driver), into the undercover investigation of a lifetime. Together, they team up to take down the extremist hate group as the organization aims to sanitize its violent rhetoric to appeal to the mainstream. Produced by the team behind the Academy-Award® winning Get Out.”

Directed By: Spike Jones

Cast: John David Washington, Adam Driver, Topher Grace, Laura Harrier

Release Date: August 24th, 2018