Weekend BO Report: Impressive Weekend Drops Mark The End Of The Biggest Box Office Month In History!

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Written by Dapo Olowu

June 2018 saw the biggest month (and the end of the biggest quarter) in U.S. Box Office history, with the $1.268bn earned from cinema-goers beating the $1.236bn made in June 2013. This, of course, was boosted by a stunning opening from ‘Incredibles 2’ and strong showing by ‘Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom’ — both of which topped the charts this weekend with further impressive runs.

It was ‘Jurassic World 2’ that predictably stomped into first place, earning $60.9m from 4,485 cinemas (in-line with our $60m estimates on Friday) for a $265.7m domestic gross. Internationally, it was a similar story, with J. A. Bayona’s flick coming in at number one for the 4th week in a row, again grossing around $60m. Its international total stands at a mighty $669m with China its biggest non-U.S. market (the $237m made there is already more than the first ‘Jurassic World’ earned in its entire Chinese run). Worldwide, ‘Jurassic World 2’ is now sitting on a comfy $934.9m and will look to be the third film of the year to break the billion-dollar-barrier by the end of the week.

Incredibles 2’ took in $46.4m domestically, leaving it just $600k short of ‘Shrek 2’ as the 2nd biggest animated film in U.S. history. Of course, it will have passed the 2004 sequel by the time you’re reading this, and will overtake ‘Finding Dory’ as the biggest ever by next week, as it draws nearer to making $700m globally. It’s a figure that crime-thriller, ‘Sicario: Day of the Soldado’ can only dream of reaching, but its $19m opening was a shot above even the most optimistic predictions — to place it 3rd on the U.S. Box Office charts this weekend. Not even a reduced score on Rotten Tomatoes (now at 62%) could stop this from becoming Sony’s second biggest opening of the year, behind ‘Peter Rabbit’s $25m in February. Now, all ‘Sicario 2’ needs to better its predecessor’s domestic total is a 2.47x multiplier, which would be an achievable goal if its critical reception (like its bang-average B on Cinemascore) wasn’t so mixed.

The $15.2m made in the first 3 days of sports comedy, ‘Uncle Drew’s release marks director Charles Stone III’s best ever opening, and also means a solid start for the film that cost less than $20m to produce. The release of ‘Ant-Man and the Wasp’ next weekend provides some unwelcome competition, but ‘Uncle Drew’ will hope to use its 67% on RT and A on Cinemascore to hold its own against the MCU tentpole. ‘Ocean’s 8’ sneaked over the $200m global figure this weekend after dropping just 28% from last weekend, earning $8.3m in the U.S. Similarly, ‘Tag’ dropped by only 29% to gross $5.9m. It’s currently at a $41.1m domestic total, and lies just $2m short of $50m worldwide.

Now into its seventh weekend, ‘Deadpool 2’ grossed $3.6m to reach $310.5m domestically, trailing ‘Deadpool’ by $52m. Surprisingly, Bollywood film ‘Sanju’ grossed $2.7m from just 356 cinemas, giving it the 3rd best per-cinema average of the weekend, with $7,650. The biographical flick is based around Indian film veteran Sanjay Dutt, who has starred in over 180 movies. Finally, ‘Solo’ and ‘Won’t You Be My Neighbor?’ round off the top ten with $2.7m and $2.4m alike.

With Ant-Man 2 entering cinemas next week, which of these do you think will be hit the hardest? Let us know your thoughts on Instagram and Twitter – we’re at @JUMPCUT_ONLINE.

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Weekend BO Predictions: ‘Uncle Drew’ And ‘Sicario 2’ Go To War In Tightly Contested Weekend

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Written by Dapo Olowu

There’s going to be a battle for third place in the U.S. Box Office this weekend as sports comedy ‘Uncle Drew’ looks to play ball against ‘Sicario 2’, the eagerly awaited sequel to Denis Villeneuve’s 2015 crime thriller ‘Sicario’. Both will take a backseat to J. A. Bayona’s ‘Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom’ however, with the dinosaur epic looking to endure a more frustrating run than its 2015 predecessor. A drop close to 60% would still earn ‘Jurassic World 2’, the 3rd biggest film of the year so far, a pretty monstrous $60m, but it’s a far-cry from the $106.6m that Trevorrow’s ‘Jurassic World’ made just 3 years ago.

Incredibles 2’, on the other hand, is rapidly closing in on ‘The Incredibles’ worldwide total of $633m, as it looks to break through the $600m barrier by the end of the weekend. Domestically, a $45.8m gross this weekend would see it keep second place and near a $450m total, enough to become the second biggest animated film of all time in the U.S.

Stefano Sollima’s ‘Sicario 2’ can only wish for a similar performance – the first only opened to $12.1m in wide release, for a $46.9m domestic total off of a $30m budget. Director Denis Villeneuve doesn’t return this time around, alongside household name Emily Blunt, and Oscar-nominee Daniel Kaluuya. It does though see the return of Josh Brolin and Benicio del Toro, alongside acclaimed writer Taylor Sheridan of ‘Wind River’ and ‘Hell or High Water’ fame. An opening close to $20m would be a solid start, but critical reception pales in comparison to ‘Sicario’, with the sequel holding a decent 72% on the Tomatometer, compared to the first’s 93%. A gross just over $16m should therefore be on the cards.

Following closely is ‘Uncle Drew’, starring NBA superstar Kyrie Irving in the titular role. The comedy, based on his character from Pepsi Max adverts, also stars ‘Get Out’ actor Lil Rel Howery, as well as Nick Kroll, Shaquille O’Neal, and Tiffany Haddish. The presence of Haddish automatically draws comparisons between the film and last year’s breakout comedy ‘Girls Trip’, which opened to huge $31.2m, and finished on $115.2m domestically. However, ‘Uncle Drew’ doesn’t have the critical acclaim (50% on RT vs. 90%), nor the specific charm that ‘Girls Trip’ offered. A closer comparison would be to 2016s ‘Barbershop: The Next Cut’s $20.2m opening, meaning ‘Uncle Drew’ should be close to ‘Sicario 2’ this weekend by earning around $16m.

Also keeping its place in the top ten is ‘Ocean’s 8’ which looks to close in on ‘Ocean’s Thirteen’s domestic total with a $7.5m gross this weekend. Comedy ‘Tag’ may endure a bit of audience competition from the two new entries, and should earn just under $5m to continue a pretty poor year for comedies. ‘Deadpool 2’ sets to continue its trend of 40% weekend drops by pulling in $3.2m, while ‘Solo’ in theory should bounce back after being hit hard by ‘Jurassic World’ 7 days ago, for a gross of $2.7m. Finally, we round the weekend out with ‘Won’t You Be My Neighbor?’ and ‘Hereditary’; the former looks to perform similarly to documentary ‘RBG’ earlier this year to earn $1.9m from its limited release, while the latter will pull in close to $1.8m.

Who do you think will win the battle for third place between ‘Sicario 2’ and ‘Uncle Drew’? Let us know your thoughts on Twitter and Instagram – we’re at @JUMPCUT_ONLINE.

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Weekend BO Report: A Blistering June Weekend Sees ‘Fallen Kingdom’ In A World Of Its Own

Written by Dapo Olowu

On the biggest June Box Office weekend in domestic history, it was ‘Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom’ that snatched first place with a remarkable $148m 3-day haul. Early tracking, like with ‘Jurassic World’ in 2015, saw a much more conservative $130m figure being touted by industry analysts, as well as yours truly. But, it’s becoming increasingly clear that the franchise relies heavily on on-the-day walk-ups – pre-orders and heavy anticipation just isn’t the audience preference here. This means that the duo of films, led by Chris Pratt and Bryce Dallas Howard, have become Universal’s first and second highest openings of all time (with the former pulling in a then-record $208.8m), showing that audiences in the U.S. still have a mighty appetite for the Dinosaur franchise. The same can be said for International viewers, as ‘Fallen Kingdom’ now boasts a mighty $715m global gross and is looking at finishing in the region of $1.2bn worldwide.

Flying in for a second place finish this weekend is ‘Incredibles 2’, Pixar’s record-breaking sequel. Unfortunately, it cut our dreams of a $100m 1-2 in the Box Office short, bringing in a smaller but still solid, $80.3m. The interesting bit here is the similarities in its weekend drop to both ‘Infinity War’ and ‘Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2’, whose 55.5% falls almost mirror ‘Incredibles 2’s 56%, indicating that the Brad Bird-directed hit may end up performing more like an archetypal superhero movie than a family-oriented Pixar animation. A box office run like ‘Infinity War’ would earn ‘Incredibles 2’ a domestic finish of $475m, while a run like ‘GotG2’ leaves the film at $485.9m. Disney and Pixar will be optimistic for a stronger performance, though, as the summer period should see it beat ‘Finding Dory’s record of $486.3m. Internationally, ‘Incredibles 2’ fared especially well in China, earning a Pixar-record $21.2m in the region.

A gross of $11.5m leaves Sandra Bullock’s ‘Ocean’s 8’ on a domestic total of $100.3m, and a worldwide gross of $171.6m – a fantastic return after just 3 weeks. As the film closes in on $200m, and critical reaction stands to be mostly positive, a possible sequel is looking more and more likely. True-story comedy ‘Tag’ has managed to take in $8.3m to bring its domestic total up to $30.4m – on-track with last month’s Melissa McCarthy comedy ‘Life of the Party’. The former will hope to better the $52.1m domestic total that the latter ended up on, as ‘Tag’s inflated $28m production cost requires a leggier Box Office run.

Deadpool 2’ triumphed over ‘Solo’ this weekend, earning $5.3m compared to the latter’s $4.5m, moving past ‘It’ as the 3rd biggest R-rated global hit (behind ‘The Matrix Reloaded’ and ‘Deadpool’). ‘Solo’ was hit a little hard by ‘Fallen Kingdom’, dropping 55% from last week’s gross. On the other hand, ‘Hereditary’ held steady after losing 1,000 cinemas, earning $3.6m  and leaving it just $2m short of $50m globally. The A24 film will be confident at landing somewhere close to $60m worldwide; a fantastic return for the studio with a patchy Box Office record to date.

Sony action film, ‘Superfly’, dropped by 50% from last weekend to gross $3.4m – a figure similar to Tyrese Gibson thriller, ‘Waist Deep’, from 2006, which also saw a $3.4m second weekend. While the latter’s $21.3m domestic total looks reachable for ‘Superfly’, it’ll be a disappointing run for the film that cost $16m. Finally, ‘Infinity War’ earned $2.6m in its final weekend in the top 10, while limited-release documentary ‘Won’t You Be My Neighbour’ brought in $1.8m for 10th spot.

As worldwide audiences can’t seem to get enough of the ‘Jurassic’ franchise, where do you the current film ending up? Will it break into the top ten biggest of all time? Let us know your thoughts – we’re on Instagram and Twitter at @JUMPCUT_ONLINE.

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Weekend BO Predictions: On A Potentially Record-Breaking Weekend, Will ‘Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom’ Open With A Roar?

Written by Dapo Olowu

It’s sequel season in the Box Office sphere, with ‘Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom’ following in the footsteps of ‘Ocean’s 8’ and record-breaking ‘Incredibles 2’ in its attempt to top the charts this weekend, in a live-action record 4,475 cinemas. The follow-up to Colin Trevorrow’s 2015 continuation of the ‘Jurassic Park’ franchise (which surprisingly broke the then-opening weekend record with $208.8m) looks to follow in the footsteps of last week’s ‘Incredibles 2’ and provide mass appeal. The problem is, Pixar sequel completely smashed expectations and performed brilliantly across the four main audience quadrants, providing men, women, alongside over and under-25s alike worth quality viewing. This then led to an animated record-breaking $187.2m opening for the film, practically ensuring it’s future Box Office profits. ‘Jurassic World 2’, on the other hand, has a 53% rotten rating on the Tomatometer, and is the sequel not many Americans seemingly asked for, much like ‘Solo’ some weeks ago.

Fears of this being another ‘Solo’ are quite extreme however; ‘Jurassic World 2’ has already made $450m in International markets without the film even reaching U.S. cinemas, and crossed over the $100m mark in China in its first 3 days. It aims to see a drop akin to ‘The Last Jedi’, which fell 13% from ‘The Force Awakens’ for a $220m opening. The same for ‘Jurassic World 2’ would give it a massive $181.7m domestic start, but without such a dedicated fanbase as ‘Star Wars’, even the most optimistic of analysts would roll their eyes at such a prediction. Therefore, I’m looking at ‘Rogue One’, which dropped by 37% from ‘The Force Awakens’. A similar fall from ‘Jurassic World’ would leave its sequel opening to $131m, and taking into account ‘Incredibles 2’s performance, we’re thinking ‘Jurassic World 2’ will hit $125m in its first 3 days. Fun fact: this is to be only the second time ever that a $100m opener has immediately followed another $100m opener in the next week, after ‘Pirates of the Caribbean 3’ followed ‘Shrek 3’ in 2007.

Looking to take advantage of ‘Jurassic World’s disappointing opening is ‘Incredibles 2’, which aims to make history by being the first film to ever make $100m or more in the same weekend as another. No two films have ever simultaneously achieved the feat on the same weekend; the closest this ever came was in 2015, when in a curious case of reverse fortune, Disney favourite ‘Inside Out’ opened to $90.4m during ‘Jurassic World’s second weekend (where it itself grossed $106.6m). ‘Incredibles 2’ would have to drop by 45.3% to reach $100m, and that’s where we’re hoping it reaches.

Next, is ‘Ocean’s 8’, and this continues to emulate ‘Ghostbusters’ with around a $10m 3rd weekend. Comedy ‘Tag’ would love to mirror ‘Game Night’s second weekend performance with a 38.8% drop, but will probably perform closer to ‘Neighbors 2’ and fall somewhere in the 50% region. A gross of $7.5m will be enough for fourth place, ahead of ‘Solo’, who will finally pass the $200m domestic total this weekend, for a gross of $6m, in-line with the performance of ‘Days of Future Past’. Closely trailing is ‘Deadpool 2’ with $5.6m, now reaching $700m worldwide and $300m domestically.

A24 horror ‘Hereditary’ continues its impressive run, and looks to earn $4.3m in the U.S. this weekend, leaving the film just $19m away from being A24’s biggest domestic hit, and close to making $50m globally. ‘Infinity War’ should come 8th with a gross of $3.8m, and finally ‘Superfly’ and ‘Adrift’ round off the top ten with $3.2m and $1.1m each.

Will ‘Jurassic World 2’ and ‘Incredibles 2’ make Box Office history, or will the latter fall just short of the $100m target? Let us know your thoughts on Instagram and Twitter – we’re at @JUMPCUT_ONLINE.

 

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Weekend BO Report: ‘Incredibles 2’ Destroys Animated Opening Record On A Memorable Father’s Day For Disney

Written by Dapo Olowu

It’s Disney’s world, and we’re all just living in it. After securing the two biggest openings of the year so far in ‘Black Panther’ and ‘Infinity War’ (the latter being the biggest domestic and global opening of all time), the studio strengthened their position as a Box Office powerhouse by breaking its own animated opening record, with ‘Incredibles 2’ making $182.7m in the first 3 days of its release. The gross, almost $50m more than ‘Finding Dory’s $135.1m in 2016, eclipsed the entire 3-day opening of ‘The Incredibles’ in just 24 hours — including, in total, a record-breaking $18.5m from Thursday previews. The $53.1m brought in from overseas gives ‘Incredibles 2’ a worldwide opening of $233.8m; a blistering start for the sequel that cost a reported $200m to make.

Looking ahead, it’s hard to see this film not going after ‘Finding Dory’s final record of being the biggest animated film of all time in the States. The $486.3m grossed by the ‘Finding Nemo’ sequel would only require ‘Incredibles 2’ to have an opening week multiplier of 2.7x to better it, and when considering that no film with an A+ Cinemascore has ever had a multiplier under 3x, ‘Incredibles 2’ looks to become the first animated film to make $500m in the U.S.

In second place is ‘Ocean’s 8’, bringing in $19m for a $78.6m domestic total. Its 54% drop mirrors that of ‘Ghostbusters’ and franchise predecessor ‘Ocean’s Twelve’, increasing the likelihood that its final U.S. gross will land in the $120m+ region. It’s currently on $115.4m globally and will need to pull in another $70m or so if it wants to start raking in a profit. Next is new release, ‘Tag’, that matched our expectations by grossing $14.9m in its opening weekend. The R-rated comedy was a surprising hit with the ladies; with 51% of viewers being female, it will hope to use the even audience demographics to its advantage, and continue to attract a wider-than-expected audience in the upcoming weeks.

Star Wars origin story, ‘Solo’, held strong against ‘Incredibles 2’, bringing in a solid $10m and leaving the film just $6m away from the $200m domestic mark (and $9m away from $350m globally). ‘Deadpool 2’ is looking at doubling that worldwide figure, and is well on the way to doing so, after this weekend saw it earning $8.7m for 5th place. It’s just $5m away from the $300m domestic mark and $10m away from earning $700m worldwide. Those over at Fox will be hopeful it passes ‘Days of Future Past’s total of $747.9m to become the second biggest ‘X-Men’ film of all time.

New release ‘Superfly’ and A24 horror ‘Hereditary’ battled it out for 6th spot, with $6.9m each. The former grossed around $15k more, but with just $9m domestically so far, off a $16m budget, it’s nothing to write home about. ‘Hereditary’, on the other hand, has already out-grossed ‘Winchester’ in just its 2nd weekend to become the third biggest horror of the year, and is already the A24’s third biggest domestic hit ever after dropping by only 50% this weekend — making a $27m domestic total.

Infinity War’ sticks with the trend of continuously smaller weekend drops, and fell by only 25% from last weekend. Its $5.4m means it’s passed ‘Titanic’ to become the 4th biggest film in the U.S. of all time, with $664.3m. Although it’s likely to remain in 4th domestically, it aims to finish 3rd globally, as it’s just $50m away from passing ‘The Force Awakens’ $2.07bn worldwide total. Finally, ‘Adrift’ and ‘Book Club’ both lost over 1,000 cinemas each, and thus saw falls close to 60%, grossing $2.2m and $1.8m respectively. While it seems as if studio STX is cutting their losses with ‘Adrift’, as it struggles to even gross back its $35m budget, Paramount can rest easy knowing that it’s costs are repaid (and then some) with ‘Book Club’ closing in on a $70m worldwide gross.

Next weekend sees ‘Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom’ enter American cinemas, and after already grossing close to $400m in International markets, how will ‘Incredibles 2’ and the rest cope? Let us know your thoughts on Twitter and Instagram – we’re at @JUMPCUT_ONLINE.

 

Rank Last Week Rank Film Total U.S. Gross Weekend Gross Weekend drop JUMPCUT’s prediction Difference Week number
1 Incredibles 2 $182.7m $182.7m $150m $32.7m 1
2 1 Ocean’s 8 $78.6m $19m -54.4% $20.8m $1.8m 2
3 Tag $14.9m $14.9m $15m $0.1m 1
4 2 Solo $193.8m $10m -36.5% $6.3m $3.7m 4
5 3 Deadpool 2 $294.6m $8.7m -38.6% $7.5m $1.2m 5
6 Superfly $9m $6.9m $4.5m $2.4m 1
7 4 Hereditary $27m $6.9m -49.5% $6.4m $0.5m 2
8 5 Avengers: Infinity War $664.3m $5.4m -24.8% $4m $1.4m 8
9 6 Adrift $26.9m $2.2m -58.3% $2.6m $0.2m 3
10 7 Book Club $62m $1.8m -57.4% $2.8m $1m 5

 

 

 

Weekend BO Predictions: ‘Incredibles 2’ Hints At A Record-Breaking Opening Worth the 14 Year Wait

Written by Dapo Olowu

What’s new?

It’s taken well over a decade for Brad Bird and Pixar to release a sequel to the 2004 sensation ‘The Incredibles’, and ‘Incredibles 2’ looks to blast the animated opening weekend record to shreds. The current record of $135.1m was set by ‘Finding Dory’ in 2016, another Disney sequel that built upon the anticipation following one of the most popular animated films of all time. The edge that ‘Incredibles 2’ has over ‘Finding Dory’, however, is that a) it’s following a film that had always hinted toward a sequel, and b) it’s a superhero film in an age where caped crusaders regularly top the Box Office charts. From this, we believe ‘Incredibles 2’ will make around $150m in its first 3 days.

Making a sequel 14 years later does pose problems; retirement caused Jonathan Banks to replace Bud Luckey as the voice of Rick Dicker, while young Dash’s voice artist, Spencer Fox, is now too old to play a child. The World Cup kicking off on the same weekend also brings strong competition for viewers. However, a 95% on Rotten Tomatoes (and the fact that the USA didn’t even qualify) hints that the only thing that’s truly changed from its predecessor, was dropping ‘The’ from the title.

In a potential triumph in counter-programming, star-studded comedy, ‘Tag’, opens in over 3,300 cinemas in the U.S. this weekend — and hopes to use the unique premise to its advantage. It stars (amongst many others) Jeremy Renner, Jon Hamm, Hannibal Burress, and Annabelle Wallis, and is a completely different type of offering to the family-friendly (and millennial darling) ‘Incredibles 2’. First time director Jeff Tomsic helms this $28m production, which aims to emulate ‘Central Intelligence’s opening (on the same weekend as record-breakingFinding Dory’) and make around $35m. No chance here though, as its R-rating puts it in the camp of this year’s ‘Game Night’, and a bunch of others in the mid-teens region. Therefore, an opening of around $15m is likely, and it’ll look to hone in on a male, over-25 audience in the coming weeks — one that won’t have too much competition until ‘Sicario 2’ at the end of June.

Finally, there’s action crime film ‘Superfly’, which actually opened on Wednesday to avoid a complete collapse against ‘Incredibles 2’. Unfortunately, the plan backfired as it only brought in around $1.2m from its opening day. The remake of the 1972 Blaxploitation film, ‘Super Fly’, stars Jason Mitchell, Rick Ross, and Michael K. Williams, and is produced by rapper, Future. What it will inevitably lack in Box Office numbers (not helped by a 53% on Rotten Tomatoes), it’ll at least make up for in catchy songs (the soundtrack features everybody from Future to Miguel), and a stylistic look, as Director X (known for many famous music videos) takes charge. We’re not expecting this to really take off, and will only see around $4.5m from Friday to Sunday.

What else is on?

Ocean’s 8’ looks to cement second place with around $20.8m, a 50% drop from last weekend. Its daily changes almost mirror that of ‘Ghostbusters’, which saw a 54% fall in its second weekend. Superhero flick, ‘Deadpool 2’ looks to close in on the $300m domestic mark and, although it won’t hit it this week, a $7.5m gross will aid its pursuit. ‘Incredibles 2’ won’t affect it too much, but it will see a massive impact on ‘Solo’, which could have a large chunk of its audience lost to the animated blockbuster. A gross around $6.3m is similar to what we believe ‘Hereditary’ will land in its second weekend, showing that audiences weren’t as put off as its Cinemascore suggests. Although horrors are quite a front-loaded genre, ‘Hereditary’ should take advantage of a summer that promises a leggy run.

Next is ‘Infinity War’, which recently became the first ever comic book movie to make $2bn worldwide. Its run in recent weekends has been particularly impressive and will continue in the face of superhero competition, with a $4m gross. Finally, we have ‘Book Club’ with an estimated $2.8m, and ‘Adrift’, which barely remains afloat on $2.6m.

Is ‘Incredibles 2going to break the animated opening record, or will it fall just short of ‘Finding Dory’? Let us know your thoughts on Twitter and Instagram – we’re at @JUMPCUT_ONLINE.

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Weekend BO Predictions: ‘Oceans 8’ To Steal Top Spot From ‘Solo’, Which May Not Even Finish Second

 

Written by Dapo Olowu

What’s new?

Ocean’s 8’ hit the screens of over 4,000 U.S. cinemas on Friday, 11 years to the day since the last of the original trilogy opened to moviegoers. The gender-swapped crime caper joins a prestigious family of films boasting over $1bn worldwide, and with the average opening weekend gross being $38m, ‘Ocean’s 8’ looks to become the first to open above the $40m mark. Similarly, 2016s ‘Ghostbusters’, which famously swapped out an all-male cast for women, got off to a $46m start, but ultimately failed to get going at the Box Office with just $229.1m from a $144m budget. ‘Ocean’s 8’s more stream-lined $70m production cost means that a similar opening (and gross) would be solid return and has the added benefit of not being plagued with pre and post-release negativity. Regardless it’ll fall just short of the target, with an opening closer to around $41m.

Indie studio A24 release original horror ‘Hereditary’ this weekend, and its 94% on Rotten Tomatoes suggests they’ve yet again struck critical gold. However, it’s when attempting to reach the same heights commercially that A24 seem to falter, with their biggest domestic hit so far being last year’s Oscar-nominated ‘Lady Bird’, with only $49m. ‘Hereditary’ wants to buck the trend, and although it contains a cast not as star-studded as ‘Lady Bird’, it does include rising star Alex Wolff (‘My Friend Dahmer’, ‘Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle’) and Golden Globe winner Toni Collette. Another plus is its release size; ‘Hereditary’ looks to scare in a record number of theatres for A24 with a shade under 3,000, and from this should break A24’s opening weekend gross record of $8.8m, made by ‘The Witch’ in February 2016. Using that horror’s per-cinema average (and then some) gives ‘Hereditary’ a strong 3-day total of $13m, for the third biggest horror opening of the year, behind ‘A Quiet Place’ and ‘Insidious: The Last Key’.

Finally, we have ‘Hotel Artemis’ which, like the other new releases, also boasts an A-List cast, with Jodie Foster, Sterling K. Brown, Sofia Boutella, Jeff Goldblum, and Dave Bautista just some of the names gracing the film. Unlike the other new releases however, ‘Hotel Artemis’ is the only one housing a rotten rating on the Tomatometer (currently 57%), and its these middling reviews that’ll inevitably hurt its Box Office run in the midst of heavy blockbuster and audience competition. It’s a real shame, as ‘Hotel Artemis’ perhaps should’ve opened on a weekend where most of its audience wouldn’t be drawn to watching ‘Hereditary’, and when behemoths ‘The Incredibles 2’ and ‘Jurassic World 2’ wouldn’t open within days of its release. From all of this, it’s clear that ‘Hotel Artemis’, with dreams of opening with numbers similar to ‘John Wick’ and ‘Atomic Blonde’s grosses, will unfortunately flop like ‘Sin City: A Dame to Kill For’, which opened to $6.3m in August 2014. Using a similar per-cinema average gives ‘Hotel Artemis’ an underwhelming start of around $5m.

What else is on?

This weekend sees ‘Solo’ close in on the $300m global mark, with a third domestic weekend total of $13.8m enough for it to drop to only second place. ‘Jurassic World’s recent international release means ‘Solo’ will drop like a stone outside the U.S., meaning its final gross most likely won’t even see $350m. Comparing this with ‘Deadpool 2’ makes for even sorrier reading, as a $12.8m gross this weekend will leave the merc with the mouth just $20m short of reaching that same $300m mark domestically. Currently the 2018s 3rd biggest film both in the U.S. and globally, I wouldn’t bet against ‘Deadpool 2’ doubling ‘Solo’s final gross.

The weekend drops for ‘Infinity War’ have lessened every weekend and this trend is set to continue. We’re predicting a gross of $6.8m, enough for the film to leapfrog ‘Jurassic World’ into 5th spot on the all-time domestic list, with $655m. ‘Adrift’ will follow closely behind, dropping by around 50% for a $6m gross. The hope here is that ‘Ocean’s 8’ doesn’t eat into its audience members, which also goes for the evergreen ‘Book Club’, that will continue its great run by only dropping 35% for a $4.7m total. BH Tilt’s horror ‘Upgrade’ won’t avoid its studio’s front-loaded trend and, coupled with ‘Hereditary’ being a director competitor, will see a pretty big drop to gross $2m, the same amount as our number 10, ‘Life of the Party’.

What do you think? Will ‘Ocean’s 8’ sink or swim this weekend? Will ‘Deadpool 2’ beat ‘Solo’? Let us know your thoughts and opinions – we’re on Twitter and Instagram at @JUMPCUT_ONLINE.

 

Rank Last Week’s Rank Film US Gross so far Budget Jumpcut’s prediction Weekend drop Week no. BoxOfficeMojo’s prediction Deadline’s Prediction Variety’s Prediction
1 Ocean’s 8 $70m $41m 1 $45m $40m $33m-$40m
2 1 Solo: A Star Wars Story $161m $300m+ $13.8m -53% 3 $14.5m $13m $11m-$15m
3 Hereditary $10m $13m 1 $12m $5m-$9m $5m-$9m
4 2 Deadpool 2 $265m $110m $12.8m -45% 4 $13m
5 4 Avengers: Infinity War $647.9m $300m $6.8m -35% 7 $6m
6 3 Adrift $16.7m $35m $6m -48% 2 $7.3m
7 Hotel Artemis $5m 1 $5m $5m-$9m $5m-$9m
8 5 Book Club $52.7m $10m $4.7m -33% 4 $4.6m
9 6 Upgrade $7m $3m-$5m $2m -57% 2 $2.5m
10 7 Life of the Party $48.2m $30m $2m -43% 5 $1.9m

 

Weekend BO Results: ‘Solo’ is DOA As ‘Infinity War’ Closes In On $2 Billion

Written by Dapo Olowu

If there was a lesson to be learned from ‘Solo’ bombing at the Box Office this weekend (and trust me, there are lessons), it’s that no franchise or property, however popular, is fully immune to disappointing returns. The late promotion, effects of a polarising ‘The Last Jedi’, mediocre reviews, poor release date, and a story that audiences never really asked for in the first place took its toll on the ‘Star Wars’ franchise – giving solo a 3-day opening of just $84.4m. The poor opening is further cemented by an International gross of just $68.2m; to put this into perspective, even March’s ‘Pacific Rim: Uprising’ opened abroad to $122.4m.

But what do these numbers mean? How can we already tell that ‘Solo’ is a Box Office bomb? Let’s have a look at its budget. We already know it’s the most expensive ‘Star Wars’ film of all time, but with Deadline recently reporting its production cost (before advertising charges, mind you) at well over $300m, ‘Solo’ is officially one of the most expensive films ever, and will thus need around $700m+ to break-even. From this, we can determine that a global opening of just over $150m does not cut it. We’re looking at ‘Solo’ finishing below $500m worldwide, losing well over $200m, making it one of the biggest Box Office flops of all time. It’s incredible. Just 2 and a half years ago, Disney released the biggest domestic film ever, and have now dropped a film in the same franchise that won’t even be the biggest film of the month.

We don’t want to revel in Disney’s failure here, but, there lingers a belief that Disney keeping its December release for ‘Solo’ would’ve at least ensured better Box Office legs, as well as causing potential competition to move their own release dates away. Instead, we have legitimised fears of ‘Star Wars’ fatigue, and serious questions over the future spinoffs (yes, including you Boba Fett) planned for the franchise. This, of course, comes after the $100m-budget ‘A Wrinkle In Time’ brought in just $129m worldwide recently, enough for losses well over $100m. A small consolation? Disney and Lucasfilm now have 1.5 years until ‘Episode 9’ to steer their wayward ship, and ensure profits continue for a potentially troubled franchise.

Solo’ wasn’t the only story of the Memorial Day weekend however, as ‘Deadpool 2’ dropped by 65% to pull in just $43.5m. We warned about the front-loaded sequel curse in our predictions on Friday, but this was a full $10m under our expectations. Still, its 4-day weekend total of $53.8m pushes its domestic grossing up to $218.5m, and globally it sits just a shade under the $500m mark. From a budget of $110m, Marvel are proving that R-rated franchises can also be money-makers if done well.

Next, we have ‘Infinity War’ which really benefited from ‘Solo’s weak performance, dropping by just 41% from last weekend. Now just $86m away from becoming the 4th film to ever reach $2bn, it passed ‘The Avengers’ domestically this weekend to claim 6th spot in the U.S. all-time charts. Although it won’t reach ‘Black Panther’ (which is still struggling to hit the $700m mark), Disney & Marvel studios will likely end the year with 2 of their 2018 releases in the domestic top 5 of all time.

One of the best performances of the weekend, Paramount’s ‘Book Club’, brought in a solid $10.1m in its 2nd week of release. It’s domestic total of $35.3m already gives it an opening weekend multiplier of 2.6x, putting it on track to be the one of the leggiest films of the year. ‘I Can Only Imagine’, the Christian biopic from mid-March, currently leads the pack with a 4.9x multiplier, but by the same point in its Box Office run as ‘Book Club’, it had a 2.2x multiplier. Paramount will be hoping that their rom-com continues this trend, and with the summer finally here, it’s looking likely to do so.

Life of the Party’ and ‘Breaking In’ both exceeded expectations by bringing in $5.4m and $4.3m each – their best drops yet. The Memorial Day weekend boosted this, as the big tentpole release this weekend had no impact on their audiences. Although the $30m budget may prove to be too costly for the Melissa McCarthy comedy (which is currently at $48.5m globally), the Will Packer-produced ‘Breaking In’, starring Gabrielle Union, is potentially looking at breaking-even soon, as it’s made $40m from just a $6m investment.

Show Dogs’ is performing eerily similarly to 2016s ‘Nine Lives’ (both had 2nd weekend % drops in their mid-40s), showing that the kids are pretty consistent with the whole talking-animals-in-a-poorly-reviewed-family-comedy thing (well, that isn’t ‘Alvin & The Chipmunks’). With only $12m in the bank domestically, this can officially be classed a Box Office bomb. That can’t be said for the comedy ‘Overboard’, which only dropped 32% for a $43m domestic haul, even after losing over 600 cinemas. Similarly, ‘A Quiet Place’ lost 800 and is officially coming to the end of its domestic run, pulling in $2.4m. Its worldwide gross of $312.5m has surely exceeded expectations, and from just a $17m budget, it sits alongside ‘Black Panther’ and ‘Solo’ as 2018s biggest Box Office shock. Finally, ‘RBG’ (still in limited release) grossed $1.3m for the 10th and final spot.

There we have it. ‘Solo’ bombs, ‘Infinity War’ continues its ascent, and ‘Book Club’ begins to really impress. What will happen next week, when 3 new releases enter the picture? Let us know your thoughts on Twitter and Instagram – we’re at @JUMPCUT_ONLINE.

 

Rank Last Week Rank Film Total U.S. Gross Weekend Gross

(4-day weekend)

Weekend drop

(4-day weekend)

Jumpcut’s prediction

(4-day weekend)

Difference (4-day weekend) Week number
1 Solo: A Star Wars Story $103m $84.4m

($103m)

$85m

($103.7m)

$0.6m

($0.7m)

1
2 1 Deadpool 2 $218.5m $43.5m

($53.8m)

-65.4%

(-57.1%)

$53m $9.5m 2
3 2 Avengers: Infinity War $627.6m $17.3m

(22.4m)

-41.3%

(-23.8%)

$14.7m $2.6m 5
4 3 Book Club $35.3m $10.1m

($13.1m)

-25.8%

(-3.4%)

$9m $1.1m 2
5 4 Life of the Party $40.9m $5.4m

($6.9m)

-29.3%

(-9.6%)

$3.8m $1.6m 3
6 5 Breaking In $37.1m $4.3m

($5.5m)

-37.2%

(-19.4%)

$2.7m $1.6m 3
7 6 Show Dogs $11.9m $3.3m

($4.3m)

-45.8%

(-28.1%)

$2.8m $0.5m 2
8 7 Overboard $42.6m $3.1m

($4.1m)

-32.3%

(-10.5%)

$2.4m $0.7m 4
9 8 A Quiet Place $180.8m $2.4m

($3.1m)

-38.3%

(-20.6%)

$2.6m $0.2m 8
10 12 RBG $6.2m $1.3m

($1.7m)

+2.8%

(+37.8%)

$1m $0.3m 4

 

Weekend BO Predictions: Han And The Gang Ride Solo This Weekend As The Lone Release Aims For The Top Spot

 

Written by Dapo Olowu

The blockbusters just keep coming. Following the Marvel double of ‘Infinity War’ and ‘Deadpool’ gracing our screens in recent weeks, it’s Lucasfilm’s turn to provide the masses with film fodder, as ‘Solo: A Star Wars Story’ looks to break a Memorial Day opening weekend record and maintain the ‘Star Wars’ brand as Box Office dynamite. Meanwhile, ‘Deadpool 2’ looks to gain ground on its predecessor, and ‘Infinity War’ edges closer to $1.9bn globally – but will this holiday weekend grant their wishes?

So, what’s opening this weekend?

Much has been made of the production of ‘Solo’ – the rumours alone could provide quite a compelling behind-the-scenes documentary (get on it, Disney). If the story wasn’t the strange late promotional push for the film (we got its first trailer during February’s SuperBowl), it was about the on-set troubles, resulting in a directorial change and around 80% of the film reshot. The media, fans, and the general public had every right to ask questions; the reshoots alone almost doubled the budget, giving the film a rumoured cost of $250m – the most expensive ‘Star Wars’ film of all time. Ron Howard’s efforts led the film, based on beloved smuggler Han Solo, to an okay 69% on Rotten Tomatoes, placing it between ‘Revenge of the Sith’ and ‘Attack of the Clones’ as the 8th best (or 4th worst) received in the franchise.

The release date wasn’t seen to be a great idea, either.

Moving the release from its now-expected December slot (which this year, by the way, is full of competition like ‘Aquaman’ andMary Poppins Returns’) to May meant that its battling ‘Deadpool 2’s second weekend, as well as ‘Infinity War’, currently the 4th biggest film ever. This, remember, comes just 5 months after the release of ‘The Last Jedi’, one of the most polarising blockbusters in history; a film that left as many ‘Star Wars’ fans jumping for joy as it left others enraged. Coupled with the fact that Disney’s recent Memorial Day weekend history (‘Tomorrowland’, ‘Pirates of the Caribbean 5’, ‘Alice Through the Looking Glass’) have all flopped to varying degrees, it’s very likely that this’ll be the lowest Star Wars opening of the Disney era. ‘Solo’ probably won’t even reach the $1bn mark – a milestone every ‘Star Wars’ film (adjusted for inflation) has achieved – especially with China’s growing dislike of the films.

The 4-day weekend does provide a platform for the film to attract a summer crowd and boost those opening numbers, but there’s a sense of dread with this film that I haven’t felt for a movie in a franchise since ‘Justice League’ opened to a lowly $93.8m in November. The 4-day weekend record of $139.8m set by ‘Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End’, way back in 2007, is out of the question, with ‘Solo’ looking to miss the $100m mark in its first 3 days. A bit of maths would tell you that historically, this weekend’s extra day gives around a 20-22% bump from the 3-day total. So, if our estimates are correct, and we’re looking at ‘Solo’ opening close to ‘Days of Future Past’, a 3-day total of $85m for the first 3 days, and thus around $103.7m for its 4-day weekend. Make no mistake about it. This is bad news.

What else is showing?

After failing to break its own R-rated opening weekend record in the States last weekend, ‘Deadpool 2’ now has to contend with ‘Solo’ potentially attracting chunks of its audience, as well as the dreaded front-loaded sequel effect, where the second weekend drop increases from the previous film, due to the stronger fanbase clambering to see the film in its first week. Although holiday will help it regain some ground on ‘Deadpool’, I can see ‘Deadpool 2’ dropping close to 60% this weekend, for a total close to $53m. Another major film to potentially suffer at the hands of ‘Star Wars’ is ‘Infinity War’, which will be enjoying its 5th weekend of release in 3rd place. A 50% drop is on the cards but that won’t matter too much as $1.9bn will be reached in the next few days. After that, ‘Infinity War’ will be closing in on hitting $2bn and may even snatch 3rd place on the all-time list away from ‘The Force Awakens’.

The counter-programming angle has worked well for Paramount this year thus far, with ‘Book Club’ catering to a crowd not historically all-too-fond of spaceships, foul-mouthed anti-heroes, and giant purple monsters with gold gauntlets. From this, we expect a strong hold in its 2nd weekend, similar to ‘My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2’s -37% drop, for a total of around $9m. With that, it’ll reach $30m domestic, with releases in mainland Europe next week to come. Comedy ‘Life of the Party’ should fair slightly better this weekend than last with $3.8m, a 50% fall from last week’s poor showing.

Next is ‘Show Dogs’, which opened very similarly last weekend to another recent anthropomorphic flop ‘Nine Lives’. If that panned flick was anything to go by, ‘Show Dogs’ will be bringing in a paltry $2.8m in its second weekend. This will be closely followed by ‘Breaking In’, which looks to have another 60%-ish fall ($2.7m), and ‘A Quiet Place’, which still has a firm grip on the top ten with a $2.6m gross. With a $300m global take (enough for 9th place worldwide), the film’s also the 5th biggest horror in American history.

Finally, ‘Overboard’ will start to seriously haemorrhage screens to make way for the blockbusters, but will gross a respectable $2.4m, and ‘RBG’ should arise from the ashes to claim 10th spot with around $1m.

What do you think? Will ‘Solo’ get the record? Do you fancy ‘Infinity War’ to beat ‘The Force Awakens’? Let us know on Twitter and Instagram – we’re at @JUMPCUT_ONLINE.

 

Rank Last Week’s Rank Film US Gross so far Budget Jumpcut’s prediction Weekend drop Week no. BoxOfficeMojo’s prediction Deadline’s Prediction Variety’s Prediction
1 Solo: A Star Wars Story $250m $85m

($103.7m 4-day)

1 $108m ($134.2m 4-day) $135m-$170m (4-day) $130m-$150m (4-day)
2 1 Deadpool 2 $158m $110m $53m -58% 2 $53.5m $56m $50m-$60m
3 2 Infinity War $603.3m $300m $14.7m -50% 5 $17.5m
4 3 Book Club $20.3m $10m $9m -34% 2 $10m
5 4 Life of the Party $33.4m $30m $3.8m -50% 3 $4.2m
6 6 Show Dogs $7.3m $5.5m $2.8m -53% 2 $4.4m
7 5 Breaking In $31.1m $6m $2.7m -60% 3 $3.2m
8 8 A Quiet Place $177.4m $17m $2.6m -34% 8 $2.3m
9 7 Overboard $38.2m $12m $2.4m -48% 4 $2.1m
10 12 RBG $4.4m $1m -20% 4 $1.1m