Weekend BO Predictions: On A Potentially Record-Breaking Weekend, Will ‘Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom’ Open With A Roar?

Written by Dapo Olowu

It’s sequel season in the Box Office sphere, with ‘Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom’ following in the footsteps of ‘Ocean’s 8’ and record-breaking ‘Incredibles 2’ in its attempt to top the charts this weekend, in a live-action record 4,475 cinemas. The follow-up to Colin Trevorrow’s 2015 continuation of the ‘Jurassic Park’ franchise (which surprisingly broke the then-opening weekend record with $208.8m) looks to follow in the footsteps of last week’s ‘Incredibles 2’ and provide mass appeal. The problem is, Pixar sequel completely smashed expectations and performed brilliantly across the four main audience quadrants, providing men, women, alongside over and under-25s alike worth quality viewing. This then led to an animated record-breaking $187.2m opening for the film, practically ensuring it’s future Box Office profits. ‘Jurassic World 2’, on the other hand, has a 53% rotten rating on the Tomatometer, and is the sequel not many Americans seemingly asked for, much like ‘Solo’ some weeks ago.

Fears of this being another ‘Solo’ are quite extreme however; ‘Jurassic World 2’ has already made $450m in International markets without the film even reaching U.S. cinemas, and crossed over the $100m mark in China in its first 3 days. It aims to see a drop akin to ‘The Last Jedi’, which fell 13% from ‘The Force Awakens’ for a $220m opening. The same for ‘Jurassic World 2’ would give it a massive $181.7m domestic start, but without such a dedicated fanbase as ‘Star Wars’, even the most optimistic of analysts would roll their eyes at such a prediction. Therefore, I’m looking at ‘Rogue One’, which dropped by 37% from ‘The Force Awakens’. A similar fall from ‘Jurassic World’ would leave its sequel opening to $131m, and taking into account ‘Incredibles 2’s performance, we’re thinking ‘Jurassic World 2’ will hit $125m in its first 3 days. Fun fact: this is to be only the second time ever that a $100m opener has immediately followed another $100m opener in the next week, after ‘Pirates of the Caribbean 3’ followed ‘Shrek 3’ in 2007.

Looking to take advantage of ‘Jurassic World’s disappointing opening is ‘Incredibles 2’, which aims to make history by being the first film to ever make $100m or more in the same weekend as another. No two films have ever simultaneously achieved the feat on the same weekend; the closest this ever came was in 2015, when in a curious case of reverse fortune, Disney favourite ‘Inside Out’ opened to $90.4m during ‘Jurassic World’s second weekend (where it itself grossed $106.6m). ‘Incredibles 2’ would have to drop by 45.3% to reach $100m, and that’s where we’re hoping it reaches.

Next, is ‘Ocean’s 8’, and this continues to emulate ‘Ghostbusters’ with around a $10m 3rd weekend. Comedy ‘Tag’ would love to mirror ‘Game Night’s second weekend performance with a 38.8% drop, but will probably perform closer to ‘Neighbors 2’ and fall somewhere in the 50% region. A gross of $7.5m will be enough for fourth place, ahead of ‘Solo’, who will finally pass the $200m domestic total this weekend, for a gross of $6m, in-line with the performance of ‘Days of Future Past’. Closely trailing is ‘Deadpool 2’ with $5.6m, now reaching $700m worldwide and $300m domestically.

A24 horror ‘Hereditary’ continues its impressive run, and looks to earn $4.3m in the U.S. this weekend, leaving the film just $19m away from being A24’s biggest domestic hit, and close to making $50m globally. ‘Infinity War’ should come 8th with a gross of $3.8m, and finally ‘Superfly’ and ‘Adrift’ round off the top ten with $3.2m and $1.1m each.

Will ‘Jurassic World 2’ and ‘Incredibles 2’ make Box Office history, or will the latter fall just short of the $100m target? Let us know your thoughts on Instagram and Twitter – we’re at @JUMPCUT_ONLINE.

 

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Weekend BO Results: ‘Infinity War’ Conquers The Box Office As Opening Records Are Destroyed

Written by Dapo Olowu

Just weeks after ‘Black Panther’ broke domestic and worldwide Box Office records, ‘Avengers: Infinity War’ flexes its own financial muscles to absolutely annihilate the opening weekend record gross in the United States, and demolish any fears of a superhero fatigue.

A 3-day haul of $257.7m smashes ‘The Force Awakens’ record by $10m and has set the film up to be one of the biggest of all time. Not only has ‘Infinity War’ reclaimed the opening weekend record for the MCU (‘The Avengersheld it from 2012 to 2015 with $207.4m), but it also maintains Disney’s recent Box Office dominance; as 9 out of the 10 biggest domestic openings of all time are currently all Disney movies.

With a worldwide opening weekend of $640.5m, ‘Infinity War’ cruised to the title of biggest worldwide opening of all time, around $100m over the $541.9m ‘Fate of the Furious’ made last year. All this, mind you, without ‘Iinfinity War’ opening in China (the 2nd-biggest market in the world) and Russia. While ‘F8′ can still boast about having the biggest non-US opening ($443.2m vs. IW’s $382.8m), ‘Infinity War’ will now be looking at the bigger picture: hitting the billions.

As expected, ‘A Quiet Place’ came in at number 2 with a very respectable gross of $11m – a drop of just 47%, a fantastic number considering the circumstances. What this also means, is that this was the biggest difference ever between the top 2 films in the Box Office during one weekend, at $246.7m. As the records keep trickling in, ‘A Quiet Place’ will surely be pleased that it’s now bigger than horror-hit ‘Split’ in the U.S. ($148.5m vs. $138.3m), and is now just $30m away from ‘Get Out’s domestic (and $20m from its worldwide) gross.

Next on the list was Amy Schumer’s ‘I Feel Pretty’, and similarly to ‘A Quiet Place’, this suffered an impressive drop of under 50%, a welcome surprise for the comedy that’s now just $2m short of matching its budget in the Box Office. It should be looking to make another $15-20m before it’s run is done, a nice little return on a frankly bloated production cost.

The first major calamity at the hands of ‘Infinity War’ was of course ‘Rampage’, the action-adventure flick that not even Dwayne ‘The Rock’ Johnson could save this weekend. A 64% drop was always coming, making hopes of a $100m domestic return a distant dream, as well as the potential for $400m worldwide to break-even. Regardless, having $335m in the bank is a testament to a) The Rock’s pulling power, and b) the public’s willingness to watch giant monkeys causing havoc in urban cities.

Now we come to ‘Black Panther’, which I (rightly) predicted would see a boost from IW, but also (wrongly) predicted would actually increase from last weekend’s gross. It brought in a mighty $4.7m (in its 11th weekend!), only dropping 4%, which is a fantastic achievement. Although, I can’t be sure if Disney did embrace the ‘Disney double’ and offered discounts, but I’m sure many cinema-goers took it upon themselves to watch T’Challa and the rest before seeing ‘Infinity War’. Now officially bigger than ‘The Last Jedi’, ‘Black Panther’ will surely aim to beat ‘Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Pt.2’ for no. 7 on the all-time charts.

Much like last week, ‘Super Troopers 2’ surprised us all, but this time with the biggest weekend drop of the top 10, falling 75% and posting just $3.7m. The front-loaded comedy dropped like a stone this week, a bigger fall than ‘Truth or Dare’, that stayed consistent during its 3rd weekend with another 58% drop. It looks like ‘Truth or Dare’ will make another $5m max to reach a $40m domestic total, a likely profit from just a $3.5m budget.

Blockers’ posted its biggest drop yet, with just under 57%, making $3m in a weekend that is proving fruitful for comedies. The less audience crossover the better, it seems, as ‘Ready Player One’ suffered a heavy 65% loss in gross compared to last weekend. With $130.8m from the U.S. and $545m worldwide, ‘Ready Player One’ will be jumping for joy at the fact it opened a full month before ‘Infinity War’, meaning it made its money (and then some) before any meaningful competition came into play. Finally, it was ‘Traffik’, not ‘Isle of Dogs’ that snatched 10th place with $1.6m (just $200k over 11th).

Next week we’re back at the races with 3 new wide releases: ‘Bad Samaritan’, ‘Overboard’, and ‘Tully’. Who’ll fall out of the top 10, who’ll remain, and how much will ‘Infinity War’ make in its 2nd weekend? Let us know your thoughts, we’re on Twitter at @JUMPCUT_ONLINE.

Rank Last Week Rank Film Weekend Gross Total U.S. Gross Weekend drop Jumpcut’s prediction Difference Week number
1 Avengers: Infinity War $257.7m $257.7m $240m $17.7m 1
2 1 A Quiet Place $11m $148.5m -47.4% $11.7m $0.7m 4
3 3 I Feel Pretty $8.2m $29.6m -49% $7.5m $0.7m 2
4 4 Rampage $7.2m $78m -64.1% $8.2m $1m 3
5 8 Black Panther $4.7m $688.4m -4% $5.6m $0.9m 11
6 4 Super Troopers 2 $3.7m $22.2m -75.4% $5.7m $2m 2
7 5 Truth or Dare $3.3m $35.4m -58.1% $3.2m $0.1m 3
8 7 Blockers $3m $53.2m -56.5% $3.4m $0.4m 4
9 6 Ready Player One $2.6m $130.8m -65.4% $3.2m $0.6m 5
10 9 Traffik $1.7m $6.8m -58% 2