Weekend BO Results: ‘Solo’ is DOA As ‘Infinity War’ Closes In On $2 Billion

Written by Dapo Olowu

If there was a lesson to be learned from ‘Solo’ bombing at the Box Office this weekend (and trust me, there are lessons), it’s that no franchise or property, however popular, is fully immune to disappointing returns. The late promotion, effects of a polarising ‘The Last Jedi’, mediocre reviews, poor release date, and a story that audiences never really asked for in the first place took its toll on the ‘Star Wars’ franchise – giving solo a 3-day opening of just $84.4m. The poor opening is further cemented by an International gross of just $68.2m; to put this into perspective, even March’s ‘Pacific Rim: Uprising’ opened abroad to $122.4m.

But what do these numbers mean? How can we already tell that ‘Solo’ is a Box Office bomb? Let’s have a look at its budget. We already know it’s the most expensive ‘Star Wars’ film of all time, but with Deadline recently reporting its production cost (before advertising charges, mind you) at well over $300m, ‘Solo’ is officially one of the most expensive films ever, and will thus need around $700m+ to break-even. From this, we can determine that a global opening of just over $150m does not cut it. We’re looking at ‘Solo’ finishing below $500m worldwide, losing well over $200m, making it one of the biggest Box Office flops of all time. It’s incredible. Just 2 and a half years ago, Disney released the biggest domestic film ever, and have now dropped a film in the same franchise that won’t even be the biggest film of the month.

We don’t want to revel in Disney’s failure here, but, there lingers a belief that Disney keeping its December release for ‘Solo’ would’ve at least ensured better Box Office legs, as well as causing potential competition to move their own release dates away. Instead, we have legitimised fears of ‘Star Wars’ fatigue, and serious questions over the future spinoffs (yes, including you Boba Fett) planned for the franchise. This, of course, comes after the $100m-budget ‘A Wrinkle In Time’ brought in just $129m worldwide recently, enough for losses well over $100m. A small consolation? Disney and Lucasfilm now have 1.5 years until ‘Episode 9’ to steer their wayward ship, and ensure profits continue for a potentially troubled franchise.

Solo’ wasn’t the only story of the Memorial Day weekend however, as ‘Deadpool 2’ dropped by 65% to pull in just $43.5m. We warned about the front-loaded sequel curse in our predictions on Friday, but this was a full $10m under our expectations. Still, its 4-day weekend total of $53.8m pushes its domestic grossing up to $218.5m, and globally it sits just a shade under the $500m mark. From a budget of $110m, Marvel are proving that R-rated franchises can also be money-makers if done well.

Next, we have ‘Infinity War’ which really benefited from ‘Solo’s weak performance, dropping by just 41% from last weekend. Now just $86m away from becoming the 4th film to ever reach $2bn, it passed ‘The Avengers’ domestically this weekend to claim 6th spot in the U.S. all-time charts. Although it won’t reach ‘Black Panther’ (which is still struggling to hit the $700m mark), Disney & Marvel studios will likely end the year with 2 of their 2018 releases in the domestic top 5 of all time.

One of the best performances of the weekend, Paramount’s ‘Book Club’, brought in a solid $10.1m in its 2nd week of release. It’s domestic total of $35.3m already gives it an opening weekend multiplier of 2.6x, putting it on track to be the one of the leggiest films of the year. ‘I Can Only Imagine’, the Christian biopic from mid-March, currently leads the pack with a 4.9x multiplier, but by the same point in its Box Office run as ‘Book Club’, it had a 2.2x multiplier. Paramount will be hoping that their rom-com continues this trend, and with the summer finally here, it’s looking likely to do so.

Life of the Party’ and ‘Breaking In’ both exceeded expectations by bringing in $5.4m and $4.3m each – their best drops yet. The Memorial Day weekend boosted this, as the big tentpole release this weekend had no impact on their audiences. Although the $30m budget may prove to be too costly for the Melissa McCarthy comedy (which is currently at $48.5m globally), the Will Packer-produced ‘Breaking In’, starring Gabrielle Union, is potentially looking at breaking-even soon, as it’s made $40m from just a $6m investment.

Show Dogs’ is performing eerily similarly to 2016s ‘Nine Lives’ (both had 2nd weekend % drops in their mid-40s), showing that the kids are pretty consistent with the whole talking-animals-in-a-poorly-reviewed-family-comedy thing (well, that isn’t ‘Alvin & The Chipmunks’). With only $12m in the bank domestically, this can officially be classed a Box Office bomb. That can’t be said for the comedy ‘Overboard’, which only dropped 32% for a $43m domestic haul, even after losing over 600 cinemas. Similarly, ‘A Quiet Place’ lost 800 and is officially coming to the end of its domestic run, pulling in $2.4m. Its worldwide gross of $312.5m has surely exceeded expectations, and from just a $17m budget, it sits alongside ‘Black Panther’ and ‘Solo’ as 2018s biggest Box Office shock. Finally, ‘RBG’ (still in limited release) grossed $1.3m for the 10th and final spot.

There we have it. ‘Solo’ bombs, ‘Infinity War’ continues its ascent, and ‘Book Club’ begins to really impress. What will happen next week, when 3 new releases enter the picture? Let us know your thoughts on Twitter and Instagram – we’re at @JUMPCUT_ONLINE.

 

Rank Last Week Rank Film Total U.S. Gross Weekend Gross

(4-day weekend)

Weekend drop

(4-day weekend)

Jumpcut’s prediction

(4-day weekend)

Difference (4-day weekend) Week number
1 Solo: A Star Wars Story $103m $84.4m

($103m)

$85m

($103.7m)

$0.6m

($0.7m)

1
2 1 Deadpool 2 $218.5m $43.5m

($53.8m)

-65.4%

(-57.1%)

$53m $9.5m 2
3 2 Avengers: Infinity War $627.6m $17.3m

(22.4m)

-41.3%

(-23.8%)

$14.7m $2.6m 5
4 3 Book Club $35.3m $10.1m

($13.1m)

-25.8%

(-3.4%)

$9m $1.1m 2
5 4 Life of the Party $40.9m $5.4m

($6.9m)

-29.3%

(-9.6%)

$3.8m $1.6m 3
6 5 Breaking In $37.1m $4.3m

($5.5m)

-37.2%

(-19.4%)

$2.7m $1.6m 3
7 6 Show Dogs $11.9m $3.3m

($4.3m)

-45.8%

(-28.1%)

$2.8m $0.5m 2
8 7 Overboard $42.6m $3.1m

($4.1m)

-32.3%

(-10.5%)

$2.4m $0.7m 4
9 8 A Quiet Place $180.8m $2.4m

($3.1m)

-38.3%

(-20.6%)

$2.6m $0.2m 8
10 12 RBG $6.2m $1.3m

($1.7m)

+2.8%

(+37.8%)

$1m $0.3m 4

 

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Weekend BO Predictions: Han And The Gang Ride Solo This Weekend As The Lone Release Aims For The Top Spot

 

Written by Dapo Olowu

The blockbusters just keep coming. Following the Marvel double of ‘Infinity War’ and ‘Deadpool’ gracing our screens in recent weeks, it’s Lucasfilm’s turn to provide the masses with film fodder, as ‘Solo: A Star Wars Story’ looks to break a Memorial Day opening weekend record and maintain the ‘Star Wars’ brand as Box Office dynamite. Meanwhile, ‘Deadpool 2’ looks to gain ground on its predecessor, and ‘Infinity War’ edges closer to $1.9bn globally – but will this holiday weekend grant their wishes?

So, what’s opening this weekend?

Much has been made of the production of ‘Solo’ – the rumours alone could provide quite a compelling behind-the-scenes documentary (get on it, Disney). If the story wasn’t the strange late promotional push for the film (we got its first trailer during February’s SuperBowl), it was about the on-set troubles, resulting in a directorial change and around 80% of the film reshot. The media, fans, and the general public had every right to ask questions; the reshoots alone almost doubled the budget, giving the film a rumoured cost of $250m – the most expensive ‘Star Wars’ film of all time. Ron Howard’s efforts led the film, based on beloved smuggler Han Solo, to an okay 69% on Rotten Tomatoes, placing it between ‘Revenge of the Sith’ and ‘Attack of the Clones’ as the 8th best (or 4th worst) received in the franchise.

The release date wasn’t seen to be a great idea, either.

Moving the release from its now-expected December slot (which this year, by the way, is full of competition like ‘Aquaman’ andMary Poppins Returns’) to May meant that its battling ‘Deadpool 2’s second weekend, as well as ‘Infinity War’, currently the 4th biggest film ever. This, remember, comes just 5 months after the release of ‘The Last Jedi’, one of the most polarising blockbusters in history; a film that left as many ‘Star Wars’ fans jumping for joy as it left others enraged. Coupled with the fact that Disney’s recent Memorial Day weekend history (‘Tomorrowland’, ‘Pirates of the Caribbean 5’, ‘Alice Through the Looking Glass’) have all flopped to varying degrees, it’s very likely that this’ll be the lowest Star Wars opening of the Disney era. ‘Solo’ probably won’t even reach the $1bn mark – a milestone every ‘Star Wars’ film (adjusted for inflation) has achieved – especially with China’s growing dislike of the films.

The 4-day weekend does provide a platform for the film to attract a summer crowd and boost those opening numbers, but there’s a sense of dread with this film that I haven’t felt for a movie in a franchise since ‘Justice League’ opened to a lowly $93.8m in November. The 4-day weekend record of $139.8m set by ‘Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End’, way back in 2007, is out of the question, with ‘Solo’ looking to miss the $100m mark in its first 3 days. A bit of maths would tell you that historically, this weekend’s extra day gives around a 20-22% bump from the 3-day total. So, if our estimates are correct, and we’re looking at ‘Solo’ opening close to ‘Days of Future Past’, a 3-day total of $85m for the first 3 days, and thus around $103.7m for its 4-day weekend. Make no mistake about it. This is bad news.

What else is showing?

After failing to break its own R-rated opening weekend record in the States last weekend, ‘Deadpool 2’ now has to contend with ‘Solo’ potentially attracting chunks of its audience, as well as the dreaded front-loaded sequel effect, where the second weekend drop increases from the previous film, due to the stronger fanbase clambering to see the film in its first week. Although holiday will help it regain some ground on ‘Deadpool’, I can see ‘Deadpool 2’ dropping close to 60% this weekend, for a total close to $53m. Another major film to potentially suffer at the hands of ‘Star Wars’ is ‘Infinity War’, which will be enjoying its 5th weekend of release in 3rd place. A 50% drop is on the cards but that won’t matter too much as $1.9bn will be reached in the next few days. After that, ‘Infinity War’ will be closing in on hitting $2bn and may even snatch 3rd place on the all-time list away from ‘The Force Awakens’.

The counter-programming angle has worked well for Paramount this year thus far, with ‘Book Club’ catering to a crowd not historically all-too-fond of spaceships, foul-mouthed anti-heroes, and giant purple monsters with gold gauntlets. From this, we expect a strong hold in its 2nd weekend, similar to ‘My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2’s -37% drop, for a total of around $9m. With that, it’ll reach $30m domestic, with releases in mainland Europe next week to come. Comedy ‘Life of the Party’ should fair slightly better this weekend than last with $3.8m, a 50% fall from last week’s poor showing.

Next is ‘Show Dogs’, which opened very similarly last weekend to another recent anthropomorphic flop ‘Nine Lives’. If that panned flick was anything to go by, ‘Show Dogs’ will be bringing in a paltry $2.8m in its second weekend. This will be closely followed by ‘Breaking In’, which looks to have another 60%-ish fall ($2.7m), and ‘A Quiet Place’, which still has a firm grip on the top ten with a $2.6m gross. With a $300m global take (enough for 9th place worldwide), the film’s also the 5th biggest horror in American history.

Finally, ‘Overboard’ will start to seriously haemorrhage screens to make way for the blockbusters, but will gross a respectable $2.4m, and ‘RBG’ should arise from the ashes to claim 10th spot with around $1m.

What do you think? Will ‘Solo’ get the record? Do you fancy ‘Infinity War’ to beat ‘The Force Awakens’? Let us know on Twitter and Instagram – we’re at @JUMPCUT_ONLINE.

 

Rank Last Week’s Rank Film US Gross so far Budget Jumpcut’s prediction Weekend drop Week no. BoxOfficeMojo’s prediction Deadline’s Prediction Variety’s Prediction
1 Solo: A Star Wars Story $250m $85m

($103.7m 4-day)

1 $108m ($134.2m 4-day) $135m-$170m (4-day) $130m-$150m (4-day)
2 1 Deadpool 2 $158m $110m $53m -58% 2 $53.5m $56m $50m-$60m
3 2 Infinity War $603.3m $300m $14.7m -50% 5 $17.5m
4 3 Book Club $20.3m $10m $9m -34% 2 $10m
5 4 Life of the Party $33.4m $30m $3.8m -50% 3 $4.2m
6 6 Show Dogs $7.3m $5.5m $2.8m -53% 2 $4.4m
7 5 Breaking In $31.1m $6m $2.7m -60% 3 $3.2m
8 8 A Quiet Place $177.4m $17m $2.6m -34% 8 $2.3m
9 7 Overboard $38.2m $12m $2.4m -48% 4 $2.1m
10 12 RBG $4.4m $1m -20% 4 $1.1m

 

Weekend BO Results: Three Weekends In, And ‘Infinity War’ Becomes The Fifth Biggest Film Of All Time On Mother’s Day Weekend In The U.S.

Written by Dapo Olowu

Dread it, run from it, but the 5th spot will still arrive. That’s right, ‘Avengers: Infinity War’ has fought off competition to become not only the biggest Marvel movie of all time, but the 5th biggest film ever worldwide, with a current figure of $1.61bn. The gross, under $70m away from 4th spot (2015s ‘Jurassic World’), was bolstered by a combination of this weekend’s $62.1m domestic taking and a massive $200m opening in China (the second biggest opening over there, after ‘Fate of the Furious’ last year and exchange rate changes). This is all, remember, after just 3 weekends in release, making it the quickest film to ever reach $1.5bn (after also reaching $1bn in record time).  

Domestically, ‘Infinity War’ sits in 8th place, behind ‘The Last Jedi’ and ahead of ‘The Dark Knight’, on $547.8m. This weekend in the U.S. saw it (again) top the charts with a total of $62.1m – just a 46% drop from last weekend’s gross. An interesting insight into this number; only 3 weekends in and its already below ‘Black Panther’s 3rd weekend of $66.3m, a trend that’ll only continue as ‘Black Panther’s domestic over-performance begins to become truly clear. Still, with at least another $100m in the bank from the U.S. (and another $100m from China) to go, ‘Infinity War’ has a chance of nearing ‘Black Panther’s domestic total, and of course that coveted $2bn target.

In possibly the biggest disappointment of the weekend, Melissa McCarthy’s ‘Life of the Party’ opened to only $17.9m – her worst opening since ‘St. Vincent’ made $7.8m in its limited-to-wide release in 2015, and since ‘This is 40’ made $11.6m in its purely wide releasing opening weekend in 2012. The question now, is whether this marks a declining trend in Melissa McCarthy’s comedies, or if this was in fact just a poor release time. Mother’s Day aside, with ‘I Feel Pretty’ and ‘Overboard’ potentially filling the comedy void for many in the last few weekends, a poorly-rated Melissa McCarthy comedy perhaps wasn’t going to break the bank like expected. The hope now is that ‘Life of the Party’ is still breathing in coming weeks, and we should be optimistic, seeing how well the other comedies have held their ground.

With a per-cinema average just shy of $7,000, ‘Breaking In’ really smashed through our expectations, with a gross just $300k short of second place’s ‘Life of the Party’. This was Gabrielle Union’s biggest opening weekend since 2014’s ‘Think Like a Man Too’, which topped the charts with $29.2m. The $6m thriller also received an average B on CinemaScore. Universal will hope this doesn’t affect the film’s staying power in the coming weeks, especially with how skewed the audiences are (68% female & 73% over 25 years old), but with nearly $20m already in the bank, it shouldn’t take long for this film to break-even.

Next is ‘Overboard’, with an impressive 33% drop from last weekend. The film made 42% of its weekend gross on Sunday alone – an indication into just how much of a boost Mother’s Day was for the romantic comedy. Then, we have ‘A Quiet Place’ with (yet again) the top ten’s best drop, with only a 17% difference between this weekend’s and last weekend’s gross. Now virtually at $170m domestically, it stands as Paramount’s biggest film stateside since ‘Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation’ in 2015, and with at least $10m left in the tank, we’re crossing our fingers for Paramount to finally have their overdue resurgence.

Although the expected Mother’s Day boost for ‘I Feel Pretty’ didn’t materialise, the $3.8m grossed this weekend lands the film with a respectable domestic total of $44m (and a worldwide number at $53.9m) –  solid numbers once you forget the $32m production costs. While it struggles to minimises its losses, ‘Rampage’ can potentially see profits (albeit small) after this weekend’s 25% drop meant that it brought in another $3.5m. With the worldwide number at $398.2m (just $2m off its reported break-even figure), it seems as if The Rock can do no wrong in the Box Office (just don’t mentionBaywatch’).

Tully’ brought in $2.25m for 8th place, just above ‘Black Panther’ which is clawing for the $700m domestic figure. Its current total of $696.3m will surely hit the 700-club in the upcoming weeks, although its DVD & Blu-ray release on today may seriously scupper this. Still, with 13 consecutive weeks in the top 10, 1989’s ‘Batman’ is the only other superhero movie to match the achievement – a brilliant way to conclude ‘Black Panther’s Box Office run, as it inevitably leaves the top 10 next week. Rounding off the list, is a surprise with limited release ‘RBG’, a documentary about Supreme Court Justice, Ruth Bader Ginsburg, holding off ‘A Wrinkle in Time’s wide re-release for 10th spot.

Join us in a few days as we predict the upcoming weekend’s Box Office results. With ‘Show Dogs’, ‘Book Club’, and of course ‘Deadpool 2’ entering the fray, what will happen to ‘Infinity War’ and co? Let us know your thoughts on Twitter and Instagram – we’re at @JUMPCUT_ONLINE.

Rank Last Week Rank Film Weekend Gross Total U.S. Gross Weekend drop Jumpcut’s prediction Difference Week number
1 1 Avengers: Infinity War $62.1m $548.1m -45.9% $58.5m $3.6m 3
2 Life of the Party $17.9m $17.9m $22m $4.1m 1
3 Breaking In $17.6m $17.6m $15.6m $2m 1
4 2 Overboard $9.9m $29.4m -32.9% $6.5m $3.4m 2
5 3 A Quiet Place $6.5m $169.6m -16.8% $5.4m $1.1m 6
6 4 I Feel Pretty $3.8m $44m -24.7% $2.3m $1.5m 4
7 5 Rampage $3.5m $89.8m -25.3% $2.8m $0.7m 5
8 6 Tully $2.2m $7m -31.5% $1.9m $0.3m 2
9 7 Black Panther $2.1m $696.3m -36.2% $2.1m $0m 13
10 15 RBG $1.2m $2m +105.9% 2