Two new wide releases, ‘Life of the Party’ and ‘Breaking In’, enter the frame this weekend, looking comfortable to snatch the podium spots below ‘Infinity War’. Meanwhile, the older releases continue to battle for a top ten finish. What will the newbies make, and how will the other films fare this weekend?
So, what’s opening?
Melissa McCarthy comedies can typically fall into two categories, based on their critical reception. First, you have the well-received, fan-loved ‘Bridesmaids’, ‘Spy’, and ‘The Heat’, with the first two in particular viewed as some of the best comedies released in the past decade. You’re then faced with the second group, one that involves ‘Tammy’, ‘The Boss’, and ‘Identity Thief’ – all of which are under 25% on Rotten Tomatoes. These inconsistencies only stretch as far as reviews, however, as her movies are (almost) always guaranteed money-makers. ‘Tammy’, her lowest opening out of the 6 (and another directed by husband Ben Falcone), brought in a solid $21.6m in its first 3 days back in the summer of 2014, meaning that, apart from ‘St. Vincent’ and ‘This Is 40’, Melissa McCarthy movies consistently hit the $20m opening figure – an underrated Box Office achievement.
With ‘Life of the Party’, Melissa McCarthy goes back to college, and like another University-focused comedy in 2016 (‘Neighbors 2’), we’re seeing this opening with a little over $20m. ‘Neighbors 2’ similarly opened 2 weeks after another MCU behemoth, ‘Civil War’, and was able to offset its audience-limiting R-rating (and direct competition with ‘The Nice Guys’) by being the sequel to a film that made $150m in the U.S. a couple of years before. ‘Life of the Party’, however, isn’t a sequel, but it only has a PG-13 rating and is at the advantage of opening after competition like ‘Overboard’ and ‘I Feel Pretty’. Adding the fact that Melissa McCarthy is basically immune to bad reviews (apart from ‘Ghostbusters’), I wouldn’t be surprised if we saw an opening of $22m.
We also have ‘Breaking In’ entering cinemas across the States this weekend, and honestly these types of thrillers are both a joy and a curse to predict. It’s the lack of specific-ness surrounding the thriller genre that gets me – will it be another ‘Traffik’, or a ‘Get Out’? The film, starring Gabrielle Union and opening in around 2,600 cinemas, does exactly what it says on the tin, and features Union battling convicts as they try to force their way into her deceased father’s mansion. After looking at a few similar films with female leads (‘Acrimony’, ‘Proud Mary’, ‘Kidnap’, ‘Strangers: Prey at Night’), we saw that they all a) open in around 2,500 cinemas and b) have a per-cinema average opening of between $4,000 and $8,000. So, with this, ‘Breaking In’ should open to between $15m and $16m.
What else is on?
Of course, we can’t forget ‘Infinity War’, which will secure another 1st place finish this weekend with an estimated $58.5m gross. The predicted 49% drop comes from the fact that there’s now no U.S. Thursday preview number from the first weekend to contend with, giving us a smaller figure than the 55.5% we saw last weekend. The big news here, however, is that the film is finally opening in China, and has potential to absolutely demolish the records that stand over there. Its already earned $9.2m from midnight screenings on Thursday – the second biggest figure ever, behind the $9.8m made by ‘Fate of the Furious’ last year; it will even hope to break ‘F8’s record as the biggest Hollywood film in China ever, by pulling in over $392m.
‘Overboard’s competition from ‘Life of the Party’ almost mirrors ‘How to Be a Latin Lover’s 58% fall in its 2nd weekend last year, after it had to contend with ‘Guardians of the Galaxy 2’ – so a similar drop is in play. Next is ‘A Quiet Place’, which is sitting just behind ‘Infinity War’ and ‘Black Panther’ in the U.S. domestic charts this year, and should thus drop around 30% again this weekend for a total domestic gross nearing $170m. This weekend will also be an impressive one for ‘Rampage’, closing in on the $90m domestic mark with a $2.8m gross. This estimated 40% fall will be similar to its drop last weekend. Luckily, it’s made its money before ‘Deadpool 2’ and ‘Solo’ open in the upcoming weeks.
‘I Feel Pretty’ has been defying the odds every weekend with impressive drops, but surely, surely, this is the weekend where direct competitor ‘Life of the Party’ gives Amy Schumer’s comedy a run for its money, and leads to a 55% fall from last weekend. With a break-even point between $70m and $90m, there’s fear that ‘I Feel Pretty’ is coming to an ugly Box Office end. The same can’t be said for ‘Black Panther’ which, in the week where it became available for digital download, looks to become the only (alongside 1989s ‘Batman’) superhero film to ever have 13 consecutive weeks in the top 10; it should see a 3-day gross of just over $2m, putting it firmly in 8th place. Finally, we have ‘Tully’ and ‘Truth or Dare’ rounding off the top 10 with $1.9m and $1.2m respectively.
What are your estimates? Where will ‘Life of the Party’ land? How impressed have you been with ‘A Quiet Place’s numbers? Let us know on Twitter – we’re at @JUMPCUT_ONLINE.
|Rank||Last Week’s Rank||Film||US Gross so far||Budget||Jumpcut’s prediction||Weekend drop||Week no.||BoxOfficeMojo’s prediction||Deadline’s Prediction||Variety’s Prediction|
|1||1||Avengers: Infinity War||$479.1m||$300m+||$58.5m||-49%||3||$62m||$60m-$63m||$50m-$60m|
|2||–||Life of the Party||–||$30m||$22m||–||1||$21m||$18m-$21m||$18m-$21m|
|5||3||A Quiet Place||$162.4m||$17m||$5.4m||-30%||6||$4.8m||–||–|
|7||4||I Feel Pretty||$39.7m||$32m||$2.3m||-55%||4||$2.9m||–||–|
|10||7||Truth or Dare||$38.7m||$2.5m||$1.2m||-37%||5||–||–||–|