Weekend BO Predictions: ‘Life Of The Party’ & ‘Breaking In’ Welcome Strong Weekend For Newcomers as ‘Infinity War’ Makes It 3 In A Row

Written by Dapo Olowu

Two new wide releases, ‘Life of the Party’ and ‘Breaking In’, enter the frame this weekend, looking comfortable to snatch the podium spots below ‘Infinity War’. Meanwhile, the older releases continue to battle for a top ten finish. What will the newbies make, and how will the other films fare this weekend?

So, what’s opening?

Melissa McCarthy comedies can typically fall into two categories, based on their critical reception. First, you have the well-received, fan-loved ‘Bridesmaids’, ‘Spy’, and ‘The Heat’, with the first two in particular viewed as some of the best comedies released in the past decade. You’re then faced with the second group, one that involves ‘Tammy’, ‘The Boss’, and ‘Identity Thief’ – all of which are under 25% on Rotten Tomatoes. These inconsistencies only stretch as far as reviews, however, as her movies are (almost) always guaranteed money-makers. ‘Tammy’, her lowest opening out of the 6 (and another directed by husband Ben Falcone), brought in a solid $21.6m in its first 3 days back in the summer of 2014, meaning that, apart from ‘St. Vincent’ and ‘This Is 40’, Melissa McCarthy movies consistently hit the $20m opening figure – an underrated Box Office achievement.

With ‘Life of the Party’, Melissa McCarthy goes back to college, and like another University-focused comedy in 2016 (‘Neighbors 2’), we’re seeing this opening with a little over $20m. ‘Neighbors 2’ similarly opened 2 weeks after another MCU behemoth, ‘Civil War’, and was able to offset its audience-limiting R-rating (and direct competition withThe Nice Guys’) by being the sequel to a film that made $150m in the U.S. a couple of years before. ‘Life of the Party’, however, isn’t a sequel, but it only has a PG-13 rating and is at the advantage of opening after competition like ‘Overboard’ and ‘I Feel Pretty’. Adding the fact that Melissa McCarthy is basically immune to bad reviews (apart fromGhostbusters’), I wouldn’t be surprised if we saw an opening of $22m.

We also have ‘Breaking In’ entering cinemas across the States this weekend, and honestly these types of thrillers are both a joy and a curse to predict. It’s the lack of specific-ness surrounding the thriller genre that gets me – will it be another ‘Traffik’, or a ‘Get Out’? The film, starring Gabrielle Union and opening in around 2,600 cinemas, does exactly what it says on the tin, and features Union battling convicts as they try to force their way into her deceased father’s mansion. After looking at a few similar films with female leads (‘Acrimony’, ‘Proud Mary’, ‘Kidnap’, ‘Strangers: Prey at Night’), we saw that they all a) open in around 2,500 cinemas and b) have a per-cinema average opening of between $4,000 and $8,000. So, with this, ‘Breaking In’ should open to between $15m and $16m.

What else is on?

Of course, we can’t forget ‘Infinity War’, which will secure another 1st place finish this weekend with an estimated $58.5m gross. The predicted 49% drop comes from the fact that there’s now no U.S. Thursday preview number from the first weekend to contend with, giving us a smaller figure than the 55.5% we saw last weekend. The big news here, however, is that the film is finally opening in China, and has potential to absolutely demolish the records that stand over there. Its already earned $9.2m from midnight screenings on Thursday – the second biggest figure ever, behind the $9.8m made by ‘Fate of the Furious’ last year; it will even hope to break ‘F8’s record as the biggest Hollywood film in China ever, by pulling in over $392m.

Overboard’s competition from ‘Life of the Party’ almost mirrors ‘How to Be a Latin Lover’s 58% fall in its 2nd weekend last year, after it had to contend with ‘Guardians of the Galaxy 2’ – so a similar drop is in play. Next is ‘A Quiet Place’, which is sitting just behind ‘Infinity War’ and ‘Black Panther’ in the U.S. domestic charts this year, and should thus drop around 30% again this weekend for a total domestic gross nearing $170m. This weekend will also be an impressive one for ‘Rampage’, closing in on the $90m domestic mark with a $2.8m gross. This estimated 40% fall will be similar to its drop last weekend. Luckily, it’s made its money before ‘Deadpool 2’ and ‘Solo’ open in the upcoming weeks.

I Feel Pretty’ has been defying the odds every weekend with impressive drops, but surely, surely, this is the weekend where direct competitor ‘Life of the Party’ gives Amy Schumer’s comedy a run for its money, and leads to a 55% fall from last weekend. With a break-even point between $70m and $90m, there’s fear that ‘I Feel Pretty’ is coming to an ugly Box Office end. The same can’t be said for ‘Black Panther’ which, in the week where it became available for digital download, looks to become the only (alongside 1989s ‘Batman’) superhero film to ever have 13 consecutive weeks in the top 10; it should see a 3-day gross of just over $2m, putting it firmly in 8th place. Finally, we have ‘Tully’ and ‘Truth or Dare’ rounding off the top 10 with $1.9m and $1.2m respectively.

What are your estimates? Where will ‘Life of the Party’ land? How impressed have you been with ‘A Quiet Place’s numbers? Let us know on Twitter – we’re at @JUMPCUT_ONLINE.

Rank Last Week’s Rank Film US Gross so far Budget Jumpcut’s prediction Weekend drop Week no. BoxOfficeMojo’s prediction Deadline’s Prediction Variety’s Prediction
1 1 Avengers: Infinity War $479.1m $300m+ $58.5m -49% 3 $62m $60m-$63m $50m-$60m
2 Life of the Party $30m $22m 1 $21m $18m-$21m $18m-$21m
3 Breaking In $15.6m 1 $18m $14m-$17m $14m-$17m
4 2 Overboard $18.4m $12m $6.5m -56% 2 $9m
5 3 A Quiet Place $162.4m $17m $5.4m -30% 6 $4.8m
6 5 Rampage $86m $120m $2.8m -40% 5 $2.5m
7 4 I Feel Pretty $39.7m $32m $2.3m -55% 4 $2.9m
8 7 Black Panther $694m $200m $2.1m -35% 13 $2.1m
9 6 Tully $4.4m $1.9m -42% 2 $1.8m
10 7 Truth or Dare $38.7m $2.5m $1.2m -37% 5
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Weekend BO Results: ‘Super Troopers 2’ Steals The Show As ‘A Quiet Place’ Sneaks Back To #1

Written by Dapo Olowu

What do you get when you make an R-rated sequel to a 2002 cult classic, that made under $20m domestically, and opened in only 2,000 cinemas? Well, you get a film making a ground-breaking $15.2m in 3 days, absolutely smashing pre-release estimates (including ours).

Yes, ‘Super Troopers 2’, which came in at number 4 in the Box Office charts this weekend, smashed the $5m-$6m 3-day prediction in its first official night, with $7.95m in the bank on Friday. I can’t stress enough how well this film has done; with 1,400 cinemas less than ‘Zoolander 2’ (and with an R-rating), ‘Super Troopers 2’ still made $1m more in its opening weekend (and is just $3.2m short of the entire domestic total of the first ‘Super Troopers’ film in 2002). Incredible.

Jumping to the top of the leaderboard now, it was ‘A Quiet Place’, starring John Krasinski and Emily Blunt, that crept back into first place with $20.9m. It fought off tough competition with ‘Rampage’, with the two just $800k apart in this weekend’s results. The burgeoning rivalry ends, however, when comparing domestic totals: as ‘A Quiet Place’ is now the 2nd biggest film of the year in the U.S., with $131.3m, it’s sitting pretty worldwide at $206m, with ‘Get Out’ ($255m) and ‘Split’ ($278.5m) firmly in its sights. This is a much-needed win for Paramount Studios, who haven’t seen a film hit these domestic heights since ‘Star Trek: Beyond’ made $158.8m back in 2016.

Let’s not take anything away from ‘Rampage’, though. With just a 44% drop this weekend (better than the 2nd weekend fall of ‘Tarzan’, a summer movie and all), it’s succeeding in its attempt to make as much money as possible before the juggernaut that is ‘Infinity War’ drops in a few days. This is the case internationally too, as it topped non-US markets with a solid $57m from 61 countries. Worldwide, its total of $283.3m (including $65.6m in the US, and $56m in China) is a brilliant return on its $120m investment so far, and it should break-even if it makes around $100m more.

I Feel Pretty’ came in 3rd with a little over $16m. Although it’s Amy Schumer’s worst opening yet (continuing a discouraging downwards trend), we need to remember that a $16m opening from a $32m budget isn’t the worst start in the world. It faired well with its target audience too, (under-18s gave it an A+ on Cinemascore), hopefully indicating a decent Box Office run to come. Another female-focused movie, ‘Truth or Dare’, performed as predicted and dropped by around 60% in its 2nd weekend. The frontloaded-horror is performing similarly to other teen-oriented scares like ‘Unfriended’ and ‘Happy Death Day’, and will probably finish with a domestic total of around $38m-$41m.

Two films that held up surprisingly well this weekend were ‘Ready Player One’ and ‘Blockers’, with their smallest weekend drops to date (35.6% and 36.5%) showing that drops in cinema counts aren’t as impactful as first imagined. The same can be said for ‘Black Panther’, whose remarkable 15% drop this week leaves it with a strong chance to remain in the Box Office’s top 10 when ‘Infinity War’ comes out. The last time 2 films of the same franchise were in the top ten? Ten years ago. The films? ‘Iron Man’ and ‘The Incredible Hulk’. The power of the MCU, eh?

Finally, ‘Traffik’ impressed in only 1,000 cinemas with a respectable $3.9m opening, and ‘Isle of Dogs’ dropped by just 37% to post a 3-day cume of $3.5m. The big question now is, how will all of these fair when ‘The Avengers: Infinity War’ hits American cinemas on Friday? I’ll be back before the weekend with my predictions, but feel free to let us know yours on Twitter at @JUMPCUT_ONLINE.

Rank Last Week Rank Film Weekend Gross Total U.S. Gross Weekend drop Jumpcut’s prediction Difference Week number
1 2 A Quiet Place $20.9m $131.3m -36.6% $22.4m $1.5m 3
2 1 Rampage $20.1m $65.7m -43.8% $21.1m $1m 2
3 I Feel Pretty $16m $16m $13.5m $2.5m 1
4 Super Troopers 2 $15.2m $15.2m $5m $10.2m 1
5 3 Truth or Dare $7.8m $30.3m -58.3% $7.1m $0.7m 2
6 4 Ready Player One $7.4m $126.1m -35.6% $5.8m $1.6m 4
7 5 Blockers $6.8m $48.1m -36.5% $5.1m $1.7m 3
8 6 Black Panther $4.9m $681.4m -14.6% $3.9m $1m 10
9 Traffik $3.9m $3.9m $2.7m $1.2m 1
10 7 Isle of Dogs $3.5m $24.4m -36.8% $2.5m $1m 5

Weekend BO Predictions: ‘Rampage’ vs. ‘A Quiet Place’ 2: Electric Booglaoo

Written by Dapo Olowu

Three new films are released wide this weekend in the US, led by Amy Schumer’s feel-good comedy, ‘I Feel Pretty’. Not forgetting, it’s also another Box Office title-fight between ‘Rampage’ and ‘A Quiet Place’, mirroring last week’s close encounter. Will The Rock deliver the knockout again, or will ‘A Quiet Place’ finally prevail?

So, what’s opening this weekend?

Opening in 3,000 cinemas is ‘I Feel Pretty’, the PG-13 comedy that cost a pricey $32m and completes the trilogy of Amy Schumer-led films in recent years. After the success of 2015’s ‘Trainwreck’, and the disappointment of 2017’s ‘Snatched’ (both R-rated), it’s safe to say that STXfilms (of ‘Bad Moms’ fame) will be hoping ‘I Feel Pretty’ continues where ‘Trainwreck’ left off, and lands big.

However, it’s a hard one to predict. Its poor 35% on Rotten Tomatoes won’t allow for the greatest word-of-mouth, and Amy Schumer’s waning popularity means that she isn’t as big of a draw as she was 3 years ago (all-in-all, making for a weak opening). But, on the other hand, being rated PG-13 opens it up to a wider audience and we should never underestimate the allure of original comedic content, especially in the aftermath of ‘Game Night’ and ‘Blockers’. Our prediction? The young, female audience that ‘I Feel Pretty’ is aiming for might have already had their fill in the last couple of weeks, and the critics aren’t pulling their punches with this one, so we’re thinking an opening of $13.5m.

What do you get when you make an R-rated sequel to a 2002 cult classic, that made under $20m domestically, and is opening in only 2,000 cinemas? Well, you get Jay Chandrasekhar’s ‘Super Troopers 2’, the police-comedy that’s even harder to predict than ‘I Feel Pretty’. Seriously, we’ve been left scratching our heads at the comparable obscurity; ‘Zoolander 2’ is too popular, ‘Johnny English: Reborn’ isn’t popular enough. The only thing I was left with, was comparing this to 2016’s unfortunate flop ‘Popstar: Never Stop Never Stopping’, which opened to $4.7m in early July. The lack of ST2’s summer release is offset by its cult following, so we’re set on roughly the $5m mark in its release.

Finally, this weekend gives us ‘Traffik’, starring Omar Epps and Paula Patton. By opening in only 1,000 cinemas, its gross is severely limited, especially as it doesn’t even have the luxury of being based on a book, like 2014’s ‘Addicted’ that opened with an impressive $7.5m from just 850 cinemas. With ‘Traffik’, I’m using the per-cinema average of another recent small release thriller that heavily featured African-Americans: ‘Til Death To Us Part’ (2017). From 560 cinemas, it made on average $2,700 in its first week, which will give ‘Traffik’ a very respectable (and possibly optimistic) $2.7m in its opening weekend.

What else is on?

It’s round 2 of ‘A Quiet Place’ vs. ‘Rampage’ for the number one spot again – both have been near-identical in their daily grosses since last weekend. While many expect the child-friendly ‘Rampage’ to have made more money over the weekend, when kids aren’t in school, ‘A Quiet Place’ has held its own very well, even against competition from ‘Truth or Dare’. After all considerations, we’re going with ‘A Quiet Place’ to win this contest in a close affair.

After ‘Truth or Dare’ surprised us last weekend, with a brilliant gross of $18.7m, normal service should resume with the horror looking to run similarly to ‘Happy Death Day’ and ‘Unfriended’, giving it a pretty big second-weekend drop of over 60%. These ‘teenage’ horror movies are usually front-loaded, so don’t be surprised if it struggles to even hit a 2x domestic gross/opening weekend multiplier – ‘Happy Death Day’ (2.14x) and ‘Unfriended’ (2.05x) barely did.

Ready Player One’ continues to haemorrhage cinemas and could even lose another 200-400 this week, leading to a potential 50% drop in grossing. Meanwhile, ‘Black Panther’ continues its majestic run and will remain firmly in the top 10 this week, continuing its trend of small weekend drops. The latter can’t be said for ‘Blockers’, which will face big competition for viewers with the release of ‘I Feel Pretty’, and may see an even larger weekend drop than last week’s 48%.

Finally, Wes Anderson’s ‘Isle of Dogs’ will look to at least remain stable after a poor showing last week. The number of cinemas it showed in rose by 350%, but its weekend grossing only increased by 20%, a poor number whichever way you look at it. We’re thinking it’ll play more like Fantastic Mr. Fox did in 2009, after its wide release, and will have a pretty substantial drop.

Check out our full predictions below. Do you agree or disagree? Let us know on Twitter by @’ing our handle @JUMPCUT_ONLINE.

Rank Last Week’s Rank Film US Gross so far Budget Jumpcut’s prediction Weekend drop Week no. Deadline’s prediction BoxOfficeMojo’s prediction Variety’s prediction
1 2 A Quiet Place $108m $17m $22.4m -32% 3 $20m-$21m $21m $20m-$25m
2 1 Rampage $43.7m $120m $21.1m -41% 2 $20m-$21m $17m $18m-$20m
3 I Feel Pretty $32m $13.5m 1 $15m $13m-$15m $15m
4 3 Truth or Dare $21.7m $3.5m $7.1m -62% 2 $7.5m
5 4 Ready Player One $117.8m $175m $5.8m -50% 4 $7m
6 5 Blockers $40.4m $21m $5.1m -53% 3 $6.5m
7 Super Troopers 2 $4.4m $5m 1 $6m $6m-$7m $6m
8 6 Black Panther $675.9m $200m $3.9m -33% 10 $3.8m
9 Traffik $2.7m 1 $3m-$4m $3.5m $3m-$4m
10 7 Isle of Dogs $20.5m $2.5m -55% 5 $3.6m