Weekend BO Predictions: On A Potentially Record-Breaking Weekend, Will ‘Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom’ Open With A Roar?

Written by Dapo Olowu

It’s sequel season in the Box Office sphere, with ‘Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom’ following in the footsteps of ‘Ocean’s 8’ and record-breaking ‘Incredibles 2’ in its attempt to top the charts this weekend, in a live-action record 4,475 cinemas. The follow-up to Colin Trevorrow’s 2015 continuation of the ‘Jurassic Park’ franchise (which surprisingly broke the then-opening weekend record with $208.8m) looks to follow in the footsteps of last week’s ‘Incredibles 2’ and provide mass appeal. The problem is, Pixar sequel completely smashed expectations and performed brilliantly across the four main audience quadrants, providing men, women, alongside over and under-25s alike worth quality viewing. This then led to an animated record-breaking $187.2m opening for the film, practically ensuring it’s future Box Office profits. ‘Jurassic World 2’, on the other hand, has a 53% rotten rating on the Tomatometer, and is the sequel not many Americans seemingly asked for, much like ‘Solo’ some weeks ago.

Fears of this being another ‘Solo’ are quite extreme however; ‘Jurassic World 2’ has already made $450m in International markets without the film even reaching U.S. cinemas, and crossed over the $100m mark in China in its first 3 days. It aims to see a drop akin to ‘The Last Jedi’, which fell 13% from ‘The Force Awakens’ for a $220m opening. The same for ‘Jurassic World 2’ would give it a massive $181.7m domestic start, but without such a dedicated fanbase as ‘Star Wars’, even the most optimistic of analysts would roll their eyes at such a prediction. Therefore, I’m looking at ‘Rogue One’, which dropped by 37% from ‘The Force Awakens’. A similar fall from ‘Jurassic World’ would leave its sequel opening to $131m, and taking into account ‘Incredibles 2’s performance, we’re thinking ‘Jurassic World 2’ will hit $125m in its first 3 days. Fun fact: this is to be only the second time ever that a $100m opener has immediately followed another $100m opener in the next week, after ‘Pirates of the Caribbean 3’ followed ‘Shrek 3’ in 2007.

Looking to take advantage of ‘Jurassic World’s disappointing opening is ‘Incredibles 2’, which aims to make history by being the first film to ever make $100m or more in the same weekend as another. No two films have ever simultaneously achieved the feat on the same weekend; the closest this ever came was in 2015, when in a curious case of reverse fortune, Disney favourite ‘Inside Out’ opened to $90.4m during ‘Jurassic World’s second weekend (where it itself grossed $106.6m). ‘Incredibles 2’ would have to drop by 45.3% to reach $100m, and that’s where we’re hoping it reaches.

Next, is ‘Ocean’s 8’, and this continues to emulate ‘Ghostbusters’ with around a $10m 3rd weekend. Comedy ‘Tag’ would love to mirror ‘Game Night’s second weekend performance with a 38.8% drop, but will probably perform closer to ‘Neighbors 2’ and fall somewhere in the 50% region. A gross of $7.5m will be enough for fourth place, ahead of ‘Solo’, who will finally pass the $200m domestic total this weekend, for a gross of $6m, in-line with the performance of ‘Days of Future Past’. Closely trailing is ‘Deadpool 2’ with $5.6m, now reaching $700m worldwide and $300m domestically.

A24 horror ‘Hereditary’ continues its impressive run, and looks to earn $4.3m in the U.S. this weekend, leaving the film just $19m away from being A24’s biggest domestic hit, and close to making $50m globally. ‘Infinity War’ should come 8th with a gross of $3.8m, and finally ‘Superfly’ and ‘Adrift’ round off the top ten with $3.2m and $1.1m each.

Will ‘Jurassic World 2’ and ‘Incredibles 2’ make Box Office history, or will the latter fall just short of the $100m target? Let us know your thoughts on Instagram and Twitter – we’re at @JUMPCUT_ONLINE.

 

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Weekend BO Predictions: ‘Incredibles 2’ Hints At A Record-Breaking Opening Worth the 14 Year Wait

Written by Dapo Olowu

What’s new?

It’s taken well over a decade for Brad Bird and Pixar to release a sequel to the 2004 sensation ‘The Incredibles’, and ‘Incredibles 2’ looks to blast the animated opening weekend record to shreds. The current record of $135.1m was set by ‘Finding Dory’ in 2016, another Disney sequel that built upon the anticipation following one of the most popular animated films of all time. The edge that ‘Incredibles 2’ has over ‘Finding Dory’, however, is that a) it’s following a film that had always hinted toward a sequel, and b) it’s a superhero film in an age where caped crusaders regularly top the Box Office charts. From this, we believe ‘Incredibles 2’ will make around $150m in its first 3 days.

Making a sequel 14 years later does pose problems; retirement caused Jonathan Banks to replace Bud Luckey as the voice of Rick Dicker, while young Dash’s voice artist, Spencer Fox, is now too old to play a child. The World Cup kicking off on the same weekend also brings strong competition for viewers. However, a 95% on Rotten Tomatoes (and the fact that the USA didn’t even qualify) hints that the only thing that’s truly changed from its predecessor, was dropping ‘The’ from the title.

In a potential triumph in counter-programming, star-studded comedy, ‘Tag’, opens in over 3,300 cinemas in the U.S. this weekend — and hopes to use the unique premise to its advantage. It stars (amongst many others) Jeremy Renner, Jon Hamm, Hannibal Burress, and Annabelle Wallis, and is a completely different type of offering to the family-friendly (and millennial darling) ‘Incredibles 2’. First time director Jeff Tomsic helms this $28m production, which aims to emulate ‘Central Intelligence’s opening (on the same weekend as record-breakingFinding Dory’) and make around $35m. No chance here though, as its R-rating puts it in the camp of this year’s ‘Game Night’, and a bunch of others in the mid-teens region. Therefore, an opening of around $15m is likely, and it’ll look to hone in on a male, over-25 audience in the coming weeks — one that won’t have too much competition until ‘Sicario 2’ at the end of June.

Finally, there’s action crime film ‘Superfly’, which actually opened on Wednesday to avoid a complete collapse against ‘Incredibles 2’. Unfortunately, the plan backfired as it only brought in around $1.2m from its opening day. The remake of the 1972 Blaxploitation film, ‘Super Fly’, stars Jason Mitchell, Rick Ross, and Michael K. Williams, and is produced by rapper, Future. What it will inevitably lack in Box Office numbers (not helped by a 53% on Rotten Tomatoes), it’ll at least make up for in catchy songs (the soundtrack features everybody from Future to Miguel), and a stylistic look, as Director X (known for many famous music videos) takes charge. We’re not expecting this to really take off, and will only see around $4.5m from Friday to Sunday.

What else is on?

Ocean’s 8’ looks to cement second place with around $20.8m, a 50% drop from last weekend. Its daily changes almost mirror that of ‘Ghostbusters’, which saw a 54% fall in its second weekend. Superhero flick, ‘Deadpool 2’ looks to close in on the $300m domestic mark and, although it won’t hit it this week, a $7.5m gross will aid its pursuit. ‘Incredibles 2’ won’t affect it too much, but it will see a massive impact on ‘Solo’, which could have a large chunk of its audience lost to the animated blockbuster. A gross around $6.3m is similar to what we believe ‘Hereditary’ will land in its second weekend, showing that audiences weren’t as put off as its Cinemascore suggests. Although horrors are quite a front-loaded genre, ‘Hereditary’ should take advantage of a summer that promises a leggy run.

Next is ‘Infinity War’, which recently became the first ever comic book movie to make $2bn worldwide. Its run in recent weekends has been particularly impressive and will continue in the face of superhero competition, with a $4m gross. Finally, we have ‘Book Club’ with an estimated $2.8m, and ‘Adrift’, which barely remains afloat on $2.6m.

Is ‘Incredibles 2going to break the animated opening record, or will it fall just short of ‘Finding Dory’? Let us know your thoughts on Twitter and Instagram – we’re at @JUMPCUT_ONLINE.

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