‘Aquaman’ And Co. To Feast On Big Christmas Leftovers, Leaving ‘Vice’ And ‘Holmes & Watson’ With Crumbs: Box Office Predictions

Written by Dapo Olowu

The post-Christmas Box Office weekend is usually a lucrative one, creating entire meals out of the festive midweek scraps. This time last year saw films out of the top 10 actually increase their weekend earnings after the previous one, including ‘Jumanji’, ‘The Greatest Showman’, and ‘Ferdinand’.

It’s no different this year, as many of last weekend’s inclusions look to beat their efforts of seven days ago. Competition comes in the form of debutants ‘Vice’ and ‘Holmes and Watson’, which both opened on Christmas Day.

The latter is studio Annapurna’s latest offering, a biographical comedy/drama starring Christian Bale as American politician, businessman, and former Vice pPresident of the United States, Dick Cheney. It’s McKay’s second venture into the niche genre, as well as his second partnership with Christian Bale – both films being 2015s ‘The Big Short’.

It’s ‘The Big Short’ that we’ll be using as a basis for our predictions. Both came out in the Christmas period, and although ‘The Big Short’ had a platform release (i.e. limited to wide opening), it didn’t stop a solid $2.3m on its opening Wednesday in 1,585 screens, on its way to a $10.5m weekend.

Signs point to ‘Vice’ at least doubling this opening, considering it made $4.8m on Tuesday, and enters cinemas wide immediately. It’ll definitely need to, at least for Annapurna’s sake; the studio sank a whopping $60m into this political drama before marketing costs too.

However, considering the difference in critical reception (‘The Big Short’s 88% on RT vs. ‘Vice’s 65%) and audience feedback (A- vs. C+ on Cinemascore), we’re not hedging our bets on ‘Vice’ beating ‘The Big Short’ by much this weekend, with an $11m gross being likely.

Will Ferrell and John C. Reilly lead together for the 3rd time in this weekend’s other new release, ‘Holmes and Watson’, but unlike ‘Step Brothers’ and ‘Talladega Nights’, Sony’s latest comedy is one of the most critically-reviled movies of in recent memory, pulling in a dreadful 6% on Rotten Tomatoes, and a D+ on Cinemascore.

The film sees Ferrell and Reilly play Sherlock Holmes and Dr. John Watson, the detective duo created by the late Sir Arthur Conan Doyle. They’re joined by Rebecca Hall, Ralph Fiennes, Rob Brydon, and Pam Ferris, and at $42m, it’s one of the more expensive comedies of the year.

This only makes things worse for those at Sony, who are now pinning hopes on a big opening weekend to offset the inevitable poor word of mouth, and thus short Box Office run, to follow. It made a strong $6.4m on Christmas day, but won’t be able to solve the mystery of how to break-even however, as it looks to earn a disappointing $9m from Friday to Sunday.

Last weekend’s winner ‘Aquaman’ comes into the weekend fresh from a massive Christmas feast, as it earned $22.1m on Tuesday for the 6th biggest X-Mas day grosser ever, behind ‘The Force Awakens’, ‘The Last Jedi’, ‘Rogue One’, ‘Sherlock Holmes’, and ‘Avatar’. Jason Momoa and co stand tall at a domestic total of $122.6m currently and $600m worldwide, and should add another $55m this weekend for good measure.

Finally, ‘Mary Poppins Returns’ and ‘Bumblebee’ continue to battle for the 2nd and 3rd spots, and will earn an estimated $29m and $24m each in their pursuits of Box Office runs to match last year’s musical ‘The Greatest Showman’, and adventure-comedy ‘Jumanji’.

‘Aquaman’ looks to reign supreme again, while ‘Bumblebee’ and ‘Mary Poppins Returns’ remain untroubled by the new entrants of the week. Can ‘Aquaman’ be the first of the DCEU to hit the $1bn mark? Let us know your thoughts on Twitter and Instagram – we’re at @JUMPCUT_ONLINE.

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‘Aquaman’ Is King With $67m As Christmas Delivers A Mixed Bag Of Presents: Box Office Report

Written by Dapo Olowu

Father Christmas was in a giving mood in the penultimate Box Office weekend of the year, gifting our seven new releases a combined gross of $125.7m between Friday and Sunday.

Half went to ‘Aquaman’, the film which sees Warner Bros swim further into the shores of the DCEU. Its first 3 days earned them $67.4m – by far the lowest in the franchise so far, but simultaneously the 9th biggest December opening of all time.

It’s a start both unspectacular but impressive; while ‘Aquaman’ may have been expected to open bigger without the looming figure of a ‘Star Wars’ movie in December (it’s the first time since 2014 that we haven’t had one at Christmas), the DCEU suffered a near-fatal blow last year with critical and commercial flop ‘Justice League’. Audiences, it seems, were being cautious.

Those who took the risk liked what they saw from the James Wan blockbuster. It’s A- on Cinemascore is only bettered by ‘Wonder Woman’ in the DCEU, whose 4x opening weekend multiplier (achievable over the winter break) would land ‘Aquaman’ with a commanding $270m domestic total. Coupled with an ever-impressive overseas total – which is currently on $410.7m after a $91.3m weekend – and its okay start this weekend will be long forgotten in the next few weeks.

It was a closer-than-expected affair between Disney’s ‘Mary Poppins Returns’ ($23.5m) and Paramount’s ‘Bumblebee’ ($21.6m), as both remained rooted in ‘Aquaman’s shadow. Both studios will be a little disappointed by the performances thus far, as heavy competition from ‘Aquaman’, and a slew of family-friendly releases (‘The Nutcracker’, for one) caused either one or the other to deliver under forecasts.

All isn’t lost, however. Nothing stops both films from really breaking out in the upcoming weeks and months and having special Box Office performances to wipe away any doubts, especially as both benefit from an A- on Cinemascore – a mark of strong praise.

Last Christmas saw ‘Jumanji’ open to just $36.2m, only to end on a whopping $404.5m, and ‘The Greatest Showman’ start at a poor $8.8m on its way to earning $174.3m. Even ‘Pitch Perfect 3’ opened to $19.9m, only to finish on $104.9m, meaning the festive period and beyond provides perfect fodder for highly-rated movies with low-ish openings.  Only ‘Vice’ and ‘Holmes and Watson’ provide any real competition until ‘Glass’ on January 18th, so both films can look to stretch their legs in the coming weeks.

Internationally, ‘Bumblebee’ will be pleased to have earned $31.1m from 38 markets (not including China) for a $52.7m opening, while ‘Mary Poppins Returns’ made $20.3m from 17 countries, including $9.4m from the U.K.

The less said about both ‘Second Act’ and ‘Welcome to Marwen’ the better. The former, fronted by Jennifer Lopez and produced by STX, floundered at the Box Office, earning $6.5m off of a $16m budget. Perhaps a case of a poor release date, the film will now struggle to claw back its budget in coming weeks. Still, it’s nothing compared to ‘Welcome to Marwen’, who somehow did worse than our pessimistic expectations of $4.3m with just $2.4m for 9th place.

Finally, it was a close-call between ‘Mary Queen of Scots’ and ‘The Favourite’ for 10th spot. Both award-hopeful royalty-focused period-dramas were practically tied coming into Sunday night, with ‘Mary’ just edging the fight with $2.3m, versus ‘The Favourite’s $2.1m.

The Christmas competition didn’t disappoint, and the big day itself sees ‘Vice’ and ‘Holmes and Watson’ enter wide to add more fun to the mix. How will the two fair against the competition? Let us know your thoughts on Twitter and Instagram – we’re at @JUMPCUT_ONLINE.

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 *includes gross from Amazon previews

**includes gross from Wednesday onwards

 

 

‘Aquaman’ To Be Crowned Christmas King While ‘Poppins’ Swoops In With $35m On A Weekend Of Eight Releases: Box Office Predictions

Written by Dapo Olowu

It’s Christmas time, and the Box Office bells aren’t so much jingling than crashing in with a deafening roar as a record eight new wide releases sound in the weekend.

We start with Disney’s ‘Mary Poppins Returns’, the big-budget sequel to Robert Stevenson’s 1964 classic. Over half a century after ‘Mary Poppins’ wowed the world, Disney faces the joint task of appealing to the original fans while introducing a new generation of youngsters to the magic of P. L. Travers’ creation.

The mega-studio seem to be appealing to all so far, with the film earning a solid 77% on the Tomatometer, alongside an A- on Cinemascore. ‘Mary Poppins Returns$4.8m Wednesday opening may insignificant next to its hulking $130m budget, but we mustn’t forget how ‘The Greatest Showman’s entire opening weekend of just $8.8m preceded a whopping $174.3m total this time last year. A leggy run is possible, especially for a well-received family musical released at Christmas.

Let’s make this clear, however: Rob Marshall’s ‘Mary Poppins Returns’ is no ‘Greatest Showman’. It’s Friday to Sunday opening, for one, is more likely to finish in the $35m region than below $10m (similar to ‘A Wrinkle in Time’), and won’t have the extraordinary 20x opening weekend multiplier that ‘Greatest Showman’ had.

Still, the film, which sees Poppins (Emily Blunt) return to the Banks’ (Ben Whishaw, Emily Mortimer) after 30 years, will hope that Mary’s counter-programming magic will see it defeat Paramount’s ‘Bumblebee’ for second place this weekend, behind James Wan’s ‘Aquaman’.

Both ‘Aquaman’ and ‘Bumblebee’ enter U.S. cinemas looking to become the catalysts for their respective franchise’s revivals. Both come from properties struggling in recent years, where their latest releases barely made over $600m from $200m+ budgets. While the DCEU still has a breath of fresh air in ‘Wonder Woman’, the name ‘Transformers’ became Box Office poison after last summer’s ‘The Last Knight’ grossed half a billion less than its 2014 predecessor.

Aquaman’s position is much less precarious than ‘Bumblebee’s. After last year’s ‘Justice League’ earned a disappointing $657.9m worldwide off a $300m budget, ‘Aquaman’ has seemingly bounced the DCEU back from the brink, already grossing $332m outside the U.S. in a matter of weeks, including a Warner Bros best $209.5m from China. The film has set its sights seriously on becoming the first DC movie since ‘The Dark Knight Rises’ to hit $1bn.

Bumblebee’, on the other hand, has had to completely reboot the franchise and even remove all mention of ‘Transformers’ from its name, an indication of Paramount’s intention to start anew.

It isn’t just the name that’s different. For the first time, a ‘Transformers’ film is critically adored (not that that’s ever affected its Box Office takings), with ‘Bumblebee’ boasting a franchise-best 94% on the Tomatometer. Similarly, ‘Aquaman’ is getting the plaudits with 64% (and an audience score of 86%) – only behind ‘Wonder Woman’ in the DCEU’s best reviews films. The film is a continuation of the events in ‘Justice League’, and sees Jason Momoa as the title character, who must fight his half-brother on behalf of the surface world.

While it’s clear that ‘Aquaman’ will top the Box Office with ease this weekend, with around $83m from Friday to Sunday (just over ‘Venom’s $80m from October), forecasting ‘Bumblebee’s performance remains a bit of a mystery. It doesn’t benefit from the counter-programming of a Disney musical like ‘Mary Poppins Returns’, but instead appeals to a very similar demographic to ‘Aquaman’, as both aim to please those looking for big-budget spectacle over the holidays.

Bumblebee’ sees Hailee Steinfeld as Charlie, who befriends and must protect the aforementioned Autobot Transformer against agent Jack Burns (John Cena) of Sector 7, a government agency that investigates aliens on earth.

Its interesting premise won’t necessarily translate into high Box Office takings in its first weekend with just $26m, but Paramount can bank on the film to restore some faith in the failing franchise in coming weeks to potentially push the film into profitability. Remember, if ‘Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle’ could finish on $404.5m after opening to $36.2m, there’s hope for ‘Bumblebee’ yet.

Jennifer Lopez-fronted rom-com ‘Second Act’ looks to finish STX Films’ torrid time at the Box Office this year on a high note with a $10m opening, similar to that of ‘Love Simon’ ($11.8m) and ‘Aloha’ ($9.7m). Benefiting from half the budget of STX’s biggest domestic grosser of the year ‘I Feel Pretty’, ‘Second Act’ should find little trouble in at least breaking even by the time its theatrical run is done.

A flop was always expected with such a high number of new releases, and in this case, it falls to the ‘Downsizing’ of 2018, ‘Welcome to Marwen’, starring Steve Carrell and directed by Robert Zemeckis. Made on inflated $39m budget, we’re forecasting this to open below last Christmas’ ‘Downsizing’ ($5m), at around $4.3m.

Finally, period dramas ‘The Favourite’ and ‘Mary Queen of Scots’ hit 800 cinemas each in their wide releases, but won’t trouble the top ten, earning around $2m each. War documentary ‘They Shall Not Grow Old’ opened on a special one-day release on Monday to $2.3m, and will be re-released on the December 27th.

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