Weekend BO Report: ‘Solo’ Continues To Crash But ‘Action Point’ Is The Real Catastrophe

 

Written by Dapo Olowu

A second weekend at the top of the Box Office charts was a certainty, barring a freak collapse, but ‘Solo’ still only crawled to the finish line with a total of $29.4m, a major 65% drop from 7 days ago. It fared a little better internationally, where it fell by only 47%, but brought in just $30.3m here for a global total of $264.4m. Remember, ‘Solo’ comes from the same family of films as ‘The Force Awakens’, that opened in the U.S. alone to $248m in 2015 – a number that ‘Solo’ won’t reach in its entire domestic run. The gross it will finally end on is up for debate. Its second weekend drop mirrored 2014s ‘X-Men: Days of Future Past’s 64% fall, but while the latter was able to nab a 2.58x opening weekend multiplier, the upcoming ‘Incredibles 2’ and ‘Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom’ will surely cut ‘Solo’s Box Office legs short. Could we see ‘Solo’ crash and burn at under $200m domestically? It’s looking more and more like reality as each day passes.

Deadpool 2’ is now just $2m away from a global gross of $600m, with still enough left in the tank to close in on $700m. The duo has confirmed themselves as the biggest R-rated franchise of all time, overtaking the ‘Fifty Shades’ trilogy’s $1.32bn worldwide gross, with $1.38bn. It’s a little difficult to ignore the diminishing returns here; ‘Deadpool 2’ is currently 11% behind its predecessor at the same point in its run, but with bucketloads of profit already assured, Fox won’t be too displeased. Its third weekend showed an interesting similarity to MCU films ‘Thor: Ragnarok’ and ‘Iron Man 2’; all three by the third weekend had/have domestic totals in the region of $250m. A finish nearing $310m for ‘Deadpool 2’ is thus likely, a fantastic return for the merc with the mouth, and for the studio willing to take the risk on the comic book hero.

The biggest new release of the weekend went to ‘Adrift’, which sailed steadily to an $11.6m total, in-line with our below-teen prediction on Friday. Its solid 70% on Rotten Tomatoes, and B on Cinemascore should give it the legs it needs to reach the shores of profitability, and it gets a further boost from the lack of any meaningful competition in the coming weeks. Still, the production cost of $35m, and heavily-skewed audience (69% of viewers were over 25), lands it in choppy waters with little room to grow. It’s a mixed-year for STX Entertainment thus far; ‘Gringo’ flopped with a $5m gross, whilst ‘I Feel Pretty’ and ‘Den of Thieves’ both performed decently, with over $70m each from $30m budgets. Its upcoming Mark Wahlberg shoot-em-up, ‘Mile 22’, and Melissa McCarthy comedy, ‘The Happytime Murders’, probably won’t buck the trend either.

Infinity War held on strong this weekend to bring in $10.5m, but the real story this comes from China, as it dropped only 25% this weekend for a total of $356.2m – the 3rd biggest Hollywood film in Chinese history. Its current global total is $1.97bn, and although $2bn is guaranteed, reaching ‘The Force Awakens’ $2.07bn total seems like a step too far. Fifth spot goes to ‘Book Club’, which again boasted the lowest drop of the weekend, by only falling by 30% to take home $7m. Even with potential competition in ‘Adrift’, the rom-com is comfortably over $50m globally at the moment with a clear schedule ahead.

Now for one of the biggest surprises of the weekend, ‘Upgrade’ smashed expectations by grossing $4.7m in its first three days – enough to be BH Tilt’s second biggest opener ever, and needing just a multiplier of 2.3x to become their biggest ever domestic hit. The sci-fi horror opened in under 1,500 cinemas but was able to boast the 4th best per-cinema average of the weekend, with $3,206. Both ‘Life of the Party’ andBreaking In’ continued their similar runs by bringing in $3.5m and $2.8m each, with domestic totals reaching $46.4m and $41.3m respectively.

No words can really describe just how badly Johnny Knoxville’s ‘Action Point’ did this weekend. It bombed, bringing in just $2.4m of a $19m budget. Far away from our hopeful $9m start, ‘Action Point’ suffered from the lack of advertising, 19% on Rotten Tomatoes (and C+ on Cinemascore), and no tie-in with the ‘Jackass’ franchise that launched Knoxville’s career. Paramount likely knew this would flop from a while back, and thus limited their exposure by spending as little as possible on promotion, which only raises the question: did they attempt to sell this to Netflix? Like they did with ‘Annihilation’ & ‘The Cloverfield Paradox’? The final film rounding off our top ten list was ‘Overboard’, which brought in $1.9m, just $170k off of ‘A Quiet Place’ in 11th.

Next weekend sees the horror ‘Hereditary’, crime thriller ‘Hotel Artemis’, and star-studded heist comedy ‘Oceans 8’ enter the picture. How will they get on against our current top ten? Let us know your thoughts on Twitter and Instagram – we’re at @JUMPCUT_ONLINE.

 

Rank Last Week Rank Film Total U.S. Gross Weekend Gross Weekend drop Jumpcut’s prediction Difference Week number
1 1 Solo: A Star Wars Story $149m $29.4m -65.2% $33m $3.6m 2
2 2 Deadpool 2 $254.5m $23.2m -46.7% $22m $1.2m 3
3 Adrift $11.6m $11.6m $12.5m $0.9m 1
4 3 Avengers: Infinity War $643m $10.5m -39.2% $9.4m $1.1m 6
5 4 Book Club $47.6m $7m -30.1% $7.3m $0.3m 3
6 Upgrade $4.7m $4.7m $3.8m $0.9m 1
7 5 Life of the Party $46.4m $3.5m -34.9% $3.6m $0.1m 4
8 6 Breaking In $41.3m $2.8m -34.4% $2.5m $0.3m 4
9 Action Point $2.4m $2.4m $9m $6.6m 1
10 8 Overboard $45.5m $1.9m -37.8% 5

 

 

 

Weekend BO Predictions: ‘Solo’ Manages Top Spot As The New Entrants Cement Top 10 Positions

Written by Dapo Olowu

The New Releases

Leading the pack of new releases in the U.S. this weekend is romantic drama ‘Adrift’, based on the true story of a couple stranded in the Pacific Ocean in 1983. The film, starring Shailene Woodley and Sam Claflin, is looking to emulate the latter’s summer 2016 effort ‘Me Before You’, which opened to $18.7m before ending on a respectable $56.2m domestically and a whopping $208.3m worldwide. We’re dampening our estimates this time around as ‘Adrift’ just doesn’t have the luxury of being based on a book or starring a lead from ‘Game of Thrones’ in Emilia Clarke.

What it does have, however, is Golden Globe nominee Woodley in her first film since ‘Divergent: Allegiant’, as well Claflin coming off of a lead role in the JUMPCUT darling ‘Journey’s End’. Fun fact: Sam Claflin’s role was originally meant for Miles Teller, which would’ve marked his 5th collab with Shailene. Trivia aside, we’re using the opening of last September’s ‘The Mountain Between Us’ to predict ‘Adrift’, which not only had the same production budget but similarly saw a stranded Idris Elba and Kate Winslet find love. We’re therefore looking at an opening of around $12.5m, just $1m short of rom-com ‘Book Club’s start 2 weekends ago.

Johnny Knoxville’s ‘Action Point’ opens in a little over 2,000 cinemas, and with not even a Rotten Tomatoes critic score (never a good sign) to provide a general consensus, whose to know what this’ll gross? Knoxville’s last comedy, 2013s ‘Bad Grandpa’, made $32.1m in its first 3 days. No chance ‘Action Point’ will open to similar numbers; it’s in 1,300 less cinemas & has no tie-ins to ‘Jackass’, meaning we’re looking at a much lower gross. Last year’s R-rated ‘Baywatch’, which saw a $5,000 per-cinema average, had the benefit of being based on a popular TV show and starred Box Office gold ‘The Rock’, although ‘Action Point’s RT audience score of 83% gives it a major critical advantage. Taking into this account, a $4,500 cinema average would give the comedy a respectable opening of around $9m.

Finally we have Sci-fi horror ‘Upgrade’ from BH Tilt, production company Blumhouse’s multi-platform subsidiary. This division has a knack for smaller releases, with their biggest release being 2016s ‘The Darkness’ in 1,769 cinemas. ‘Upgrade’, which enters 1,460 theatres this weekend, is by far the most critically acclaimed out of BH Tilt’s films, with a Rotten Tomatoes score of 86% besting BH Tilt’s current leader ‘Sleight’s 74%. It’s difficult to see where ‘Upgrade’ will land, but by using ‘Sleight’s per-cinema average as a rough guide, an opening close to $4m is in play.

What else is on?

Solo’s 2nd weekend is looking to be as horrendous as its first, as its daily fluctuations have almost mirrored those of ‘X-Men: Days of Future Past’, which ended up dropping by 64%. Although ‘X-Men’ films are notoriously front-loaded, its likely that a similar drop (~60%) is in store for ‘Solo’, especially when taking into account we’re coming off a holiday weekend. A stronger showing is expected from ‘Deadpool 2’, which looks to bounce back with a gross of around $22m this weekend to take its domestic gross to over $250m and its global cume closer to the $600m mark.

Infinity War’ continues to mirror ‘Guardians of the Galaxy 2’s performance last year in terms of their weekend drops, and has the benefit of not having direct competition in ‘Wonder Woman’ taking crucial Box Office gross away from it in its pursuit of a $2bn total. Its gross of $9.4m is closely followed not only by ‘Action Point’, but also by ‘Book Club’ which faces competition from ‘Adrift’ for an audience. A gross close to $7m will be in store for the film, just a 30% drop from last weekend. Melissa McCarthy’s comedy ‘Life of the Party’ will continue to hold strong, with a drop of under 40% from a week ago to close in on a global gross of $60m. ‘Breaking In’ and ‘Show Dogs’ round off the top ten, with $2.5m and $2m respectively.

What do you think? Will ‘Solo’ drop like a stone, and will ‘Action Point’ impress the crowd? Let us know your thoughts on Twitter and Instagram – we’re at @JUMPCUT_ONLINE.

 

Rank Last Week’s Rank Film US Gross so far Budget Jumpcut’s prediction Weekend drop Week no. BoxOfficeMojo’s prediction Deadline’s Prediction Variety’s Prediction
1 1 Solo: A Star Wars Story $115.2m $300m+ $33m -61% 2 $30m $30m-$33m $50m-$60m
2 2 Deadpool 2 $227.8m $110m $22m -49% 3 $22.6m $21m $25m-$30m
3 Adrift $35m $12.5m 1 $13m $13.2m $7m-$11m
4 3 Avengers: Infinity War $631.1m $300m $9.4m -46% 6 $11.2m
5 Action Point $19m $9m 1 $5.5m $4m-$7m
6 4 Book Club $39m $10m $7.3m -27% 3 $7.3m
7 Upgrade $3.8m 1 $2.5m $3m $3m
8 5 Life of the Party $42.3m $30m $3.6m -35% 4 $2.8m
9 6 Breaking In $38.2m $6m $2.5m -42% 4 $2.6m
10 7 Show Dogs $12.7m $5.5m $2m -41% 3

 

 

Weekend BO Results: ‘Solo’ is DOA As ‘Infinity War’ Closes In On $2 Billion

Written by Dapo Olowu

If there was a lesson to be learned from ‘Solo’ bombing at the Box Office this weekend (and trust me, there are lessons), it’s that no franchise or property, however popular, is fully immune to disappointing returns. The late promotion, effects of a polarising ‘The Last Jedi’, mediocre reviews, poor release date, and a story that audiences never really asked for in the first place took its toll on the ‘Star Wars’ franchise – giving solo a 3-day opening of just $84.4m. The poor opening is further cemented by an International gross of just $68.2m; to put this into perspective, even March’s ‘Pacific Rim: Uprising’ opened abroad to $122.4m.

But what do these numbers mean? How can we already tell that ‘Solo’ is a Box Office bomb? Let’s have a look at its budget. We already know it’s the most expensive ‘Star Wars’ film of all time, but with Deadline recently reporting its production cost (before advertising charges, mind you) at well over $300m, ‘Solo’ is officially one of the most expensive films ever, and will thus need around $700m+ to break-even. From this, we can determine that a global opening of just over $150m does not cut it. We’re looking at ‘Solo’ finishing below $500m worldwide, losing well over $200m, making it one of the biggest Box Office flops of all time. It’s incredible. Just 2 and a half years ago, Disney released the biggest domestic film ever, and have now dropped a film in the same franchise that won’t even be the biggest film of the month.

We don’t want to revel in Disney’s failure here, but, there lingers a belief that Disney keeping its December release for ‘Solo’ would’ve at least ensured better Box Office legs, as well as causing potential competition to move their own release dates away. Instead, we have legitimised fears of ‘Star Wars’ fatigue, and serious questions over the future spinoffs (yes, including you Boba Fett) planned for the franchise. This, of course, comes after the $100m-budget ‘A Wrinkle In Time’ brought in just $129m worldwide recently, enough for losses well over $100m. A small consolation? Disney and Lucasfilm now have 1.5 years until ‘Episode 9’ to steer their wayward ship, and ensure profits continue for a potentially troubled franchise.

Solo’ wasn’t the only story of the Memorial Day weekend however, as ‘Deadpool 2’ dropped by 65% to pull in just $43.5m. We warned about the front-loaded sequel curse in our predictions on Friday, but this was a full $10m under our expectations. Still, its 4-day weekend total of $53.8m pushes its domestic grossing up to $218.5m, and globally it sits just a shade under the $500m mark. From a budget of $110m, Marvel are proving that R-rated franchises can also be money-makers if done well.

Next, we have ‘Infinity War’ which really benefited from ‘Solo’s weak performance, dropping by just 41% from last weekend. Now just $86m away from becoming the 4th film to ever reach $2bn, it passed ‘The Avengers’ domestically this weekend to claim 6th spot in the U.S. all-time charts. Although it won’t reach ‘Black Panther’ (which is still struggling to hit the $700m mark), Disney & Marvel studios will likely end the year with 2 of their 2018 releases in the domestic top 5 of all time.

One of the best performances of the weekend, Paramount’s ‘Book Club’, brought in a solid $10.1m in its 2nd week of release. It’s domestic total of $35.3m already gives it an opening weekend multiplier of 2.6x, putting it on track to be the one of the leggiest films of the year. ‘I Can Only Imagine’, the Christian biopic from mid-March, currently leads the pack with a 4.9x multiplier, but by the same point in its Box Office run as ‘Book Club’, it had a 2.2x multiplier. Paramount will be hoping that their rom-com continues this trend, and with the summer finally here, it’s looking likely to do so.

Life of the Party’ and ‘Breaking In’ both exceeded expectations by bringing in $5.4m and $4.3m each – their best drops yet. The Memorial Day weekend boosted this, as the big tentpole release this weekend had no impact on their audiences. Although the $30m budget may prove to be too costly for the Melissa McCarthy comedy (which is currently at $48.5m globally), the Will Packer-produced ‘Breaking In’, starring Gabrielle Union, is potentially looking at breaking-even soon, as it’s made $40m from just a $6m investment.

Show Dogs’ is performing eerily similarly to 2016s ‘Nine Lives’ (both had 2nd weekend % drops in their mid-40s), showing that the kids are pretty consistent with the whole talking-animals-in-a-poorly-reviewed-family-comedy thing (well, that isn’t ‘Alvin & The Chipmunks’). With only $12m in the bank domestically, this can officially be classed a Box Office bomb. That can’t be said for the comedy ‘Overboard’, which only dropped 32% for a $43m domestic haul, even after losing over 600 cinemas. Similarly, ‘A Quiet Place’ lost 800 and is officially coming to the end of its domestic run, pulling in $2.4m. Its worldwide gross of $312.5m has surely exceeded expectations, and from just a $17m budget, it sits alongside ‘Black Panther’ and ‘Solo’ as 2018s biggest Box Office shock. Finally, ‘RBG’ (still in limited release) grossed $1.3m for the 10th and final spot.

There we have it. ‘Solo’ bombs, ‘Infinity War’ continues its ascent, and ‘Book Club’ begins to really impress. What will happen next week, when 3 new releases enter the picture? Let us know your thoughts on Twitter and Instagram – we’re at @JUMPCUT_ONLINE.

 

Rank Last Week Rank Film Total U.S. Gross Weekend Gross

(4-day weekend)

Weekend drop

(4-day weekend)

Jumpcut’s prediction

(4-day weekend)

Difference (4-day weekend) Week number
1 Solo: A Star Wars Story $103m $84.4m

($103m)

$85m

($103.7m)

$0.6m

($0.7m)

1
2 1 Deadpool 2 $218.5m $43.5m

($53.8m)

-65.4%

(-57.1%)

$53m $9.5m 2
3 2 Avengers: Infinity War $627.6m $17.3m

(22.4m)

-41.3%

(-23.8%)

$14.7m $2.6m 5
4 3 Book Club $35.3m $10.1m

($13.1m)

-25.8%

(-3.4%)

$9m $1.1m 2
5 4 Life of the Party $40.9m $5.4m

($6.9m)

-29.3%

(-9.6%)

$3.8m $1.6m 3
6 5 Breaking In $37.1m $4.3m

($5.5m)

-37.2%

(-19.4%)

$2.7m $1.6m 3
7 6 Show Dogs $11.9m $3.3m

($4.3m)

-45.8%

(-28.1%)

$2.8m $0.5m 2
8 7 Overboard $42.6m $3.1m

($4.1m)

-32.3%

(-10.5%)

$2.4m $0.7m 4
9 8 A Quiet Place $180.8m $2.4m

($3.1m)

-38.3%

(-20.6%)

$2.6m $0.2m 8
10 12 RBG $6.2m $1.3m

($1.7m)

+2.8%

(+37.8%)

$1m $0.3m 4

 

Weekend BO Predictions: Han And The Gang Ride Solo This Weekend As The Lone Release Aims For The Top Spot

 

Written by Dapo Olowu

The blockbusters just keep coming. Following the Marvel double of ‘Infinity War’ and ‘Deadpool’ gracing our screens in recent weeks, it’s Lucasfilm’s turn to provide the masses with film fodder, as ‘Solo: A Star Wars Story’ looks to break a Memorial Day opening weekend record and maintain the ‘Star Wars’ brand as Box Office dynamite. Meanwhile, ‘Deadpool 2’ looks to gain ground on its predecessor, and ‘Infinity War’ edges closer to $1.9bn globally – but will this holiday weekend grant their wishes?

So, what’s opening this weekend?

Much has been made of the production of ‘Solo’ – the rumours alone could provide quite a compelling behind-the-scenes documentary (get on it, Disney). If the story wasn’t the strange late promotional push for the film (we got its first trailer during February’s SuperBowl), it was about the on-set troubles, resulting in a directorial change and around 80% of the film reshot. The media, fans, and the general public had every right to ask questions; the reshoots alone almost doubled the budget, giving the film a rumoured cost of $250m – the most expensive ‘Star Wars’ film of all time. Ron Howard’s efforts led the film, based on beloved smuggler Han Solo, to an okay 69% on Rotten Tomatoes, placing it between ‘Revenge of the Sith’ and ‘Attack of the Clones’ as the 8th best (or 4th worst) received in the franchise.

The release date wasn’t seen to be a great idea, either.

Moving the release from its now-expected December slot (which this year, by the way, is full of competition like ‘Aquaman’ andMary Poppins Returns’) to May meant that its battling ‘Deadpool 2’s second weekend, as well as ‘Infinity War’, currently the 4th biggest film ever. This, remember, comes just 5 months after the release of ‘The Last Jedi’, one of the most polarising blockbusters in history; a film that left as many ‘Star Wars’ fans jumping for joy as it left others enraged. Coupled with the fact that Disney’s recent Memorial Day weekend history (‘Tomorrowland’, ‘Pirates of the Caribbean 5’, ‘Alice Through the Looking Glass’) have all flopped to varying degrees, it’s very likely that this’ll be the lowest Star Wars opening of the Disney era. ‘Solo’ probably won’t even reach the $1bn mark – a milestone every ‘Star Wars’ film (adjusted for inflation) has achieved – especially with China’s growing dislike of the films.

The 4-day weekend does provide a platform for the film to attract a summer crowd and boost those opening numbers, but there’s a sense of dread with this film that I haven’t felt for a movie in a franchise since ‘Justice League’ opened to a lowly $93.8m in November. The 4-day weekend record of $139.8m set by ‘Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End’, way back in 2007, is out of the question, with ‘Solo’ looking to miss the $100m mark in its first 3 days. A bit of maths would tell you that historically, this weekend’s extra day gives around a 20-22% bump from the 3-day total. So, if our estimates are correct, and we’re looking at ‘Solo’ opening close to ‘Days of Future Past’, a 3-day total of $85m for the first 3 days, and thus around $103.7m for its 4-day weekend. Make no mistake about it. This is bad news.

What else is showing?

After failing to break its own R-rated opening weekend record in the States last weekend, ‘Deadpool 2’ now has to contend with ‘Solo’ potentially attracting chunks of its audience, as well as the dreaded front-loaded sequel effect, where the second weekend drop increases from the previous film, due to the stronger fanbase clambering to see the film in its first week. Although holiday will help it regain some ground on ‘Deadpool’, I can see ‘Deadpool 2’ dropping close to 60% this weekend, for a total close to $53m. Another major film to potentially suffer at the hands of ‘Star Wars’ is ‘Infinity War’, which will be enjoying its 5th weekend of release in 3rd place. A 50% drop is on the cards but that won’t matter too much as $1.9bn will be reached in the next few days. After that, ‘Infinity War’ will be closing in on hitting $2bn and may even snatch 3rd place on the all-time list away from ‘The Force Awakens’.

The counter-programming angle has worked well for Paramount this year thus far, with ‘Book Club’ catering to a crowd not historically all-too-fond of spaceships, foul-mouthed anti-heroes, and giant purple monsters with gold gauntlets. From this, we expect a strong hold in its 2nd weekend, similar to ‘My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2’s -37% drop, for a total of around $9m. With that, it’ll reach $30m domestic, with releases in mainland Europe next week to come. Comedy ‘Life of the Party’ should fair slightly better this weekend than last with $3.8m, a 50% fall from last week’s poor showing.

Next is ‘Show Dogs’, which opened very similarly last weekend to another recent anthropomorphic flop ‘Nine Lives’. If that panned flick was anything to go by, ‘Show Dogs’ will be bringing in a paltry $2.8m in its second weekend. This will be closely followed by ‘Breaking In’, which looks to have another 60%-ish fall ($2.7m), and ‘A Quiet Place’, which still has a firm grip on the top ten with a $2.6m gross. With a $300m global take (enough for 9th place worldwide), the film’s also the 5th biggest horror in American history.

Finally, ‘Overboard’ will start to seriously haemorrhage screens to make way for the blockbusters, but will gross a respectable $2.4m, and ‘RBG’ should arise from the ashes to claim 10th spot with around $1m.

What do you think? Will ‘Solo’ get the record? Do you fancy ‘Infinity War’ to beat ‘The Force Awakens’? Let us know on Twitter and Instagram – we’re at @JUMPCUT_ONLINE.

 

Rank Last Week’s Rank Film US Gross so far Budget Jumpcut’s prediction Weekend drop Week no. BoxOfficeMojo’s prediction Deadline’s Prediction Variety’s Prediction
1 Solo: A Star Wars Story $250m $85m

($103.7m 4-day)

1 $108m ($134.2m 4-day) $135m-$170m (4-day) $130m-$150m (4-day)
2 1 Deadpool 2 $158m $110m $53m -58% 2 $53.5m $56m $50m-$60m
3 2 Infinity War $603.3m $300m $14.7m -50% 5 $17.5m
4 3 Book Club $20.3m $10m $9m -34% 2 $10m
5 4 Life of the Party $33.4m $30m $3.8m -50% 3 $4.2m
6 6 Show Dogs $7.3m $5.5m $2.8m -53% 2 $4.4m
7 5 Breaking In $31.1m $6m $2.7m -60% 3 $3.2m
8 8 A Quiet Place $177.4m $17m $2.6m -34% 8 $2.3m
9 7 Overboard $38.2m $12m $2.4m -48% 4 $2.1m
10 12 RBG $4.4m $1m -20% 4 $1.1m

 

Weekend BO Results: ‘Deadpool 2’ Hits Its Ceiling In A Weekend Of Big Box Office Drops

Written by Dapo Olowu

The build-up to the weekend saw one major talking point in particular: would ‘Deadpool 2’ beat ‘Deadpool’s opening weekend record for an R-rated film? We here at Jumpcut were certainly optimistic with our $140m+ prediction, but ‘Deadpool 2’ ultimately came in under the $132.4m target, with a $125.5m gross. Opening a few weeks after direct competition ‘Infinity War’ certainly did it no favours, but what’s most concerning is the realisation that ‘Deadpool’s popularity came from its bold and unique approach to a superhero film; could its sequel ever really recapture that magic in a bottle?

Its drop domestically wasn’t mirrored in the International markets however, where it infact grew to $176.3m – a record for 20th Century Fox. That brings its worldwide opening to a little over $300m, the biggest global opening weekend for an R-rated film, and a massive 3-day return off of a $110m investment. Some fears remain about ‘Deadpool 2’s domestic future, as sequels tend to be more front-loaded due to the early audience demand – but the improved numbers abroad may leave the film with a similar gross to its predecessor 2 years ago.

Next was ‘Infinity War’, which finally left the top spot after grossing $29.5m in its 4th weekend. With an expected 52% drop, eyes will now be looking forward to Friday, when Solo hits and inevitably hurts ‘Infinity War’s revenue some more. Now just $5m away from a $600m domestic total, it’s global cume of $1.8bn makes it the biggest summer movie of all time, as well as having the 3rd biggest overseas gross ever (ahead of ‘Furious 7’ and behind ‘Titanic’ and ‘Avatar’).

Next was Paramount’s ‘Book Club’, impressing us all with a $13.5m take, just $4m under ‘My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2’s opening in 2016. This is Paramount’s second film of the year that’s called upon new directors and original ideas, and the strategy is seemingly paying off, with ‘A Quiet Place’ and now Bill Holderman’s romantic comedy making waves in the Box Office from small budgets. Its A- on Cinemascore also shows it performed pretty well amongst its target audience, which usually translates into stronger Box Office legs.

If you were to think this was going to be another successful week for comedies after ‘Book Club’s decent opening however, ‘Life of the Party’ wants you to think again. In a way, this panned effort by married couple Melissa McCarthy and Ben Falcone was the comedic straw that broke the camel’s back; a drop of around 58% this weekend after ‘Deadpool 2’s release meant it only brought in $7.6m, a far cry from the $10m we originally predicted. That $30m budget isn’t looking like the greatest investment anymore, as this will surely go down as one of McCarthy’s weakest performers. Similarly, ‘Breaking In’ suffered massively and took a fall of 61.3%, a mirror image to 2016’s ‘When the Bough Breaks’ 61.4% drop in its second weekend. It now stands at $31.3m worldwide and will look to end up just over the $40m mark globally by the end of its run.

Show Dogs’ expectedly ended up as the runt of the new litter with a $6m gross this weekend. Remarkably, this was just the second ever film released by studio ‘Global Road’, with the first being the drama ‘Midnight Sun’ from March, which made a respectable $22m off a $2.8m budget. ‘Show Dogs’ couldn’t live up to the unremarkable heights that ‘Midnight Sun’ set, with an opening $3.5m under that and $2m under Will Arnett’s (and Gabriel Iglesias’) last feature, ‘The Nut Job 2’.

The last comedy in the top ten this week is ‘Overboard’, with ‘I Feel Pretty’ having a momentous 66.7% collapse and finishing in 11th. ‘Overboard’ took in $4.6m for a current domestic total of $37m, and global total of $49m. Its worldwide number is just $12m away from ‘How To Be a Latin Lover’s $61.9m gross, a feat achievable if it’s able to perform well against ‘Solo’ this upcoming weekend.

A Quiet Place’ had quite a brilliant time in China this weekend, where it finally opened to $17.5m – enough for 3rd place in their weekend rankings. In the US, it brought home a solid $3.9m in its 7th weekend, finally pushing it ahead of ‘Get Out’s domestic total of $176m with a gross of $176.1m. With $300m being reached sometime this week, this is shaping up to be one of the year’s most impressive Box Office performances.

Finally, we have ‘Rampage’ with a decent $1.6m gross, and for the second week running, a surprise in 10th spot, with ‘Super Troopers 2’ beating the odds by having a 31.7% increase from last weekend (even though it lost 900 cinemas). The reason? Its distributor, 20th Century Fox, decided to promote a double feature between it and ‘Deadpool 2’, allowing it to take home a respectable $1.3m.

What film surprised you this weekend? How will ‘Deadpool 2’ and ‘Infinity War’ do against Solo next week? Let us know your thoughts on Twitter and Instagram – we’re at @JUMPCUT_ONLINE.

 

Rank Last Week Rank Film Total U.S. Gross Weekend Gross Weekend drop Jumpcut’s prediction Difference Week number
1 Deadpool 2 $125.5m $125.5m $143m $17.5m 1
2 1 Avengers: Infinity War $595.8m $29.5m -52.6% $29.8m $0.3m 4
3 Book Club $13.6m $13.6m $12.5m $1.1m 1
4 2 Life of the Party $30.9m $7.6m -57.5% $10m $2.4m 2
5 3 Breaking In $29.1m $6.8m -61.3% $8m $1.2m 2
6 Show Dogs $6m $6m $7m $1m 1
7 4 Overboard $4.6m $4.6m -53.1% $5.9m $1.3m 3
8 5 A Quiet Place $176.1m $3.9m -38.9% $5m $1.1m 7
9 7 Rampage $92.5m $1.6m -54.4% $2.1m $0.5m 6
10 14 Super Troopers 2 $29.1m $1.3m +31.7% 5

Weekend BO Predictions: ‘Deadpool 2’ Looks To Break Its Own Record As ‘Infinity War’ Grabs 4th on All-Time List

Written by Dapo Olowu

It’s exciting times in the Box Office this weekend, with ‘Deadpool 2’ looking to break its own opening record, as well as ‘Infinity War’s recent dominance, to truly usher in the summer movie season. If that wasn’t enough, two more films (‘Book Club’ and ‘Show Dogs’) enter the running on a weekend looking to be as close as ever.

What’s opening this weekend?

It’s safe to say that 2016’s ‘Deadpool’ was a phenomenon; there’s even an entire Wikipedia page solely dedicated to the Box Office records it broke upon its release. The R-rated, $58m, action comedy, by a first-time director, not only became the biggest X-Men film ever, but also had the biggest February opening in the U.S. of all time at $132.4m (before ‘Black Panther’ made $202m this year). So, a sequel was always to be hotly anticipated, but with the release just weeks after ‘Infinity War’, you’d be quickly forgiven to say that excitement for ‘D2’ has been relatively muted.

The fears are justified; long-range tracking had the film opening way below the heights ‘Deadpool’ reached 2 years ago. However, ‘Deadpool 2’ soon began to break pre-sale records, coupled with Ryan Reynolds & Co.’s viral marketing campaigns, and an ever-so-slightly better 84% on Rotten Tomatoes, it quickly established itself as the next big film to see. The sequel aspect is important here too, as it doesn’t need to build an audience like its predecessor did: it already has one. From this (alongside its R-rated record $18.6m from Thursday previews), we’re predicting a stronger opening of over $140m — breaking its own R-rated domestic opening records in the process, and even aiming for the global opening crown too.

Whilst the ‘Deadpool’ franchise thrives on is its edginess and meta-jokes (that are as divisive as they are appealing), this weekend also sees a more traditional release: the romantic comedy ‘Book Club’. Its middling 64% on Rotten Tomatoes shouldn’t deter the older, female audience that it’s primarily intended for, as Hollywood haven’t been fruitful with their options recently. The film, starring Diane Keaton, Jane Fonda, Mary Steenburgen, and Andy Garcia, could well be looking to emulate ‘My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2’, which opened to $17.9m alongside the superhero epic ‘Batman v Superman’ back in March 2016. However, ‘Book Club’ doesn’t have the privilege of being the sequel to the biggest ever romantic comedy of all time, and therefore may only open to around $12m-$13m.

Finally, we have ‘Show Dogs’, which boasts possibly the most ridiculous cast of the year so far, with Ludacris, Will Arnett, Natasha Lyonne, Stanley Tucci, Alan Cumming, RuPaul, and Shaquille O’Neal starring in the child-friendly comedy. The 33% on Rotten Tomatoes and lack of IP ensures this won’t open as large as anthromorpic-darling, ‘Peter Rabbit’ did in February, and instead hopes to emulate Will Arnett’s last feature, ’The Nut Job 2’, with around $8m.

What else is on?

Interestingly, ‘Infinity War’ has performed similarly to another MCU movie, ‘Guardians of the Galaxy 2’. Both had exactly 55.5% drops during their second weekends, and while ‘Infinity War’ dropped 45.9% the next weekend, ‘Guardians’ nearly matched this with 46.9%. Its 4th weekend drop of 40% won’t be matched by ‘Infinity War’ this time around, however, with ‘Deadpool 2’ proving worthy competition. A gross of around $30m is expected, which doesn’t cause too much worry — as we speak, ‘Infinity War’ has taken another scalp in its quest for the $2bn mark, in the form of ‘Jurassic World’s 4th spot on the all-time global list.

We’ve seen comedies like ‘Overboard’ and ‘I Feel Pretty’ exceed expectations, by holding firm against competition and blockbusters, regardless of critical reception. ‘Life of the Party’ looks to continue this trend with a gross of $10m this weekend, just a 40% drop from a week ago. The same can’t be said for ‘Breaking In’, which is performing very similarly to other female-led thrillers that are usually characterised by 50%-ish second weekend drops. From this, an $8m weekend is expected, similar to Halle Berry’s 2013 hit, ‘The Call’.

The introduction of rom-com ‘Book Club’ should, in theory, mean strong competition (and thus a larger fall) for ‘Overboard’, as both seem to cater for a similar market. But, if the last few weeks have taught us anything, its that comedies are not to be messed with. ‘Overboard’ should gross a solid $5.5m in its 3rd weekend, to set it towards reaching $40m domestically next week. Even better news comes from Paramount, as ‘A Quiet Place’ looks to finally overtake ‘Split’s global gross of $278.4m gross soon, with a near-20% drop this weekend. We round off this weekend’s predictions with ‘I Feel Pretty’ and ‘Rampage’ taking 9th and 10th place, with around $2.2m each.

What do you guys think? Will ‘Deadpool 2break its own Box Office records, or will it fall at the final hurdle? Let us know on Twitter or Instagram – we’re at @JUMPCUT_ONLINE.

Rank Last Week’s Rank Film US Gross so far Budget Jumpcut’s prediction Weekend drop Week no. BoxOfficeMojo’s prediction Deadline’s Prediction Variety’s Prediction
1 Deadpool 2 $110m $143m 1 $138m $130m-$150m $130m-$150m
2 1 Avengers: Infinity War $562.9m $300m+ $29.8m -52% 4 $29.2m $32m $30m
3 Book Club $12.5m 1 $12m $9m-$10m $7m-$10m
4 2 Life of the Party $22.3m $30m $10m -44% 2 $9.5m
5 2 Breaking In $21.5m $6m $8m -55% 2 $7.4m
6 Show Dogs $7m 1 $6.3m $4m-$9m
7 3 Overboard $31.7m $12m $5.9m -40% 3 $5.8m
8 5 A Quiet Place $171.7m $17m $5m -23% 7 $4m
9 6 I Feel Pretty $45.1m $32m $2.2m -42% 5
10 7 Rampage $90.8m $120m $2.1m -39% 6 $1.6m

Weekend BO Predictions: ‘Life Of The Party’ & ‘Breaking In’ Welcome Strong Weekend For Newcomers as ‘Infinity War’ Makes It 3 In A Row

Written by Dapo Olowu

Two new wide releases, ‘Life of the Party’ and ‘Breaking In’, enter the frame this weekend, looking comfortable to snatch the podium spots below ‘Infinity War’. Meanwhile, the older releases continue to battle for a top ten finish. What will the newbies make, and how will the other films fare this weekend?

So, what’s opening?

Melissa McCarthy comedies can typically fall into two categories, based on their critical reception. First, you have the well-received, fan-loved ‘Bridesmaids’, ‘Spy’, and ‘The Heat’, with the first two in particular viewed as some of the best comedies released in the past decade. You’re then faced with the second group, one that involves ‘Tammy’, ‘The Boss’, and ‘Identity Thief’ – all of which are under 25% on Rotten Tomatoes. These inconsistencies only stretch as far as reviews, however, as her movies are (almost) always guaranteed money-makers. ‘Tammy’, her lowest opening out of the 6 (and another directed by husband Ben Falcone), brought in a solid $21.6m in its first 3 days back in the summer of 2014, meaning that, apart from ‘St. Vincent’ and ‘This Is 40’, Melissa McCarthy movies consistently hit the $20m opening figure – an underrated Box Office achievement.

With ‘Life of the Party’, Melissa McCarthy goes back to college, and like another University-focused comedy in 2016 (‘Neighbors 2’), we’re seeing this opening with a little over $20m. ‘Neighbors 2’ similarly opened 2 weeks after another MCU behemoth, ‘Civil War’, and was able to offset its audience-limiting R-rating (and direct competition withThe Nice Guys’) by being the sequel to a film that made $150m in the U.S. a couple of years before. ‘Life of the Party’, however, isn’t a sequel, but it only has a PG-13 rating and is at the advantage of opening after competition like ‘Overboard’ and ‘I Feel Pretty’. Adding the fact that Melissa McCarthy is basically immune to bad reviews (apart fromGhostbusters’), I wouldn’t be surprised if we saw an opening of $22m.

We also have ‘Breaking In’ entering cinemas across the States this weekend, and honestly these types of thrillers are both a joy and a curse to predict. It’s the lack of specific-ness surrounding the thriller genre that gets me – will it be another ‘Traffik’, or a ‘Get Out’? The film, starring Gabrielle Union and opening in around 2,600 cinemas, does exactly what it says on the tin, and features Union battling convicts as they try to force their way into her deceased father’s mansion. After looking at a few similar films with female leads (‘Acrimony’, ‘Proud Mary’, ‘Kidnap’, ‘Strangers: Prey at Night’), we saw that they all a) open in around 2,500 cinemas and b) have a per-cinema average opening of between $4,000 and $8,000. So, with this, ‘Breaking In’ should open to between $15m and $16m.

What else is on?

Of course, we can’t forget ‘Infinity War’, which will secure another 1st place finish this weekend with an estimated $58.5m gross. The predicted 49% drop comes from the fact that there’s now no U.S. Thursday preview number from the first weekend to contend with, giving us a smaller figure than the 55.5% we saw last weekend. The big news here, however, is that the film is finally opening in China, and has potential to absolutely demolish the records that stand over there. Its already earned $9.2m from midnight screenings on Thursday – the second biggest figure ever, behind the $9.8m made by ‘Fate of the Furious’ last year; it will even hope to break ‘F8’s record as the biggest Hollywood film in China ever, by pulling in over $392m.

Overboard’s competition from ‘Life of the Party’ almost mirrors ‘How to Be a Latin Lover’s 58% fall in its 2nd weekend last year, after it had to contend with ‘Guardians of the Galaxy 2’ – so a similar drop is in play. Next is ‘A Quiet Place’, which is sitting just behind ‘Infinity War’ and ‘Black Panther’ in the U.S. domestic charts this year, and should thus drop around 30% again this weekend for a total domestic gross nearing $170m. This weekend will also be an impressive one for ‘Rampage’, closing in on the $90m domestic mark with a $2.8m gross. This estimated 40% fall will be similar to its drop last weekend. Luckily, it’s made its money before ‘Deadpool 2’ and ‘Solo’ open in the upcoming weeks.

I Feel Pretty’ has been defying the odds every weekend with impressive drops, but surely, surely, this is the weekend where direct competitor ‘Life of the Party’ gives Amy Schumer’s comedy a run for its money, and leads to a 55% fall from last weekend. With a break-even point between $70m and $90m, there’s fear that ‘I Feel Pretty’ is coming to an ugly Box Office end. The same can’t be said for ‘Black Panther’ which, in the week where it became available for digital download, looks to become the only (alongside 1989s ‘Batman’) superhero film to ever have 13 consecutive weeks in the top 10; it should see a 3-day gross of just over $2m, putting it firmly in 8th place. Finally, we have ‘Tully’ and ‘Truth or Dare’ rounding off the top 10 with $1.9m and $1.2m respectively.

What are your estimates? Where will ‘Life of the Party’ land? How impressed have you been with ‘A Quiet Place’s numbers? Let us know on Twitter – we’re at @JUMPCUT_ONLINE.

Rank Last Week’s Rank Film US Gross so far Budget Jumpcut’s prediction Weekend drop Week no. BoxOfficeMojo’s prediction Deadline’s Prediction Variety’s Prediction
1 1 Avengers: Infinity War $479.1m $300m+ $58.5m -49% 3 $62m $60m-$63m $50m-$60m
2 Life of the Party $30m $22m 1 $21m $18m-$21m $18m-$21m
3 Breaking In $15.6m 1 $18m $14m-$17m $14m-$17m
4 2 Overboard $18.4m $12m $6.5m -56% 2 $9m
5 3 A Quiet Place $162.4m $17m $5.4m -30% 6 $4.8m
6 5 Rampage $86m $120m $2.8m -40% 5 $2.5m
7 4 I Feel Pretty $39.7m $32m $2.3m -55% 4 $2.9m
8 7 Black Panther $694m $200m $2.1m -35% 13 $2.1m
9 6 Tully $4.4m $1.9m -42% 2 $1.8m
10 7 Truth or Dare $38.7m $2.5m $1.2m -37% 5