‘Aquaman’ And Co. To Feast On Big Christmas Leftovers, Leaving ‘Vice’ And ‘Holmes & Watson’ With Crumbs: Box Office Predictions

Written by Dapo Olowu

The post-Christmas Box Office weekend is usually a lucrative one, creating entire meals out of the festive midweek scraps. This time last year saw films out of the top 10 actually increase their weekend earnings after the previous one, including ‘Jumanji’, ‘The Greatest Showman’, and ‘Ferdinand’.

It’s no different this year, as many of last weekend’s inclusions look to beat their efforts of seven days ago. Competition comes in the form of debutants ‘Vice’ and ‘Holmes and Watson’, which both opened on Christmas Day.

The latter is studio Annapurna’s latest offering, a biographical comedy/drama starring Christian Bale as American politician, businessman, and former Vice pPresident of the United States, Dick Cheney. It’s McKay’s second venture into the niche genre, as well as his second partnership with Christian Bale – both films being 2015s ‘The Big Short’.

It’s ‘The Big Short’ that we’ll be using as a basis for our predictions. Both came out in the Christmas period, and although ‘The Big Short’ had a platform release (i.e. limited to wide opening), it didn’t stop a solid $2.3m on its opening Wednesday in 1,585 screens, on its way to a $10.5m weekend.

Signs point to ‘Vice’ at least doubling this opening, considering it made $4.8m on Tuesday, and enters cinemas wide immediately. It’ll definitely need to, at least for Annapurna’s sake; the studio sank a whopping $60m into this political drama before marketing costs too.

However, considering the difference in critical reception (‘The Big Short’s 88% on RT vs. ‘Vice’s 65%) and audience feedback (A- vs. C+ on Cinemascore), we’re not hedging our bets on ‘Vice’ beating ‘The Big Short’ by much this weekend, with an $11m gross being likely.

Will Ferrell and John C. Reilly lead together for the 3rd time in this weekend’s other new release, ‘Holmes and Watson’, but unlike ‘Step Brothers’ and ‘Talladega Nights’, Sony’s latest comedy is one of the most critically-reviled movies of in recent memory, pulling in a dreadful 6% on Rotten Tomatoes, and a D+ on Cinemascore.

The film sees Ferrell and Reilly play Sherlock Holmes and Dr. John Watson, the detective duo created by the late Sir Arthur Conan Doyle. They’re joined by Rebecca Hall, Ralph Fiennes, Rob Brydon, and Pam Ferris, and at $42m, it’s one of the more expensive comedies of the year.

This only makes things worse for those at Sony, who are now pinning hopes on a big opening weekend to offset the inevitable poor word of mouth, and thus short Box Office run, to follow. It made a strong $6.4m on Christmas day, but won’t be able to solve the mystery of how to break-even however, as it looks to earn a disappointing $9m from Friday to Sunday.

Last weekend’s winner ‘Aquaman’ comes into the weekend fresh from a massive Christmas feast, as it earned $22.1m on Tuesday for the 6th biggest X-Mas day grosser ever, behind ‘The Force Awakens’, ‘The Last Jedi’, ‘Rogue One’, ‘Sherlock Holmes’, and ‘Avatar’. Jason Momoa and co stand tall at a domestic total of $122.6m currently and $600m worldwide, and should add another $55m this weekend for good measure.

Finally, ‘Mary Poppins Returns’ and ‘Bumblebee’ continue to battle for the 2nd and 3rd spots, and will earn an estimated $29m and $24m each in their pursuits of Box Office runs to match last year’s musical ‘The Greatest Showman’, and adventure-comedy ‘Jumanji’.

‘Aquaman’ looks to reign supreme again, while ‘Bumblebee’ and ‘Mary Poppins Returns’ remain untroubled by the new entrants of the week. Can ‘Aquaman’ be the first of the DCEU to hit the $1bn mark? Let us know your thoughts on Twitter and Instagram – we’re at @JUMPCUT_ONLINE.

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‘Aquaman’ Is King With $67m As Christmas Delivers A Mixed Bag Of Presents: Box Office Report

Written by Dapo Olowu

Father Christmas was in a giving mood in the penultimate Box Office weekend of the year, gifting our seven new releases a combined gross of $125.7m between Friday and Sunday.

Half went to ‘Aquaman’, the film which sees Warner Bros swim further into the shores of the DCEU. Its first 3 days earned them $67.4m – by far the lowest in the franchise so far, but simultaneously the 9th biggest December opening of all time.

It’s a start both unspectacular but impressive; while ‘Aquaman’ may have been expected to open bigger without the looming figure of a ‘Star Wars’ movie in December (it’s the first time since 2014 that we haven’t had one at Christmas), the DCEU suffered a near-fatal blow last year with critical and commercial flop ‘Justice League’. Audiences, it seems, were being cautious.

Those who took the risk liked what they saw from the James Wan blockbuster. It’s A- on Cinemascore is only bettered by ‘Wonder Woman’ in the DCEU, whose 4x opening weekend multiplier (achievable over the winter break) would land ‘Aquaman’ with a commanding $270m domestic total. Coupled with an ever-impressive overseas total – which is currently on $410.7m after a $91.3m weekend – and its okay start this weekend will be long forgotten in the next few weeks.

It was a closer-than-expected affair between Disney’s ‘Mary Poppins Returns’ ($23.5m) and Paramount’s ‘Bumblebee’ ($21.6m), as both remained rooted in ‘Aquaman’s shadow. Both studios will be a little disappointed by the performances thus far, as heavy competition from ‘Aquaman’, and a slew of family-friendly releases (‘The Nutcracker’, for one) caused either one or the other to deliver under forecasts.

All isn’t lost, however. Nothing stops both films from really breaking out in the upcoming weeks and months and having special Box Office performances to wipe away any doubts, especially as both benefit from an A- on Cinemascore – a mark of strong praise.

Last Christmas saw ‘Jumanji’ open to just $36.2m, only to end on a whopping $404.5m, and ‘The Greatest Showman’ start at a poor $8.8m on its way to earning $174.3m. Even ‘Pitch Perfect 3’ opened to $19.9m, only to finish on $104.9m, meaning the festive period and beyond provides perfect fodder for highly-rated movies with low-ish openings.  Only ‘Vice’ and ‘Holmes and Watson’ provide any real competition until ‘Glass’ on January 18th, so both films can look to stretch their legs in the coming weeks.

Internationally, ‘Bumblebee’ will be pleased to have earned $31.1m from 38 markets (not including China) for a $52.7m opening, while ‘Mary Poppins Returns’ made $20.3m from 17 countries, including $9.4m from the U.K.

The less said about both ‘Second Act’ and ‘Welcome to Marwen’ the better. The former, fronted by Jennifer Lopez and produced by STX, floundered at the Box Office, earning $6.5m off of a $16m budget. Perhaps a case of a poor release date, the film will now struggle to claw back its budget in coming weeks. Still, it’s nothing compared to ‘Welcome to Marwen’, who somehow did worse than our pessimistic expectations of $4.3m with just $2.4m for 9th place.

Finally, it was a close-call between ‘Mary Queen of Scots’ and ‘The Favourite’ for 10th spot. Both award-hopeful royalty-focused period-dramas were practically tied coming into Sunday night, with ‘Mary’ just edging the fight with $2.3m, versus ‘The Favourite’s $2.1m.

The Christmas competition didn’t disappoint, and the big day itself sees ‘Vice’ and ‘Holmes and Watson’ enter wide to add more fun to the mix. How will the two fair against the competition? Let us know your thoughts on Twitter and Instagram – we’re at @JUMPCUT_ONLINE.

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 *includes gross from Amazon previews

**includes gross from Wednesday onwards

 

 

The Smallest Weekend Of The Year Sees ‘Ralph Breaks The Internet’ Score A Hattrick with $16m: Box Office Report

It was always going to be a small weekend.

Friday to Sunday in the Box Office sphere saw just $84.5m grossed from 87 movies across the United States, and was topped by three-time winner ‘Ralph Breaks the Internet’ with $16.3m. Only two films in 2018 have stayed at number 1 in the Box Office charts for longer than ‘Ralph’, and both – ‘Black Panther’ (5 weekends) and ‘Jumanji’ (4 weekends) – became Box Office behemoths in the process.

Ralph’ won’t be following in their footsteps, as its three-peat is the result of a severe lack of Box Office competition than a record-breaking opening or an incredibly leggy run. Although it won’t tip Disney’s balance sheet like ‘Black Panther’ did, it does, however, stand at a respectable $141m after 3 weekends.

Internationally, it added an extra $18m for a worldwide total of $258.9m, and should top ‘Wreck-It Ralph’s $471.2m global gross by the end of December.

All seems well for those at Disney, although the lingering fear that ‘Ralph’s $175m price-tag may harm the potential of theatrical profitability is only heightened by comparisons to ‘The Grinch’, who, after earning $15m this weekend, becomes the 6th biggest domestic film of the year with $222.3m in the bank ($325.2m globally).

This retelling of Dr. Seuss’ ‘How The Grinch Stole Christmas’, produced by ‘Minions’ helmers Illumination, cost $100m less than ‘Ralph’ and sits comfortably behind ‘Incredibles 2’ as the second biggest animated film of the year.

Both studios take vastly different approaches to their productions, with Disney’s focus on improvements in picture quality resulting in ballooning budgets and giant break-even numbers. This may work when ‘Incredibles 2’ earned $1.2bn off of a $200m production cost, but for the smaller releases like ‘Ralph’, it’s the Illumination model that shines the brightest.

Next is MGM’s ‘Creed II’, earning $10m for 3rd place, ahead of ‘Fantastic Beasts 2’ ($7m) and ‘Bohemian Rhapsody’ ($6.1m). A 40% drop edges it ever closer to the century mark domestically, and just $13m away from reaching ‘Creed’s total gross. Its sights are firmly set on ‘Rocky IV’s $127.9m domestic total however, which still stands as the biggest boxing movie gross in U.S. history, 33 years after its release. It’s a title ‘Creed II’ should definitely win, although upsets do happen.

Finally, last weekend’s lonely newcomer ‘The Possession of Hannah Grace’ brought in $3.2m from Friday to Sunday, leaving it on a respectable $11.5m gross overall.

The quiet before the storm; this weekend was the last without any new wide releases before next week’s onslaught. Who is going to suffer the most when 3 new films come into play next weekend? Let us know your thoughts on Twitter and Instagram – we’re at @JUMPCUT_ONLINE.

 

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‘Ralph Breaks The Internet’ Goes For The Hattrick With $15m Weekend: Box Office Predictions

Written by Dapo Olowu

There won’t be any new major releases troubling the Box Office weekend, clearing the way for ‘Ralph Breaks the Internet’ to top the charts for the third consecutive time.

Only fellow-Disney release, ‘Black Panther’, and Sony’s ‘Jumanji’ have stayed at number 1 for longer this year, but ‘Ralph’s forecasted $14.8m will be the 2nd lowest weekend winner of 2018, after ‘Jumanji’s $10.9m saw it beat out ‘Maze Runner 3’ and ‘Winchester’ in early February.

It’s also a gross that’ll draw ‘Ralph’ to within inches of a $140m total, just $4m behind 2016’s ‘Moana’ (another Disney Thanksgiving treat) at the same point in its run, with a view to earning around $220m by the time it ends in cinemas.

That, of course, far exceeds ‘Wreck-It Ralph’s $189.4m domestic total from 2012, but this won’t be the only sequel of the weekend looking to improve upon its predecessor’s success, as ‘Creed II’s $10m weekend should edge it over the $100m domestic mark, leaving the film just a few million short of ‘Creed’s $109.8m total.

Already the 9th biggest boxing movie in U.S. history (after only 17 days in release), the drama should leapfrog ‘Million Dollar Baby’ into 5th spot by Sunday night, with its sights firmly set on ‘Rocky IV’. Reaching the record-holder’s $127.9m gross will surely make for an exciting title fight in itself.

Before ‘Creed II’ this weekend comes ‘The Grinch’, which looks to gross $12m to continue what’s been an impressive Box Office performance so far. Seeing off family-friendly competition in ‘Ralph’ and ‘Fantastic Beasts 2’ (the latter will continue its dizzying drop with a $5.7m weekend) has seen the film rise up the ranks as one of the biggest domestic hits of the year.

Specifically, ‘The Grinch’ sits in 10th place behind ‘Venom’ and ‘Solo’ in 9th and 8th respectively, and in a few days will pass not only them in the yearly list, but also ‘The Lorax’ as Illumination’s 7th biggest film. Reaching ‘Despicable Me’ in 6th with $251.5m, however, may be a step too far for the Seuss-adaptation, which will likely finish in the $240m region.

Finally, last weekend’s only newbie ‘The Possession of Hannah Grace’ won’t be terrorizing its audience for much longer, dropping by over 50% to gross $3m, passing the $10m domestic mark in the process.

Next week sees our films, after two empty weekends, come up against ‘Mortal Engines’, ‘The Mule’, and ‘Spider-Man: Into The Spider-Verse’. How will they fair in the face of actual competition? Let us know your thoughts on Twitter and Instagram – we’re at @JUMPCUT_ONLINE.

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‘Ralph Breaks The Internet’s $25m Weekend Makes It 14 Number 1’s In 2018 For Disney: Box Office Report

Written by Dapo Olowu

Just the one wide release this weekend in ‘The Possession of Hannah Grace’ meant that ‘Ralph Breaks the Internet’ faced little in the way of competition, ending Sunday night atop the Box Office charts.

Its $25.6m gross was a little on the low side of our $30m forecast, giving it a domestic total of $119.1m – now behind ‘Moana’ in the same point in its run ($119.8m), but ahead of ‘Wreck-It Ralph’ by almost $20m at the same stage. ‘Moana’, of course, went on to earn a remarkable $248.8m stateside, while ‘Wreck-It Ralph’ grossed $189.4m in 2012.

Ralph Breaks the Internet’s weekend marked Disney’s 14th Box Office #1 of 2018 from just 5 films (afterBlack Panther’, ‘Infinity War’, ‘Solo’, andAnt-Man 2’), leaving the studio well clear of nearest competitors Universal and Warner Bros, who both boast 9 weekend winners apiece.

Just 4 weekends remain until 2018 draws to a close, and Disney aren’t finished yet, with ‘Ralph’ looking for a 3rd straight win in a week’s time, and ‘Mary Poppins Returns’ opening on the 19th. Internationally, ‘Ralph’ made $33.7m from 27 countries, including snatching first place in the U.K. This gives the film a worldwide total of $207.1m after just 2 weeks in release, with more to come by the end of the year.

There was a closer fight than expected for second place, involving ‘The Grinch’ and MGM’s ‘The Creed II’. ‘The Grinch’ ultimately won this round, earning $17.9m against ‘Creed II’s $16.6m, but the latter can take solace from the fact that it’s just $20m away from passing the century mark domestically, $30m away from beating its predecessor ‘Creed’s domestic total, and $50m away from becoming the biggest boxing movie in U.S. history.

The Grinch’, meanwhile, crossed $200m in the U.S, sneaking in at 10 on the biggest grossing films of the year list with $203.7m. Now in its 4th weekend, it’s survived threats from ‘Ralph’ and ‘Fantastic Beasts 2’ and can now look to establish itself as the year’s second-biggest animated hit, behind the record-breaking ‘Incredibles 2’.

Finally, the only new release of the weekend came from Sony, as ‘The Possession of Hannah Grace’ haunted audiences across the States to earn an impressive $6.4m from just 2,000 cinemas. Its 17% on the Tomatometer and C- on Cinemascore hint at a film that wasn’t adored by critics or audiences alike, but from just a $9.5m budget, its reception may not prove to be as important when its run is over.

With ‘The Grinch’ working its way into the top ten domestic hits of the year, can it stay there once ‘Aquaman’, ‘Mary Poppins’, and ‘Spider-Man: Into the Spiderverse’ come around? Let us know your thoughts on Twitter and Instagram – we’re at @JUMPCUT_ONLINE.

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‘Creed II’ Goes For The Title Whilst ‘Ralph Breaks The Internet’ Remains Top In Slow Weekend: Box Office Predictions

Written by Dapo Olowu

As the tumbleweed rolls through this barren Box Office weekend, you may be forgiven for asking why just 1 film is opening wide on Friday (and none 7 days later). The post-Thanksgiving weekend is one of historical dryness – this time last year saw 0 films open in over 600 cinemas, although it did welcome the release of award-fodder ‘The Disaster Artist’ and ‘The Shape of Water’ in a few theatres each.

Why? The mid-December onslaught, which in 2018 includes ‘Aquaman’, ‘Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse’, ‘Bumblebee’, and ‘Mary Poppins Returns amongst many others, leaves studios in a difficult scheduling position, where they’re forced to contend with both the Thanksgiving’s leftovers, as well as the upcoming competition.

Leaving this release date alone is almost always preferred – the 2-week theatrical guarantee means that most big films have a fortnight in the cinemas before their screen counts drop. Of course, this would swallow up most releases in the upcoming weekend, leaving Sony’s low-budget horror ‘The Possession of Hannah Grace’ as the only new film to torment cinemagoers from around 2,000 theatres. The film follows the story of an ‘exorcism gone wrong’, and stars Shay Mitchell (‘Pretty Little Liars’), Shana Katic (‘Castle’), and Grey Damon (‘Aquarius’).

Much like 2016s ‘Incarnate’, which opened to $2.5m on its way to a $4.8m domestic finish, ‘The Possession of Hannah Grace’ won’t seriously trouble many in the top ten, and its forecasted $2.6m gross may even be too optimistic, as the strong Thanksgiving weekend holdovers will leave this supernatural thriller needing more than just some holy water.

Ralph Breaks the Internet’, last weekend’s winner, will remain on top, pulling in a solid $30m to bring its domestic total close to $120m. Although its ahead of both ‘Coco’ and ‘Moana’ at the same point in their runs, ‘Ralph 2’ will be lucky to finish close to the latter’s $248.8m total – sequel-itis can be unforgiving. The front-loaded nature of franchises can be seen with ‘Fantastic Beasts 2’, which will struggle to reach a $200m domestic total (while ‘FB1’ hit $234m). The ‘Harry Potter’ spinoff should earn around $15m this weekend for 4th place.

The same can’t be said for ‘Creed II’ however, who after less than 2 weeks of release is just $40m off ‘Creed’s entire domestic gross. The film stands currently bells in as the 10th biggest boxing film in U.S. history, and an $18m this weekend gross will see it leapfrog predecessor ‘Rocky Balboa’ into 9th spot. The fighter student has become the master trainer, it seems, but Michael B. Jordan and co. won’t be stopping here, as its sights are fittingly set on ‘Rocky IV’s record $127.9m total. Whether or not it’ll deliver that knock-out gross, we’ll see.

The DiCaprio-produced ‘Robin Hood’ gets an honourable mention here too, as it grasps to remain in the top ten. A film likely to litter many a ‘Box Office Bombs of 2018’ list (including ours), its $3.9m weekend should see it pass the $20m mark domestically but not much else, with a likely finish of $30m in store.

In a more uneventful Box Office weekend, ‘Ralph Breaks the Internet’ has the opportunity to extend its stronghold, while ‘Creed II’ has eyes on the title belt. Will the latter make it, and will ‘Ralph 2’ best that of ‘Coco’ and ‘Moana’? Let us know your thoughts on Twitter and Instagram – we’re at @JUMPCUT_ONLINE.

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‘Creed II’ And ‘Ralph Breaks The Internet’ Triumph, But ‘Robin Hood’ Falls On Its Sword In Record Thanksgiving Weekend (Box Office Report)

Written by Dapo Olowu

2018’s Box Office continues to deliver the goods, this time in the form of a record-breaking Thanksgiving holiday led by the impressive performances of ‘Ralph Breaks the Internet’ and ‘Creed II’.

Both films finished the 5-day holiday weekend with a combined $140m, which contributed heavily to the record $314m total – besting 2013s $294m, which included the still-standing record opening for ‘Frozen’ ($93.6m), and record gross for ‘The Hunger Games: Catching Fire’ ($109.9m).

Still, this time around gave us ‘Ralph Breaks the Internet’, which warmed the hearts (and wallets) of cinemagoers and earned a smashing $84.8m, including $56.2m from Friday to Sunday. It becomes the second biggest Thanksgiving opening of all time, beating out the likes of Disney companions ‘Coco’ ($72.9m) and ‘Moana’ ($82.1m), and now stands as the 13th time Disney’s topped the charts this year (from only 5 films).

Creed II’ was equally as impressive, with its $56m 5-day gross becoming the 7th biggest Thanksgiving opening ever, and the holiday’s largest live-action release of all time. The records don’t stop, as the film’s Friday to Sunday gross of $35.6m means it’s the biggest ever opening for a sports drama – beating 2009s ‘The Blind Side’ ($34.1m).

It marks Michael B. Jordan, Tessa Thompson, and Sylvester Stallone’s (cameos included) 2nd biggest openings ever, considering all 3’s ventures into the high-earning world of the MCU. Produced on a $50m budget, the sequel to 2015s ‘Creed’ sees Adonis Creed (Jordan) face Viktor Drago, son of Ivan, who famously killed his father in ‘Rocky IV’.

Internationally, while ‘Creed II’ only entered the U.S. market this weekend, ‘Ralph Breaks the Internet’ saw its audiences just as enthusiastic, earning $19.5m from China on its way to a $41.5m start. From just 19 countries, its worldwide total currently stands at a strong $127m.

This year’s Thanksgiving turkey goes to ‘Robin Hood’, which was put to the sword with a paltry $14.3m in its first 5 days. It somehow managed to gross below last year’s bomb ‘King Arthur: Legend of the Sword’s 3-day $15.4m opening, and its $9.2m Friday to Sunday will ensure the film goes down as one of the Box Office flops of the year.

It doesn’t get any better, as its 14% on Rotten Tomatoes should stop any chances of a semi-decent Box Office run dead in its tracks, and its international start consisting of just $1.7m from the U.K. and only $7m from 32 other countries means it hasn’t taken well across the globe. Distributing studio Lionsgate, it seems, have finished the year with a whimper, and not a roar.

The final 2 wide releases this weekend came in the form of ‘Green Book’, a critically-acclaimed biopic starring Viggo Mortensen and Mahershala Ali, and Jason Reitman’s ‘The Front Runner’, starring Hugh Jackman. It was a case of opposite fortunes, as ‘Green Book’ over-delivered on its expectations with $7.5m from just 1,000 cinemas, while ‘The Front Runner’ floundered with a poor $888k, for a total of just $1.1m.

It was a memorable Thanksgiving weekend, with records broken and ‘Ralph Breaks the Internet’ and ‘Creed II’ impressing. Will both films go onto beat their predecessors, or will sequel-itis strike again? Let us know your thoughts on Twitter and Instagram – we’re at @JUMPCUT_ONLINE.

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Weekend BO Predictions: ‘Ralph Breaks The Internet’ And ‘Creed 2’ To Feast On A Record-Breaking Thanksgiving Weekend

Written by Dapo Olowu

We’re in for a record-breaking Box Office treat this Thanksgiving weekend, with five (yes, five) new releases wetting the appetites of cinemagoers across the United States. The five-day holiday period kicked off on Wednesday and saw ‘Ralph Breaks the Internet’, the sequel to 2012s ‘Wreck-It Ralph’, fight it out against ‘Rocky’ spinoff ‘Creed 2’ with a Thanksgiving record Tuesday preview gross of $3.8m, just ahead of ‘Creed 2’s $3.7m.

Questions were being asked about Disney’s decision to spend $175m on a sequel over 6 years after ‘Wreck-It Ralph’ flattered to deceive in the Box Office. Its so-so $49m opening in November 2012, followed by a $189.4m domestic finish (and $471.2m worldwide gross) off the back of a $165m budget leaves it just 46th on the all-time biggest domestic animated films, and doesn’t even crack the top 50 worldwide.

Ralph Breaks the Internet’s preview gross however shows an audience whose anticipation has sky-rocketed in the half-decade since, with critical reception equaling the lofty heights the first film set. The sequel sees the return of the beloved voices of John C. Reilly and Sarah Silverman, alongside newbies Gal Gadot and Taraji P. Henson. Director Rich Moore returns to the chair and shares the credit with ‘Zootopia’ writer Phil Johnston.

Disney aims to top the Thanksgiving Box Office charts for the third year in a row, with ‘Moana’ ($56.6m) and ‘Coco’ ($50.8m) providing a glimpse into the potential Box Office prowess of ‘Ralph Breaks the Internet’. A $60m 3-day gross, just $7m short of the Thanksgiving record set by Frozen in 2013, and an $84m 5-day total won’t necessarily see Ralph break the internet, but it’ll get mightily close to doing so.

Steven Caple Jr.’s ‘Creed 2’ won’t go down without a fight however. Its $3.7m Tuesday preview gross more than doubles the first’s $1.4m 3 years ago. The lack of Coogler isn’t dampening the excitement either – its Cinemascore of A is the best of the new releases this holiday period.

The film sees Adonis Creed (Michael B. Jordan), son of deceased Apollo, facing off against the son of his father’s killer, Viktor Drago. Sylvester Stallone, who was nominated for an Oscar for his role as Rocky Balboa in the last film, returns alongside Tessa Thompson and Phylicia Rashad.

It won’t just be Adonis facing a title bid. ‘Creed 2’s forecasted $39m 3-day start will see it break ‘The Blind Side’s $34.1m opening record for a sports movie, and even drawing it close to ‘Creed’s 5-day $42m Thanksgiving start. While ‘Creed’ made a total of $109.8m domestically and $173.6m worldwide in 2015, its sequel has ambitions of breaking the $200m global mark, becoming studio MGM’s biggest hit since 2008s ‘Valkyrie’.

Not all films are eating well this Thanksgiving, however, with Lionsgate’s ‘Robin Hood’ feeding off of Box Office scraps. An estimated $14m 3-day gross doesn’t seem too problematic on the surface, but its bloated $100m budget means that any hopes of the film turning a profit remain as mythical as Robin Hood himself.

Being produced by one of the world’s greatest actors in Leonardo DiCaprio hasn’t seemed to aid the film critically either, as its paltry 11% on Rotten Tomatoes diminishes all hopes of a leggy Box Office run. Opening in just 2,800 cinemas is possibly the icing on the cake for the latest iteration of the British legend, which sees Taron Egerton play Robin of Loxley, Jamie Foxx as Little John, Eve Hewson as Maid Marian, and Ben Mendelsohn as the Sheriff of Nottingham.

The final two new releases this Thanksgiving holiday come in the form of Oscar hopeful ‘Green Book’ and Hugh Jackman-fronted ‘The Front Runner’. Both are coming off the backs of limited releases, but while ‘Green Book’ may break into the top ten with a 3-day gross close to $5m, ‘The Front Runner’ will be D.O.A., earning just $1m in its 3rd weekend.

We’re likely to see the biggest Thanksgiving weekend ever by Sunday night – propelled by the efforts of ‘Ralph Breaks the Internet’ and ‘Creed 2’. However, will ‘Robin Hood’ exceed expectations, or hinder this weekend’s potential record-breaking efforts? Let us know your thoughts on Twitter and Instagram – we’re at @JUMPCUT_ONLINE.

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Weekend BO Report: ‘Fantastic Beasts 2’ Opens To A Franchise-low $62m In A Less-Than-Magical Weekend

Written by Dapo Olowu

This Box Office weekend saw ‘Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald’ fall ill to the much rampant ‘sequel-itis’, an affliction affecting many other recent big-budget Hollywood follow-ups. Symptoms vary, but in the case of ‘Fantastic Beasts 2’, a mixture of an ordinary critical & moviegoer reception (40% on RT and a B+ on Cinemascore), and a packed film schedule, have seen the film suffer a $10m drop-off from its predecessor 2 years ago, to earn $62.2m – the lowest of the ‘Harry Potter’ films so far.

Of course, ‘Fantastic Beasts 2’s condition is nowhere near critical, but way under our $70m+ expectations. Two years ago, ‘Fantastic Beasts’ went onto finish at $234m domestically, and $580m overseas for a total of $814m worldwide. Its lop-sided domestic/international split is a precursor to Warner Bros’ cure for ‘Fantastic Beasts 2’; a focus on its international revenue.

Every ‘Wizarding World’ film has had its ratio somewhere in the 30:70 region, with ‘Fantastic Beasts’ and ‘The Deathly Hallows Pt. 2’ earning just 28% of their respective totals in the U.S. Warner Bros. have taken this into consideration with ‘Fantastic Beasts 2’, ditching the staggered international release option to open in 80 major markets across the globe at once.

We’re already seeing the treatment work: the film opened to over $191m overseas this weekend, eclipsing ‘Fantastic Beasts$145.5m international start. ‘Fantastic Beasts 2’s international gross from 79 countries included $37.5m from China and over $16m from the U.K, with Japan still to open at the end of the month.

Still, there’ll be many at WB who hoped for a better domestic start. ‘Fantastic Beasts’ earned a surprising opening weekend/domestic total multiplier of 3.15x when it grossed $234m back in 2016, while ‘Fantastic Beasts 2’, whose U.S. total seems destined to be the far more frontloaded, should end a domestic finish under $200m. It’s clear as the more U.S. audiences grow weary of a wider ‘Harry Potter’ universe (this is the second of five planned films), international moviegoers aren’t letting go just yet.

It also marks good news for ‘The Grinch’, as Illumination’s comedy remains the biggest opening of the month so far. Its second weekend gross of $38.6m gives it a $127m running total, ahead of Illumination’s last Seuss adaptation ‘The Lorax’ at the same time in its run.

Another of the new releases this weekend, ‘Instant Family’, failed to make an impact, grossing only $14.5m. The PG-13 comedy sees a similar opening to this year’s ‘I Feel Pretty’ ($16m) and ‘Tag’ ($14.9m), two comedies that finished at around $50m. ‘Instant Family’ boasts the best reception of the three, and its A on Cinemascore should grant it some staying power in coming weekends.

Staying power like ‘Daddy’s Home’ and ‘Daddy’s Home 2’, the previous collabs between director Sean Anders and star Mark Wahlberg, would be ideal, with a run like ‘Daddy’s Home’ in particular giving ‘Instant Family’ a $60m finish. Of course, this wouldn’t be anywhere near enough to guarantee profitability, raising the questions of firstly, who greenlit its $48m budget, and then, who forgot to call Will Ferrell to co-star?

If ‘Instant Family’ was neither here nor there, then ‘Widows’ is the flop of the weekend. With its $12.4m opening (from a $42m budget), the critically-acclaimed crime drama will likely finish on a domestic total around $35m.

Not the best news for director Steve McQueen, whose latest offering actually marks his biggest Box Office opening to date (overtaking ’12 Years a Slave’s $6.7m). It isn’t great news for studio 20th Century Fox either, as this marks another flop in a year where ‘Deadpool 2’ and ‘Bohemian Rhapsody’ have had to cover the losses of ‘The Darkest Minds’, ‘Bad Times at the El Royale’, ‘Red Sparrow’, and ‘The Predator’.

Widows’ ill-fortune may stem from an audience who didn’t connect with the film. Its B on Cinemascore and 65% audience RT score are just above-average, perhaps due to a marketing campaign that promoted a faster paced, heist-y film than the slower, character-driven story we ended up with. Regardless, it’s likely we’ll remember ‘Widows’ in the future for its award-season success, rather than its Box Office triumphs.

Thanksgiving weekend comes to town next weekend, with three more major releases – ‘Wreck It Ralph 2’, ‘Robin Hood’, and ‘Creed 2’ – looking to inflict damage onto this weekend’s three newbies, but who will hold up the best? Let us know your thoughts on Twitter and Instagram – we’re at @JUMPCUT_ONLINE.

Smoothwall